What is Keith Mercer's strike rate?

Keith Mercer has won 75 of 924 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Keith Mercer do best at?

Catterick by strike rate: 8 wins from 58 rides (13.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Keith Mercer ride most for?

Ferdy Murphy, with 122 rides since 2008 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (9%).

What is Keith Mercer's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 922 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Keith Mercer

924 rides in the lifetime window · 454 individual horses

As at 6 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Mar 2012 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No rides in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

75–924

Wins / Runs

8.1%

Strike rate

n=924

207 (22%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=922 · 0.86 incl. margin

−372.00

£1 level stake

n=924 at SP · −40.3%

£615k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Rider Profile

Rode around 180 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.99). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 19% (75 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 924 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Jun–Jul 44.2% when favourite Ferdy Murphy: 9% from 122 LTO winners: 18.7% Rode the favourite in 6% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 18.7% (n=75, Fair A/E 1.08), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 3.2% (n=219, Fair A/E 0.53). Ferdy Murphy supplied 13% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (9%, A/E 1.01) — the market has that partnership priced right. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Ballymore Properties Champion Stayers Hurdle at Punchestown (Apr 2005, £105,400). Seasonally, the rider fired Jun–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.1% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

7.9%−0.2

n=392 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −121.37

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

18.7%+10.6

n=75 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −19.63

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

3.2%−4.9

n=219 · A/E 0.53 · £1 −162.92

When favourite

44.2%

n=52 · A/E 1.41 · £1 +12.29

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.2%−2.9

n=252 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −111.13

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−8.1

n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Brian Ellison 25% vs 8.1% · n=40

With Tom Tate 23.9% vs 8.1% · n=46

With C&D winners 20% vs 8.1% · n=55

On last-time-out winners 18.7% vs 8.1% · n=75

With Sharon Watt 0% vs 8.1% · n=36

With John Weymes 0% vs 8.1% · n=34

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 509 45 8.8% −188.58

Chase 331 25 7.6% −163.42

NH Flat 83 5 6% −19.00

Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 384 28 7.3% −152.87

Good to Soft 206 16 7.8% −79.13

Soft 162 21 13% −20.05

Good to Firm 104 5 4.8% −75.45

Heavy 67 5 7.5% −43.50

Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Sedgefield 82 4 4.9% −43.75

Market Rasen 81 11 13.6% −2.63

Newcastle 71 1 1.4% −66.50

Kelso 66 2 3% −60.38

Wetherby 64 5 7.8% −46.62

Hexham 60 8 13.3% +24.25

Catterick 58 8 13.8% −3.63

Doncaster 52 3 5.8% −21.00

Carlisle 43 2 4.7% −31.00

Musselburgh 40 5 12.5% −20.75

Aintree 38 2 5.3% −2.00

Perth 37 3 8.1% −23.95

Ayr 34 3 8.8% −14.17

Southwell 31 2 6.5% −22.12

Cartmel 30 4 13.3% +8.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 461 46 10% −176.96

Class 5 178 13 7.3% −44.54

Class 3 147 8 5.4% −96.00

Class 2 58 6 10.3% +6.50

Class 6 46 1 2.2% −42.00

Class 1 33 1 3% −18.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 62 25 40.3% 1.36 +9.79

2nd–3rd fav 151 25 16.6% 1.02 −22.29

4th–6th fav 275 14 5.1% 0.67 −120.50

7th+ in betting 436 11 2.5% 0.88 −239.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

80% completed · 840 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 331 75.2% 14 16 50 1 1

Hurdle 509 83.1% 6 4 74 1 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Pistol Basc (FR) 13 1 5 25 Apr 10

Braddock Island (GB) 11 1 2 16 Feb 12

Honest John (GB) 11 2 4 23 Nov 11

Esme Rides A Gaine (GB) 10 1 1 30 Nov 11

Charlie Crab (GB) 10 3 5 14 Feb 09

Another Dark Rum (GB) 9 0 0 14 Jun 10

Maidstone Mixture (FR) 9 0 2 3 Dec 09

Another Rum (IRE) 9 0 2 24 Apr 09

Aint She The Lady (IRE) 8 0 2 17 Feb 10

Ursis (FR) 7 2 3 1 Aug 10

Indian Pipe Dream (IRE) 7 0 1 17 Jul 10

Hold The Bid (IRE) 7 2 3 14 Jul 10

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 454 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 4 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

75884131210921013

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardFerdy Murphy

13% of all rides
9% SR · A/E 1.01

TrainerRWSR£1

Ferdy Murphy 122 11 9% −62.75

Steve Gollings 91 10 11% −20.38

Paul Murphy 63 1 1.6% −55.00

Tom Tate 46 11 23.9% +25.12

Brian Ellison 40 10 25% +18.00

Sharon Watt 36 0 0% −36.00

Roger Fisher 35 2 5.7% −9.00

John Weymes 34 0 0% −34.00

Edwin Tuer 30 2 6.7% −21.88

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

158

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.51m

Prize money

2005

Best season · 39 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Carlys Quest (GB) — Ballymore Properties Champion Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1) Punchestown · Apr 2005 · Grade 1

