Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 50 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 12% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.94).
Deterministic profile computed from 241 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 15 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceBrian Hughes: 13.8% from 87
The read
The record is strongest at Ayr (16.7%, n=42), clear of the yard's 12% baseline. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 8.5% (n=59, Fair A/E 1.09). Brian Hughes rides 36% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (13.8%, A/E 0.84). The yard also reads well on Good going (19.4%, n=62) and in Chase races (15.1%, n=93). The stable star of the record: Civil Unrest (IRE) — 12 wins from 66 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 12% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10.8%−1.2
n=74 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −18.75
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−12.0
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
12.5%+0.5
n=16 · A/E 1.00 · £1 +16.75
First-time headgear · true-first definition
21.1%+9.1
n=19 · A/E 2.01 · £1 +8.50
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
10.5%−1.5
n=19 · A/E 0.89 · £1 −11.50
When favourite
45.5%
n=22 · A/E 1.33 · £1 +6.23
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.5%−3.5
n=59 · A/E 1.09 · £1 +3.33
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Good going19.4% vs 12% · n=62
On last-time-out winners19.4% vs 12% · n=31
With a new jockey booking7.7% vs 12% · n=91
At Ayr16.7% vs 12% · n=42
With claiming riders up8.5% vs 12% · n=59
In Chase races15.1% vs 12% · n=93
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle1361511%+3.99
Chase931415.1%−27.51
NH Flat900%−9.00
Flat300%−3.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good to Soft7879%−27.12
Soft63711.1%+32.13
Good621219.4%−14.13
Heavy3339.1%−21.40
Good to Firm300%−3.00
Standard (AW)200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle50510%−20.25
Ayr42716.7%+27.76
Kelso28414.3%−15.24
Musselburgh27622.2%+37.83
Wetherby2000%−20.00
Hexham18316.7%−7.75
Carlisle1500%−15.00
Doncaster8112.5%−5.62
Haydock8112.5%−4.75
Sedgefield6233.3%+6.50
Perth600%−6.00
Aintree300%−3.00
Bangor-on-Dee200%−2.00
Catterick200%−2.00
Cartmel200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 41401812.9%−30.03
Class 552611.5%+15.50
Class 34249.5%−17.74
Class 24125%−0.25
Class 6300%−3.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite271037%1.13+1.23
2nd–3rd fav751114.7%0.81−26.75
4th–6th fav7845.1%0.61−21.50
7th+ in betting6146.6%1.94+11.50
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f911213.2%+20.22
1m5f – 2m83910.8%−39.24
2m5f – 3m54713%−11.50
Over 3m10110%−2.00
1m2f – 1m4f200%−2.00
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202280810%+13.33
2023681014.7%−12.36
202451611.8%−16.74
202542511.9%−19.75
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps1752112%−33.43
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
5-7 runners861416.3%−22.91
8-10 runners821113.4%+42.91
11-13 runners4512.2%−35.00
14-16 runners1400%−14.00
2-4 runners12325%−4.52
17+ runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 47 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 47 horses listed, 18 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Ewan Whillans (3) and S R B Crawford (3); 29 had their first archived run for this yard.
22 have since run for another yard, most often for Dan Skelton (3) and Nicky Richards (3); 25 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
18131465130010010912
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
269
Archived wins
£2.05m
Prize money
2017
Best season · 24 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Aristo Du Plessis (FR) — totepoolliveinfo.com Hogmaneigh Hurdle (Handicap) Musselburgh · Jan 2016 · Class 2
£25,992
Quicuyo (GER) — Mirror Punters Club Handicap Chase Doncaster · Jan 2012 · Class 2
£25,024
Empire De Maulde (FR) — Edinburgh Gin Chase (Limited Handicap) (GBB Race) Kelso · Oct 2021 · Class 2
Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,898 runs since 2008 (1,025 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.7% from 131.
Martaline (GB)7.7% · 1–13
Progeny have won 14.2% of 7,339 runs since 2008 (723 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.4% from 128. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 10% from 120.
Progeny have won 10.9% of 110 runs since 2008 (13 horses).
Black Sam Bellamy (IRE)0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 10.3% of 4,681 runs since 2008 (466 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 145.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 2,156 · newest first
The latest 50 of 2,156 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 14 January 2005 to 7 May 2025.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is James Ewart's strike rate?
James Ewart has won 29 of 241 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 12% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does James Ewart do best at?
Ayr by strike rate: 7 wins from 42 runners (16.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for James Ewart?
Brian Hughes, with 87 runners since 2022 — 36% of the total. That pairing has won 12 (13.8%).
What is James Ewart's Fair A/E?
0.94, from 241 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
James Ewart·SR 12%·A/E 0.94
KTB
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