What is Niall Kelly's strike rate?

Niall Kelly has won 22 of 452 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 4.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Niall Kelly do best at?

Punchestown by strike rate: 3 wins from 52 rides (5.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Niall Kelly ride most for?

A L T Moore, with 54 rides since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 5 (9.3%).

What is Niall Kelly's Fair A/E?

0.85, from 452 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Niall Kelly

452 rides in the lifetime window · 304 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Nov 2018

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

22–452

Wins / Runs

4.9%

Strike rate

n=452

90 (20%)

Placed

0.85

Fair A/E

n=452 · 0.65 incl. margin

−150.80

£1 level stake

n=452 at SP · −33.4%

£273k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 40 times a season, winning on 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.85).

Deterministic profile computed from 452 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance A L T Moore: 9.3% from 54

The read

A L T Moore supplied 12% of the rides and edges the rider's average (9.3% vs 4.9%, A/E 1.32) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also read well off a 8-14-day break (7.9%, n=38).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

4.6%−0.3

n=303 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −93.93

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

18.8%+13.9

n=16 · A/E 1.32 · £1 −6.62

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

2.4%−2.5

n=82 · A/E 0.50 · £1 −31.00

When favourite

23.1%

n=13 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −5.80

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

4.8%−0.1

n=435 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −139.30

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.8%−0.1

n=269 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −41.25

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−4.9

n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With A L T Moore 9.3% vs 4.9% · n=54

With W P Mullins 9.5% vs 4.9% · n=42

In Flat races 2% vs 4.9% · n=49

Off a 8-14-day break 7.9% vs 4.9% · n=38

On Good to Soft going 2.1% vs 4.9% · n=47

Off a 61-180-day break 2.2% vs 4.9% · n=45

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

NH Flat 203 12 5.9% +21.75

Hurdle 153 7 4.6% −90.18

Flat 49 1 2% −46.62

Chase 47 2 4.3% −35.75

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Soft 143 7 4.9% −41.75

Good 125 7 5.6% −21.18

Heavy 99 4 4% −50.87

Good to Soft 47 1 2.1% −30.00

Good to Firm 32 2 6.3% −18.00

Standard (AW) 5 1 20% +12.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Punchestown 52 3 5.8% +2.75

Cork 31 1 3.2% −23.00

Fairyhouse 31 1 3.2% +3.00

Limerick 28 0 0% −28.00

Clonmel 27 2 7.4% −8.43

Kilbeggan 21 1 4.8% −17.25

Down Royal 21 2 9.5% −4.50

Gowran Park 20 1 5% −14.00

Thurles 20 1 5% +31.00

Leopardstown 20 1 5% +1.00

Wexford 20 1 5% −12.00

Navan 19 1 5.3% −6.00

Tipperary 15 0 0% −15.00

Galway 14 0 0% −14.00

Ballinrobe 14 2 14.3% +10.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 13 0 0% −13.00

Class 4 1 1 100% +6.00

Class 5 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 18 4 22.2% 0.83 −5.30

2nd–3rd fav 48 6 12.5% 0.95 −11.50

4th–6th fav 109 4 3.7% 0.54 −65.00

7th+ in betting 277 8 2.9% 1.08 −69.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

84.5% completed · 200 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 47 63.8% 5 5 5 1 1

Hurdle 153 90.8% 4 1 8 0 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Icantsay (IRE) 7 0 3 20 Jun 16

Tortueuse (IRE) 6 0 0 4 Jun 16

Missunited (IRE) 6 3 5 22 Sep 12

Toor Brook Honours (IRE) 6 0 1 10 Mar 11

Right Turn Clive (IRE) 5 0 1 7 Nov 16

Graney Town (IRE) 5 1 2 19 Aug 16

Storm Away (IRE) 5 0 2 30 May 16

Amron Kali (IRE) 5 0 0 27 Oct 15

King Willie (IRE) 5 0 1 22 Aug 15

Old Supporter (IRE) 5 1 2 17 Aug 13

Clash Of Kings (IRE) 5 0 1 25 Nov 12

Brownstown Girl (IRE) 5 0 1 11 Feb 12

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 304 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

4587348013203

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardA L T Moore

12% of all rides
9.3% SR · A/E 1.32

TrainerRWSR£1

A L T Moore 54 5 9.3% +37.00

W P Mullins 42 4 9.5% −16.43

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

Archived wins

£278k

Prize money

2009

Best season · 5 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Shamiran (IRE) — Martinstown Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle (95-123) Punchestown · Apr 2016

£18,450

Missunited (IRE) — Listowel Races Supporters Club Slan Abhaile (Q.R.) Race Listowel · Sep 2012

£13,000

Lastoftheleaders (IRE) — Mitsubishi Diamond Vision (Pro/Am) Flat Race Punchestown · May 2009

£9,674

Notable horses

Missunited (IRE) Graney Town (IRE) Old Supporter (IRE) Sharps Choice (GB) Fruitful Venture (IRE) Backinthesaddle (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Oscar (IRE) 5.6% · 1–18

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Flemensfirth (USA) 0% · 0–17

Progeny have won 11.9% of 17,288 runs since 2008 (1,595 horses).

