Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 8.2% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
11.1%+2.9
n=18 · A/E 1.44 · £1 +2.90
New recruits · first run for the yard
18.2%+10.0
n=11 · A/E 2.42 · £1 +24.20
Debutants · first career start
0%−8.2
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−8.2
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−8.2
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
28.6%
n=7 · A/E 1.26 · £1 −0.20
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.5%−3.7
n=22 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −3.30
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−8.2
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With a new jockey booking12.2% vs 8.2% · n=41
Over 1m – 1m1f11.3% vs 8.2% · n=62
Off a 15-30-day break10.5% vs 8.2% · n=38
At Chantilly (FR)9.3% vs 8.2% · n=54 · A/E 1.20
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)6757.5%−6.10
Soft1500%−15.00
Good to Soft9111.1%+7.40
Good4250%+49.20
Heavy200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Chantilly (FR)5459.3%+6.90
Deauville (FR)2114.8%−2.80
Longchamp (FR)8225%+43.40
Saint-Cloud (FR)800%−8.00
Dieppe (FR)100%−1.00
Lyon-La Soie (FR)100%−1.00
Maisons-Laffitte (FR)100%−1.00
Cagnes-Sur-Mer (FR)100%−1.00
Compiegne (FR)100%−1.00
Le Lion-D'Angers (FR)100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1400%−4.00
Class 3400%−4.00
Class 4200%−2.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite7228.6%1.26−0.20
2nd–3rd fav700%0.00−7.00
4th–6th fav3213.1%0.41−13.30
7th+ in betting5159.8%2.30+54.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m – 1m1f62711.3%+49.70
1m2f – 1m4f2214.5%−3.20
6f – 7f1200%−12.00
1m5f – 2m100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20181218.3%+4.40
20191317.7%−8.90
20209222.2%+27.90
20211119.1%+24.00
2022900%−9.00
20247114.3%+11.80
20252314.3%−6.40
20261317.7%−10.30
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps5858.6%+34.50
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners5447.4%+4.20
11-13 runners19421.1%+53.30
8-10 runners1400%−14.00
17+ runners600%−6.00
5-7 runners400%−4.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 12 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 12 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from J-C Rouget (2) and Mme Pauline Antoine (2); 1 had its first archived run for this yard.
7 have since run for another yard, most often for V Sartori (3); 5 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
142071125017090140
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 9.6% of 5,237 runs since 2011 (580 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 255.
Denon (USA)0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 4.3% of 323 runs since 2009 (31 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 97 · newest first
The latest 50 of 97 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 10 September 2018 to 31 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Pauline Menges's strike rate?
Pauline Menges has won 8 of 97 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 8.2% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Pauline Menges do best at?
Chantilly (FR) by strike rate: 5 wins from 54 runners (9.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Pauline Menges in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Pauline Menges's Fair A/E?
1.12, from 97 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Pauline Menges·SR 8.2%·A/E 1.12
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