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Trainer profile

Raymond Shiels

110 runners in the lifetime window · 9 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jun 2018 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
7–110
Wins / Runs
6.4%
Strike rate
n=110
23 (21%)
Placed
0.79
Fair A/E
n=109 · 0.76 incl. margin
−61.25
£1 level stake
n=110 at SP · −55.7%
£53,164
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.79). With a claiming rider up the record reads 9% (82 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 110 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 22 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 8.5%
The read

The record read poorly on Good going — 0% over 31 runners, 6.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 0.54 across 51 runners (3.9% strike, −37.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. The stable star of the record was Tikkandemickey (IRE) — 6 wins from 46 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.3%−0.1
n=32 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −13.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.4
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.4
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
25%+18.6
n=4 · A/E 3.63 · £1 +3.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
9.1%+2.7
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.75
When favourite
25%
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.5%+2.1
n=82 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −33.25

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Good going 0% vs 6.4% · n=31
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 3.9% vs 6.4% · n=51
With claiming riders up 8.5% vs 6.4% · n=82
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 62 4 6.5% −29.00
Chase 38 3 7.9% −22.25
NH Flat 10 0 0% −10.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 31 0 0% −31.00
Soft 26 3 11.5% −7.25
Heavy 23 3 13% +2.50
Good to Soft 19 1 5.3% −14.50
Good to Firm 11 0 0% −11.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Hexham 25 5 20% +14.50
Kelso 20 0 0% −20.00
Carlisle 17 1 5.9% −10.00
Sedgefield 13 0 0% −13.00
Perth 12 1 8.3% −9.75
Newcastle 11 0 0% −11.00
Ayr 6 0 0% −6.00
Cartmel 3 0 0% −3.00
Catterick 2 0 0% −2.00
Musselburgh 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 60 5 8.3% −23.00
Class 5 23 2 8.7% −11.25
Class 3 16 0 0% −16.00
Class 6 10 0 0% −10.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 4 1 25% 0.00 −1.75
2nd–3rd fav 18 3 16.7% 1.23 +0.00
4th–6th fav 45 3 6.7% 0.99 −16.50
7th+ in betting 43 0 0% 0.00 −43.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
79% completed · 100 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 38 78.9% 2 1 4 0 1
Hurdle 62 79% 3 3 7 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Tikkandemickey (IRE) 46 6 15 5 May 18
Glaced Over (GB)then Donald McCain 27 0 3 3 Jul 13
Lucarno Dancer (GB)from Iain Jardine · then Donald Whillans 12 1 2 24 Jun 18
Tomzatackman (IRE) 11 0 2 8 Apr 13
Hurricane Basil (IRE) 6 0 0 6 Apr 09
Zoren (FR)from James Ewart 3 0 0 11 Apr 11
Lockstockandbarrel (IRE) 3 0 1 25 Apr 08
Damson Gin (GB) 1 0 0 10 Dec 14
Just Jed (GB) 1 0 0 26 May 08
All 9 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 9 horses listed, 2 arrived from another yard in our archive; 7 had their first archived run for this yard.

2 have since run for another yard; 7 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0050800007240
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Callum Bewley 29 4 13.8% +1.25
Daragh Bourke 22 3 13.6% −3.50
Gary Rutherford 12 0 0% −12.00
Keith Mercer 10 0 0% −10.00
Adrian Lane 8 0 0% −8.00
Wilson Renwick 5 0 0% −5.00
Mr Gillon Crow 5 0 0% −5.00
Callum Whillans 5 0 0% −5.00
Richie McGrath 3 0 0% −3.00
Campbell Gillies 2 0 0% −2.00
Mr Nick Orpwood 2 0 0% −2.00
Thomas Dowson 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
7
Archived wins
£56,843
Prize money
2015
Best season · 2 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Tikkandemickey (IRE) — 188Bet Handicap Chase Hexham · Nov 2015 · Class 4
£5,198
Tikkandemickey (IRE) — Racing UK Available In HD Handicap Chase Carlisle · Oct 2016 · Class 4
£3,899
Tikkandemickey (IRE) — Bond Offshore Helicopters Novices' Chase Perth · May 2015 · Class 5
£3,899
Notable horses
Tikkandemickey (IRE) Lucarno Dancer (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Tikkanen (USA) 13% · 6–46
Progeny have won 9.1% of 2,014 runs since 2008 (170 horses).
Overbury (IRE) 0% · 0–27
Progeny have won 10.7% of 4,657 runs since 2008 (423 horses).
Lucarno (USA) 8.3% · 1–12
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,189 runs since 2008 (140 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 12.9% from 116.
Saddlers' Hall (IRE) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,861 runs since 2008 (460 horses).
Good Thyne (USA) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 5.6% of 503 runs since 2008 (69 horses).
Needle Gun (IRE) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 5% of 1,228 runs since 2008 (139 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 147 · newest first