City Honours (USA) 0% · 0–13

Progeny have won 8% of 1,050 runs since 2008 (125 horses).

Golan (IRE) 23.1% · 3–13

Progeny have won 8.7% of 3,151 runs since 2008 (288 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.4% from 258.

Kalanisi (IRE) 0% · 0–13

Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,750 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.

Indian Danehill (IRE) 0% · 0–11

Progeny have won 8.6% of 2,742 runs since 2008 (216 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 11.9% from 143.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 456 · newest first

The latest 50 of 456 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 1 February 2007 to 4 November 2018.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Nov 18 Cork Port Rashid (IRE)T: Timothy Townend Whatoddspaddy Handicap Hurdle (80-116)20f · Good To Yielding · 23 ran 7th 33/1

20 Sep 18 Clonmel Irish Lass (IRE)T: W P Mullins New Inn Opportunity Rated Novice Hurdle19.5f · Good To Yielding · 6 ran 4th 2/1F

20 Sep 18 Clonmel Koroleva (IRE)T: W P Mullins Kilsheelan Mares Maiden Hurdle19.5f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 4th 4/1

20 Sep 18 Clonmel Eight And Bob (GB)T: W P Mullins Giantsgrave Handicap Hurdle (80-95)16.5f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 12th EvensF

15 Sep 18 Listowel Lareena (FR)T: W P Mullins M.J. Carroll ARRO Handicap Hurdle20f · Soft · 14 ran 9th 8/1

08 Sep 18 Wexford Sweet Destination (IRE)T: G Ahern Dan Byrne Memorial Handicap Chase (0-102)25f · Yielding · 14 ran 2nd 16/1

11 Aug 18 Kilbeggan (IRE) Sharps Choice (GB)T: W P Mullins Kieran Kelly Memorial Beginners Chase20f · Good · 8 ran F 9/2

04 Aug 18 Galway Meri Devie (FR)T: W P Mullins Galway Shopping Centre Handicap Hurdle (grade B)23f · Yielding To Soft · 20 ran 7th 20/1

27 Jul 18 Wexford Port Rashid (IRE)T: Timothy Townend Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Chase (0-109)16f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 6/1

20 Jul 18 Kilbeggan Sharps Choice (GB)T: W P Mullins Irish Stallion Farms Ebf Beginners Chase22f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 12/1

29 May 18 Ballinrobe True Self (IRE)T: W P Mullins McHale Coranna Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 16 ran 6th 11/2F

29 May 18 Ballinrobe American Tom (FR)T: W P Mullins McHale Pro Glide Mower Range Hurdle16.5f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 12/1

14 May 18 Killarney Didero Vallis (FR)T: W P Mullins Easy Clean Limited Handicap Hurdle22f · Good · 15 ran 3rd 13/2

28 Apr 18 Punchestown Bunk Off Early (IRE)T: W P Mullins Ballymore Handicap Hurdle (Grade B)20f · Yielding To Soft · 24 ran 4th 28/1

25 Apr 18 Punchestown Caro Des Flos (FR)T: W P Mullins Adare Manor Opportunity Series Final Handicap Hurdle (95-123)21f · Yielding · 24 ran 5th 10/1

17 Apr 18 Fairyhouse Voix Du Reve (FR)T: W P Mullins Rybo Handicap Hurdle (grade A)16f · Soft · 19 ran 11th 10/1

02 Apr 18 Cork Defy De Mee (FR)T: W P Mullins Mallow Maiden Hurdle24f · Heavy · 10 ran 5th 3/1

01 Apr 18 Cork Didero Vallis (FR)T: W P Mullins Fbd Insurance Handicap Hurdle (0-145) (grade B)19f · Soft To Heavy · 17 ran 3rd 20/1

24 Mar 18 Thurles Winter Soldier (FR)T: W P Mullins Adare Manor Opportunity Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 15 ran 4th 11/4

21 Feb 18 Punchestown Hackets Folly (IRE)T: William P Murphy Festival Free Upgrade Offer Ends Soon Handicap Hurdle (80-95)20f · Soft To Heavy · 10 ran 4th 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Niall Kelly's strike rate?: Niall Kelly has won 22 of 452 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 4.9% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Niall Kelly do best at?: Punchestown by strike rate: 3 wins from 52 rides (5.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Niall Kelly ride most for?: A L T Moore, with 54 rides since 2008 — 12% of the total. That pairing has won 5 (9.3%).
What is Niall Kelly's Fair A/E?: 0.85, from 452 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.