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Trainer profile

P Hogan

129 runners in the lifetime window · 9 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Nov 2017 95% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
4–129
Wins / Runs
3.1%
Strike rate
n=129
13 (10%)
Placed
0.77
Fair A/E
n=129 · 0.57 incl. margin
−78.00
£1 level stake
n=129 at SP · −60.5%
£40,689
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.77).

Deterministic profile computed from 129 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 22 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 3.7%
The read

The yard also read well over 2m5f – 3m (10%, n=30). The record read poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 0% over 51 runners, 3.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 15-30-day break: Fair A/E 0.40 across 52 runners (1.9% strike, −48.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.9%+3.8
n=29 · A/E 2.13 · £1 +8.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−3.1
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−3.1
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−3.1
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−3.1
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=3 · A/E 1.79 · £1 +1.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.7%+0.6
n=82 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −57.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−3.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 2m5f – 3m 10% vs 3.1% · n=30
With a new jockey booking 6.3% vs 3.1% · n=48
Over 1m5f – 2m 0% vs 3.1% · n=51
Off a 15-30-day break 1.9% vs 3.1% · n=52 · A/E 0.40
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 94 4 4.3% −43.00
NH Flat 17 0 0% −17.00
Chase 11 0 0% −11.00
Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 44 1 2.3% −18.00
Soft 42 2 4.8% −27.00
Heavy 15 0 0% −15.00
Good to Soft 14 1 7.1% −4.00
Good to Firm 13 0 0% −13.00
Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Punchestown 16 1 6.3% −6.00
Cork 14 0 0% −14.00
Gowran Park 11 1 9.1% +0.00
Tipperary 11 1 9.1% +15.00
Thurles 10 1 10% −6.00
Limerick 10 0 0% −10.00
Clonmel 9 0 0% −9.00
Kilbeggan 7 0 0% −7.00
Roscommon 7 0 0% −7.00
Navan 7 0 0% −7.00
Wexford 5 0 0% −5.00
Naas 4 0 0% −4.00
Wexford 4 0 0% −4.00
Killarney 3 0 0% −3.00
Fairyhouse 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 4 1 25% 1.39 +0.00
2nd–3rd fav 3 0 0% 0.00 −3.00
4th–6th fav 31 2 6.5% 1.17 −10.00
7th+ in betting 91 1 1.1% 0.40 −65.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
87.6% completed · 105 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 11 54.5% 1 2 2 0 0
Hurdle 94 91.5% 0 0 8 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Cool Oscar (IRE) 46 4 8 22 Jul 16
Ballyine (IRE) 23 0 1 2 Sep 16
Prayer From Heaven (IRE) 19 0 2 28 Jul 12
Perfect Leader (IRE)then Ms Margaret Mullins 18 0 2 16 Nov 17
Shine In Dubai (IRE)then Ms Margaret Mullins 13 0 0 23 Nov 17
Tungsten Steel (IRE) 4 0 0 11 Sep 09
Demesne (GB)from Paul Nolan 3 0 0 6 Nov 08
Romantic Moment (IRE)from Timothy Doyle 2 0 0 26 Apr 09
Raggtime Toon (IRE)from Timothy Doyle 1 0 0 22 Mar 09
All 9 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 9 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Timothy Doyle (2); 6 had their first archived run for this yard.

2 have since run for another yard, most often for Ms Margaret Mullins (2); 7 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0·00400001500
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Tommy Brett 16 0 0% −16.00
M P Butler 15 0 0% −15.00
Paddy Kennedy 13 1 7.7% −2.00
Roger Loughran 11 0 0% −11.00
Paul Townend 10 1 10% +16.00
Eddie Power 10 0 0% −10.00
David Splaine 7 1 14.3% +3.00
D G Hogan 6 0 0% −6.00
David Mullins 5 0 0% −5.00
J J Slevin 4 0 0% −4.00
Danny Mullins 4 0 0% −4.00
Mr M Fahey 3 0 0% −3.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
4
Archived wins
£44,314
Prize money
2014
Best season · 1 win
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Cool Oscar (IRE) — Golf Membership At Gowran Park 2011 Maiden Hurdle Gowran Park · Oct 2010
£7,245
Cool Oscar (IRE) — Costellos Tavern Handicap Hurdle (80-102) Tipperary · Oct 2014
£6,210
Cool Oscar (IRE) — Tote Sports Lounge Handicap Hurdle (80-102) Punchestown · May 2013
£5,520
Notable horses
Cool Oscar (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Oscar (IRE) 8.7% · 4–46
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,542 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
Gamut (IRE) 0% · 0–23
Progeny have won 8.7% of 1,838 runs since 2008 (171 horses).
King's Theatre (IRE) 0% · 0–19
Progeny have won 14.4% of 12,129 runs since 2008 (746 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.8% from 125. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.9% from 203.
Let The Lion Roar (GB) 0% · 0–18
Progeny have won 9.7% of 371 runs since 2008 (35 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 13.1% from 130.
Dubai Destination (USA) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 11% of 6,950 runs since 2008 (521 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.9% from 136.
Craigsteel (GB) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,393 runs since 2008 (262 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 291. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.9% from 763.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 153 · newest first

