M P Butler
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 120 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 6% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.97). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 14% (65 rides). Rode mostly for Eoin Doyle — 44% of rides in the window.
The record is strongest at Downpatrick (17.3%, n=52), Kilbeggan (13%, n=46) and Sligo (11.9%, n=42) — all clear of the rider's 5.8% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 13.8% (n=65, Fair A/E 1.25). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 3.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.69 and −138.25 to a £1 stake over 217 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Eoin Doyle supplied 44% of the rides and edges the rider's average (8.5% vs 5.8%, A/E 1.15) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record read poorly on Soft going — 1.8% over 382 rides, 4pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Ladbrokes.com Handicap Hurdle at Killarney (May 2012, £32,500). The standout partner of the record was Lookoutnow (IRE) — 6 wins from 20 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fired May–Aug.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.8% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Jumping record
completion over obstacles · same window as headerHorses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,305 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,305 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 6 January 2005 to 5 March 2016.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is M P Butler's strike rate?
- M P Butler has won 62 of 1,062 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 5.8% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does M P Butler do best at?
- Downpatrick by strike rate: 9 wins from 52 rides (17.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does M P Butler ride most for?
- Eoin Doyle, with 469 rides since 2008 — 44% of the total. That pairing has won 40 (8.5%).
- What is M P Butler's Fair A/E?
- 0.97, from 1,062 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.