£105,400

Joes Edge (IRE) — Scottish National H'cap Chase (Grade 3) Ayr · Apr 2005 · Class 1

£70,000

Honest John (GB) — John Smith's Champion Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race Grade 2 Aintree · Apr 2008 · Class 1

£22,804

Notable horses

Rare Coincidence (GB) Charlie Crab (GB) Hold The Bid (IRE) Skippers Brig (IRE) Bothy (GB) John Forbes (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Rock City (IRE) 5.6% · 1–18

Progeny have won 4.1% of 245 runs since 2008 (31 horses).

Luso (GB) 11.8% · 2–17

Progeny have won 6.7% of 3,516 runs since 2008 (389 horses).

Saddlers' Hall (IRE) 23.5% · 4–17

Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,861 runs since 2008 (460 horses).

Fasliyev (USA) 38.5% · 5–13

Progeny have won 8.3% of 4,140 runs since 2008 (273 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.1% from 124.

Maille Pistol (FR) 7.7% · 1–13

Progeny have won 7.9% of 431 runs since 2008 (55 horses). Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 11.1% from 162.

Oscar (IRE) 15.4% · 2–13

Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,933 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,933 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 3 March 2012.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

03 Mar 12 Kelso Shan Blue (IRE)T: Steve Gollings Bet Totepool Text Tote To 89660 Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 22.5f · Good · 11 ran BD 9/1

03 Mar 12 Kelso Into Wain (USA)T: Steve Gollings totepool Premier Kelso Hurdle (Grade 2 Novices' Hurdle)Class 1 · 18f · Good · 6 ran 4th 13/2

03 Mar 12 Kelso Or de Grugy (FR)T: Sue Bradburne Bedmax Handicap Chase (For The Hamilton Memorial Trophy)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 6 ran 6th 20/1

03 Mar 12 Kelso Chookie Hamilton (GB)T: Keith Dalgleish Terry Frame Joiners Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 6th 18/1

16 Feb 12 Leicester Braddock Island (GB)T: Sheila Sunter Fernie Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran F 33/1

16 Feb 12 Leicester Mansonien L'as (FR)T: Ferdy Murphy Wren Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 20f · Good · 12 ran 10th 12/1

15 Feb 12 Kelso Maggie Blue (IRE)T: Harriet Graham DBS/EBF Mares' Standard Open NH Flat Race (Qualifier)Class 5 · 16f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 4th 40/1

15 Feb 12 Kelso Local Hero (GER)T: Steve Gollings BetVictor Morebattle HurdleClass 2 · 18f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 3rd 33/1

15 Feb 12 Kelso Laterly (IRE)T: Steve Gollings Kelso Members Novices' ChaseClass 2 · 17f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 3rd 9/2

15 Feb 12 Kelso Hada Men (USA)T: Brian Ellison Berrymoss Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 5th 25/1

14 Feb 12 Ayr Mr Woods (GB)T: Harriet Graham BetVictor.com Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24.5f · Soft · 13 ran PU 5/1F

11 Feb 12 Musselburgh Simonside (GB)T: Brian Ellison John Smith's Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 5th 14/1

06 Feb 12 Ayr Sydney Cove (IRE)T: N W Alexander BetVictor.com Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20f · Soft · 14 ran 3rd 10/1

01 Feb 12 Newcastle Hada Men (USA)T: Brian Ellison North Sea Logistics Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Soft · 8 ran 3rd 6/1

10 Dec 11 Cheltenham Divers (FR)T: Ferdy Murphy Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup (Grade 3 Handicap Chase)Class 1 · 21f · Good · 16 ran UR 11/1

09 Dec 11 Doncaster Classical Mist (GB)T: David O'Meara Play Casino At Victor Chandler Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 2nd 7/1

09 Dec 11 Doncaster Capricornus (USA)T: Ferdy Murphy Happy Christmas To All Our Racegoers Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 10th 25/1

09 Dec 11 Doncaster All That Remains (IRE)T: Steve Gollings VictorChandler.com 'National Hunt' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Good · 10 ran 6th 13/2

09 Dec 11 Doncaster King's Counsel (IRE)T: David O'Meara Atteys Solicitors Novices' ChaseClass 4 · 16.5f · Good · 6 ran 4th 25/1

07 Dec 11 Hexham Treehouse (GB)T: Ann Hamilton Woodcock Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Heavy · 8 ran PU 9/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Keith Mercer's strike rate?: Keith Mercer has won 75 of 924 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Keith Mercer do best at?: Catterick by strike rate: 8 wins from 58 rides (13.8%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Keith Mercer ride most for?: Ferdy Murphy, with 122 rides since 2008 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 11 (9%).
What is Keith Mercer's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 922 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.