What is Kaiya Fraser's strike rate?

Kaiya Fraser has won 155 of 1,310 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.8% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Kaiya Fraser do best at?

Hamilton by strike rate: 13 wins from 72 rides (18.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Kaiya Fraser ride most for?

Harry Eustace, with 234 rides since 2022 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 29 (12.4%).

Is Kaiya Fraser in form?

In the last 14 days: 16 rides, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 11.8% since 2022.

What is Kaiya Fraser's Fair A/E?

1.05, from 1,303 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Kaiya Fraser

1,310 rides in the last 5 seasons · 595 individual horses

As at 5 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride yesterday 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)

from 1 Jan 2022

155–1,310

Wins / Runs

11.8%

Strike rate

n=1,310

398 (30%)

Placed

1.05

Fair A/E

n=1,303 · 0.89 incl. margin

−248.96

£1 level stake

n=1,310 at SP · −19.0%

£1.79m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

12.2%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 260 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.05). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 20% (149 rides). The rider is quiet just now — 0 winners in the last fortnight, below their own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 1,310 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 5 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Dec–Apr 30.6% when favourite Harry Eustace: 12.4% from 234 LTO winners: 20.1% Claiming: 13.8% Rides the favourite in 10% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Hamilton (18.1%, n=72), clear of the rider's 11.8% baseline. It is weakest at Ayr (4.2% over 71 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 20.1% (n=149, Fair A/E 1.12), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 4.9% (n=103, Fair A/E 0.78). Right now the rider is in a quiet spell: 0 from 16 rides in the last 14 days (0%, 11.8pts below the 11.8% baseline). Harry Eustace supplies 18% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (12.4%, A/E 0.91). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Coral Vintage Stakes at Goodwood (Jul 2026, £113,420). The standout partner of the record: Brazilian Rose (IRE) — 7 wins from 26 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Dec–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.8% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.5%−0.3

n=593 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −39.82

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

20.1%+8.3

n=149 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −18.36

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

11.6%−0.2

n=173 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −23.05

When favourite

30.6%

n=134 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −18.26

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

13.8%+2.0

n=600 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −30.35

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.9%−6.9

n=103 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −59.50

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

4.8%−7.0

n=21 · A/E 0.70 · £1 −13.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 20.1% vs 11.8% · n=149

With Chris Wall 23.5% vs 11.8% · n=34

At Ayr 4.2% vs 11.8% · n=71

At Hamilton 18.1% vs 11.8% · n=72

With Ruth Carr 18.5% vs 11.8% · n=54

With James Fanshawe 18.5% vs 11.8% · n=54

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 580 74 12.8% −67.23

Good 285 33 11.6% −64.02

Good to Firm 197 25 12.7% −22.37

Good to Soft 135 14 10.4% −39.77

Soft 89 8 9% −46.57

Heavy 23 1 4.3% −8.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 226 31 13.7% −40.13

Wolverhampton (AW) 99 12 12.1% −34.22

Southwell (AW) 85 12 14.1% +34.45

Kempton (AW) 81 10 12.3% −14.68

Hamilton 72 13 18.1% +7.66

Ayr 71 3 4.2% −48.50

Musselburgh 54 5 9.3% −2.00

Lingfield (AW) 53 6 11.3% −12.15

Yarmouth 53 3 5.7% −28.67

Brighton 43 3 7% −24.75

Chelmsford (AW) 36 3 8.3% −0.50

Redcar 34 2 5.9% +2.00

Doncaster 27 4 14.8% +3.13

Nottingham 26 6 23.1% +10.50

Pontefract 24 5 20.8% −0.15

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 477 61 12.8% −66.74

Class 5 409 49 12% −102.08

Class 4 281 29 10.3% −20.49

Class 2 65 8 12.3% −37.52

Class 3 57 7 12.3% −8.63

Class 1 21 1 4.8% −13.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 155 46 29.7% 1.05 −18.23

2nd–3rd fav 327 53 16.2% 0.97 −56.23

4th–6th fav 458 45 9.8% 1.18 +26.50

7th+ in betting 370 11 3% 0.92 −201.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Brazilian Rose (IRE) 26 7 11 18 Sep 26

Hostelry (GB) 18 5 9 27 May 26

Divine Comedy (IRE) 18 6 11 20 Oct 25

Kyber Crystal (IRE) 16 2 8 20 Sep 26

King Chaos (IRE) 16 1 4 10 Aug 26

One Of Our Own (GB) 15 3 5 26 Oct 26

Oh So Audacious (GB) 15 2 7 16 Oct 25

Spanish Hustle (GB) 13 2 6 1 Aug 26

Starliner (IRE) 12 1 2 1 Aug 26

Judgment Call (GB) 12 2 3 10 Mar 26

Lion's House (GB) 11 1 4 1 May 26

Shine On Brendan (IRE) 11 2 5 9 Oct 25

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 595 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

0 from 16 0% · −11.8pts vs baseline

Last 14 days0%

5-season base11.8%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1514161512138111211813