The latest 50 of 153 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 12 November 2005 to 23 November 2017.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
23 Nov 17 Thurles Shine In Dubai (IRE)J: Adam Short Killinan Handicap Hurdle (80-95)16f · Heavy · 17 ran 13th 8/1
16 Nov 17 Clonmel Perfect Leader (IRE)J: Jonathan Moore Clonmel Oil Race Day Handicap Hurdle (80-109)19.5f · Soft To Heavy · 11 ran 9th 7/1
26 Oct 17 Thurles Perfect Leader (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Premier County Handicap Hurdle (80-102)23f · Yielding · 18 ran 9th 12/1
26 Oct 17 Thurles Shine In Dubai (IRE)J: Paul Townend Leugh Handicap Hurdle (80-95)16f · Yielding · 18 ran 7th 10/1
12 Oct 17 Thurles Perfect Leader (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Cashel Handicap Hurdle (80-109)23f · Good To Yielding · 17 ran 12th 11/1
29 Sep 17 Gowran Park Perfect Leader (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Racing Again Tomorrow Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 15 ran 7th 25/1
29 Aug 17 Ballinrobe Shine In Dubai (IRE)J: Paul Townend Corrib Oil Handicap Hurdle (80-95)25f · Yielding To Soft · 16 ran 8th 10/1
29 Aug 17 Ballinrobe Perfect Leader (IRE)J: David Mullins David Heneghan Memorial Handicap Hurdle (80-102)20.5f · Yielding To Soft · 14 ran 7th 9/1
28 Jul 17 Wexford Perfect Leader (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Monart Handicap Hurdle (80-102)20f · Yielding · 14 ran 3rd 14/1
22 Jul 17 Limerick Shine In Dubai (IRE)J: David Mullins Follow Limerick Racecourse On Twitter Handicap Hurdle (80-102)18f · Good · 18 ran 10th 20/1
14 Jul 17 Cork Perfect Leader (IRE)J: Tommy Brett Buy Online At corkracecourse Handicap Hurdle (80-102)16f · Good · 24 ran 10th 12/1
24 Jun 17 Gowran Park Shine In Dubai (IRE)J: Rachael Blackmore Affedia Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Firm · 16 ran 7th 20/1
24 Jun 17 Gowran Park Perfect Leader (IRE)J: Jonathan Moore Gain (C & G) Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 13 ran 5th 20/1
09 Jun 17 Clonmel Shine In Dubai (IRE)J: Tommy Brett BBQ Evening At Clonmel Races Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 5th 100/1
31 May 17 Punchestown Perfect Leader (IRE)J: Jonathan Moore Festival Dreams Begin In Ireland With Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Good · 24 ran 5th 66/1
14 May 17 Killarney Shine In Dubai (IRE)J: Tommy Brett Killarney Towers Hotel Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 13 ran 8th 66/1
11 May 17 Tipperary Perfect Leader (IRE)J: David Mullins Hotel Minella Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 20 ran 13th 28/1
12 Nov 16 Naas Perfect Leader (IRE)J: J J Slevin Call Paddy Power For Free On 1800 721 821 Maiden Hurdle19f · Yielding To Soft · 23 ran 9th 40/1
12 Nov 16 Naas Shine In Dubai (IRE)J: J J Slevin Hospitality At Naas Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding To Soft · 22 ran 16th 66/1
03 Nov 16 Thurles Perfect Leader (IRE)J: Tommy Brett Toboradora Flat Race16f · Good · 9 ran 7th 12/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is P Hogan's strike rate?
P Hogan has won 4 of 129 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.1% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is P Hogan's Fair A/E?
0.77, from 129 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).