Alain Cawley
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 20 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.93). Rides mostly for Micky Hammond — 62% of rides in the window.
Micky Hammond supplies 62% of the rides and edges the rider's average (10.5% vs 8.1%, A/E 1.16) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well in Hurdle races (12.7%, n=63) and off a 31-60-day break (11.8%, n=34). The market has also underrated the rider over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 1.24 across 51 rides (9.8% strike, +79.13 to a £1 stake). The record reads poorly in Chase races — 4.2% over 48 rides, 3.9pts below the baseline. 11 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown (Feb 2010, £103,500). The standout partner of the record: Knocknamona (IRE) — 7 wins from 30 rides together.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.1% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 3,183 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 3,183 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 20 May 2005 to 7 September 2022.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Alain Cawley's strike rate?
- Alain Cawley has won 10 of 123 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which yard does Alain Cawley ride most for?
- Micky Hammond, with 76 rides since 2022 — 62% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (10.5%).
- What is Alain Cawley's Fair A/E?
- 0.93, from 123 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.