4:40 Epsom
The 4:40 at Epsom is a Class 5 handicap over 1m0f113y on good to soft ground, featuring an eight-runner field where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 57 and 35. Super Hit tops the KTB ratings on 57, just ahead of Oj Lifestyle on 55, with the principals all rated as modest performers. The race features a strong pace likely according to the KTB numbers, which could play a significant part in how things unfold on the track that has seen Super Hit successful on his sole previous visit.
How the race shapes up
With three habitual front-runners in the field – Super Hit, H Key Lails and Tronido – a strong pace is anticipated and the confidence level is high that it could collapse late. That scenario would play into the hands of the hold-up performers such as Oj Lifestyle, Eduardo Calderon, Amused and Uniter. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the lap of something coming from off the pace in the latter stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Super Hit KTB Selection57/100
Super Hit is a modest performer who has won on his only previous visit to Epsom. He drops back in trip from 1m4f having been placed without winning at this distance, and his recent form of 413137 shows he can be competitive in this grade. Trainer James Owen has a strong 25% strike rate at the track from 12 runs, though the horse remains unproven on good to soft ground. From draw 1 he is likely to make the running or race prominently as his run-style suggests. The trainer and jockey combination shows 2/11 (18%) with an A/E of 0.57 and -£6.84 LSP. Jason Watson has a 12% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 0.8 from 73 rides.
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2Oj Lifestyle55/100
Oj Lifestyle is a modest performer who has been a regular at Epsom and has placed three times from eight runs here without winning. He drops back in trip having last run over a mile and a quarter and is proven at today's distance though without a win, while three runs on good to soft have produced no win or place. The trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at the track from 56 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well suited by the strong pace that is expected. The trainer and jockey combination shows 31/303 (10%) with an A/E of 0.86 and -£56.55 LSP. Tom Queally has a 15% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 1.1 from 172 rides.
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3H Key Lails54/100
H Key Lails is a modest performer who has been largely consistent this year without winning. He steps up in trip today having won twice from three starts at this distance in the past though his recent form suggests he may struggle to build on that. The trainer's modest record at Epsom and the horse's own poor efforts on good to soft ground add to the negatives. From draw 8 he is likely to make the running or race prominently as his run-style suggests. The trainer and jockey combination shows 2/16 (13%) with an A/E of 1.18 and +£2.00 LSP. Seamus Cronin has a 33% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 1.57 from 6 rides.
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4Here I Bow52/100
Here I Bow is a fair 3-year-old who has shown some ability but has been below form on his last three starts. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question, while his two runs on good to soft produced no win or place. The yard have no recorded runs at Epsom and this is the colt's first appearance here. He drops in class which could help. The trainer and jockey combination shows 3/29 (10%) with an A/E of 1.07 and -£7.00 LSP. Jonny Peate has a 0% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 0 from 3 rides.
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5Eduardo Calderon49/100
Eduardo Calderon is a modest performer with consistent placed form at this level, finishing no worse than third in three of his last four starts. He steps up in trip today having looked stretched at 7f last time, which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a solid 20% strike rate at Epsom from 30 runs.
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6Tronido48/100
Tronido is a modest performer who has won once from four runs at Epsom. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 6f, though he has won at this distance in the past. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Epsom from 533 runs while the horse remains unproven on good to soft ground.
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7Amused47/100
Amused is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to place twice from his last four starts yet lacks real punch at the finish. He showed little on his only previous run here and has failed to win or place in his one try on good to soft ground. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse whose recent form has come over shorter.
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8Uniter35/100
Uniter is a limited performer who has shown very little in ten starts and was pulled up on his most recent outing. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question while he has no experience of Epsom. The trainer holds a 10% strike rate at the track from 31 runs.
KTB verdict
Super Hit is the KTB Selection. A modest performer, he won on his only previous visit to Epsom and his recent form of 413137 shows he can be competitive in this grade, with the yard holding a strong 25% strike rate at the track. The drop back in trip from 1m4f looks suitable given he has been placed at this distance, and although he is unproven on good to soft the strong pace should ensure he is not left in front for too long. His main dangers are Oj Lifestyle, who has placed three times from eight runs at Epsom and is suited by the hold-up style in a race with a strong pace likely, and H Key Lails, who steps up in trip having won twice from three starts at this distance in the past.
KTB Selection Super Hit
This is the narrative read of the 4:40 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Epsom results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won on its only previous visit to Epsom?
Super Hit
How many times has Oj Lifestyle been placed at Epsom without winning?
Three times from eight runs
What is the trainer's strike rate at Epsom for the yard of H Key Lails?
5% strike rate at Epsom with an A/E of 0.58 from 128 runs
Which runner is dropping in class and stepping up in trip for the first time?
Here I Bow
How many front-runners are in the field according to their run-styles?
Three: Super Hit, H Key Lails and Tronido
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