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardHarry Eustace

18% of all rides
12.4% SR · A/E 0.91

TrainerRWSR£1

Harry Eustace 234 29 12.4% −86.47

Rebecca Menzies 218 25 11.5% −70.06

Linda Perratt 96 8 8.3% −41.17

Jim Goldie 65 11 16.9% +24.66

Ruth Carr 54 10 18.5% +8.75

James Fanshawe 54 10 18.5% +5.24

John Butler 52 9 17.3% −11.00

Gemma Tutty 52 6 11.5% +9.23

Michael Attwater 38 3 7.9% −4.50

Chris Wall 34 8 23.5% +58.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→

156

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.79m

Prize money

2024

Best season · 45 wins

Dr Rascal (GB) — Coral Vintage Stakes (Group 2) Goodwood · Jul 2026 · Group 2

£113,420

Divine Comedy (IRE) — Betfred Nifty 50 Hell Nook Handicap Haydock · May 2024 · Class 2

£25,770

Adonius (IRE) — CAA Stellar Lily Agnes EBF Conditions Stakes (GBB Race) Chester · May 2026 · Class 2

£25,770

Notable horses

Brazilian Rose (IRE) Divine Comedy (IRE) Hostelry (GB) One Of Our Own (GB) Adonius (IRE) Dr Rascal (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Showcasing (GB) 18.6% · 8–43

Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,640 runs since 2014 (998 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.

Calyx (GB) 21.1% · 8–38

Progeny have won 13.4% of 1,512 runs since 2023 (174 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9.5% from 169. Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.9% from 111.

Kingman (GB) 13.2% · 5–38

Progeny have won 14.5% of 7,520 runs since 2018 (778 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11% from 970. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9% from 122.

Churchill (IRE) 18.2% · 6–33

Progeny have won 11% of 4,841 runs since 2021 (462 horses).

Havana Gold (IRE) 3.3% · 1–30

Progeny have won 9.5% of 5,063 runs since 2017 (402 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.2% from 118. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 523. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.2% from 177.

Kodiac (GB) 6.7% · 2–30

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,595 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 5 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,314 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,314 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 29 August 2021 to 4 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Nov 26 Nottingham Somkiyr (FR)T: Andy Irvine racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Soft · 15 ran 13th 66/1

03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Forever Perfect (GB)T: Rebecca Menzies Midnite Built Different Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 14/1

03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Mr Rocco (GB)T: James Horton AW Trials Day - Lingfield 2nd Jan 2027 EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 4th 10/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Stansfield Dream (IRE)T: Harry Eustace AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 200/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Enamored (GB)T: Ed Dunlop AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 2nd 33/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Ancient Times (GB)T: Harry Eustace Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 6/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Stellar Vision (GB)T: Stuart Williams Munich's Allianz-grosser Preis Von Bayern Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 10th 33/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Green Sovereign (GB)T: Harry Eustace Hurworth Blooodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 7f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 14th 100/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Sydney Grace (IRE)T: Charlie Fellowes Irish Stallion Farms Ebf 'bosra Sham' Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 6f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 7th 40/1

29 Oct 26 Bath No Claims Bonus (GB)T: Harry Eustace Bristol Motor Club Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5.5f · Soft · 16 ran 4th 22/1

28 Oct 26 Nottingham Fort Mchenry (IRE)T: Charlie Fellowes EBF Stallions Golden Horn Maiden Stakes (Colts And Geldings Only)Class 3 · 8.5f · Soft · 5 ran 4th 66/1

27 Oct 26 Catterick Oracle Mission (GB)T: Harry Eustace Jumps Season Starts 20th November Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Soft · 10 ran 5th 14/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar One Of Our Own (GB)T: Rebecca Menzies Thanks And See You Next Season Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Heavy · 14 ran 10th 16/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Sergeeva (GB)T: Rebecca Menzies Wear Your Poppy With Pride Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 10f · Heavy · 10 ran 7th 300/1

26 Oct 26 Redcar Sardinero (GER)T: Rebecca Menzies Ebf "double Trigger" Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 9f · Soft · 8 ran 3rd 20/1

24 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Sigma (GB)T: Harry Eustace Awc Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 11/1

22 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Mohaymenah (IRE)T: Harry Eustace AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 11/2

19 Oct 26 Pontefract Ghisa (IRE)T: Charlie Fellowes British Stallion Studs Ebf Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 3 · 6f · Heavy · 10 ran 4th 6/1

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Native Honey (IRE)T: Jim Goldie Saturday 24th October Gents Night Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 11/1

16 Oct 26 Haydock Deputy Vice (IRE)T: Rebecca Menzies Vantage Consulting Powered By Requidex Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Heavy · 9 ran 6th 22/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 5 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 1) · to 3 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Kaiya Fraser's strike rate?: Kaiya Fraser has won 155 of 1,310 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 11.8% (as at 5 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Kaiya Fraser do best at?: Hamilton by strike rate: 13 wins from 72 rides (18.1%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Kaiya Fraser ride most for?: Harry Eustace, with 234 rides since 2022 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 29 (12.4%).
Is Kaiya Fraser in form?: In the last 14 days: 16 rides, 0 winners, a strike rate of 0%. That is below the baseline of 11.8% since 2022.
What is Kaiya Fraser's Fair A/E?: 1.05, from 1,303 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.