The latest 50 of 147 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 January 2005 to 24 June 2018.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
24 Jun 18 Hexham Lucarno Dancer (GB)J: Callum Bewley Campbell & Rowley Caterers At Hexham Racecourse Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 9th 14/1
22 May 18 Hexham Lucarno Dancer (GB)J: Callum Bewley Follow Hexham Racecourse On Twitter Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 11 ran F 14/1
05 May 18 Hexham Tikkandemickey (IRE)J: Callum Bewley Kentucky Derby Live Tonight On ATR Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 16 ran 12th 16/1
16 Apr 18 Kelso Tikkandemickey (IRE)J: Callum Bewley Borders Carers Centre Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 21.5f · Heavy · 9 ran 8th 7/1
03 Dec 17 Carlisle Tikkandemickey (IRE)J: Callum Bewley Northern Lights Middle Distance Chase Series Final Handicap ChaseClass 2 · 20f · Soft · 9 ran 3rd 7/1
28 Nov 17 Sedgefield Lucarno Dancer (GB)J: Callum Bewley Betfred Racing 'like Us On Facebook' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 17f · Soft · 12 ran 5th 4/1F
13 Nov 17 Carlisle Tikkandemickey (IRE)J: Callum Bewley Bet At racinguk.com Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Soft · 10 ran 4th 8/1
10 Nov 17 Hexham Lucarno Dancer (GB)J: Callum Bewley Follow Hexham Racecourse On Facebook Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Soft · 16 ran 1st 17/2
26 Oct 17 Carlisle Lucarno Dancer (GB)J: Callum Bewley Watch Racing Uk On Bt Tv Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Heavy · 11 ran 7th 22/1
26 Oct 17 Carlisle Tikkandemickey (IRE)J: Callum Bewley Racing Uk Available In Hd Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Heavy · 10 ran 5th 8/1
06 Oct 17 Hexham Tikkandemickey (IRE)J: Callum Bewley Youngs RPS 'The Winning Combination' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Soft · 5 ran 5th 9/2
20 Sep 17 Kelso Lucarno Dancer (GB)J: Callum Bewley Epds Racing Welfare Bto Series 2017 Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 18f · Good · 16 ran 9th 22/1
13 May 17 Hexham Lucarno Dancer (GB)J: Thomas Dowson greatrun.org Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 66/1
28 Apr 17 Perth Tikkandemickey (IRE)J: Daragh Bourke Heineken Uk Highland National Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 30.5f · Good · 13 ran 10th 18/1
28 Apr 17 Perth Lucarno Dancer (GB)J: Daragh Bourke Saltire Stables Mares' 'national Hunt' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 8th 200/1
05 Apr 17 Carlisle Tikkandemickey (IRE)J: Daragh Bourke Jess Glynne Here 8th July Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 3rd 9/1
28 Mar 17 Hexham Tikkandemickey (IRE)J: Daragh Bourke 188Bet Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Heavy · 10 ran PU 14/1
09 Mar 17 Carlisle Tikkandemickey (IRE)J: Daragh Bourke Watch Racing Uk In Hd Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Heavy · 5 ran 2nd 13/2
07 Dec 16 Hexham Tikkandemickey (IRE)J: Daragh Bourke Follow At attheraces On Twitter Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 22.5f · Heavy · 10 ran UR 9/2
02 Dec 16 Sedgefield Lucarno Dancer (GB)J: Harry Reed Wainwright Golden Beer Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Good · 12 ran 5th 20/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Raymond Shiels's strike rate?
Raymond Shiels has won 7 of 110 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.4% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Raymond Shiels's Fair A/E?
0.79, from 109 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).