5:00 Leopardstown
The 5:00 Leopardstown brings together an elite field of eight for the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes, a Group 1 contest run over 1m2f on good ground. The race features several high-class performers, many with strong recent records, and the KTB Fit ratings identify Constitution River as the top-rated on 67, closely followed by Item on 65, with Almaqam, Wimbledon Hawkeye and the rest of the field tightly bunched behind. Trainer Aidan O'Brien holds a 20% strike rate at the track from a huge sample, while several runners boast solid or better records on good ground and at the trip.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is likely given the presence of multiple habitual front-runners in Almaqam, Lambourn and Hawk Mountain, with the confidence in this assessment high. This shape could see the leaders go hard early and potentially collapse in the straight, which would play into the hands of the hold-up performers. Constitution River, Item, Wimbledon Hawkeye, Hotazhell and A Boy Named Susie are all usually held up and produce their efforts late, so the key question is whether any of the prominent runners can dictate and last home or if the race will fall to one of those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Constitution River KTB Selection67/100
Constitution River is a high-class colt with a strong recent record, recording four wins from his last five starts. He drops back to 1m2f having won three times from four starts at the trip and shows a solid three wins from four on this ground. The yard has a 20% strike rate at Leopardstown from a huge sample while Ryan Moore, who has a 33% strike rate at the track, takes the ride. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has no course form on record but carries a clear yard connection. His KTB Fit rating of 67 makes him the selection in a competitive Group 1.
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2Item65/100
Item is a high-class performer with a strong recent record of four wins from six starts. He drops back to a trip he has won three times from three attempts and has scored twice from two starts on good ground. The combination of trainer Andrew Balding and jockey Colin Keane has produced a 34% strike rate from 56 runners together. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has no course form on record and the trainer's record at Leopardstown remains an unknown from just one run. Rated 65 on KTB Fit, he is the closest rival to the selection.
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3Almaqam61/100
Almaqam is a high-class performer with a solid recent record and two wins from nine at today's trip. He drops back in distance after his last run over 1m2½f and has three wins from eight starts on good ground. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he will be prominent in a race where the pace is likely to be strong. The trainer has only one run at Leopardstown which is too small a sample to judge while this is the horse's first appearance here. His KTB Fit of 61 keeps him firmly in the mix among the principals.
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4Wimbledon Hawkeye60/100
Wimbledon Hawkeye is a smart performer who arrives in decent nick after a win last time and has two placed efforts from five starts on good ground. He has won twice at this trip from five attempts and remains not fully exposed after 16 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, this will be his first time at Leopardstown for both horse and trainer, though the jockey has a 29% strike rate at the track from 21 rides. Rated 60 on KTB Fit, he is the last of the four principals and could be suited by the strong pace.
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5Lambourn57/100
Lambourn is a smart performer who has placed on his only visit to Leopardstown and boasts a rock-solid record on good ground with five wins from five starts. Dropping back from 1m4f to a trip he has won over before looks a sensible move, and the trainer continues to enjoy a 20% strike rate at this track from a huge sample. Usually making the running or racing on the pace, his KTB Fit is 57.
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6Hotazhell54/100
Hotazhell is a smart performer who has won once from three starts at Leopardstown. Recent form shows a solid third last time but he is now 0 from 4 at this trip and his record on good ground is only one win from six runs. The trainer's 10% strike rate at the track from a huge sample adds a note of caution. Usually held up, his KTB Fit is 54.
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7A Boy Named Susie52/100
A Boy Named Susie is a smart performer who has finished in the first four on all three starts at this track, including a second over today's trip. He showed his best form when winning a 1m2f Group 3 on good ground last time and has the right connections, though the trainer's 10% strike-rate here from a big sample is the main negative. Usually held up, his KTB Fit is 52.
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8Hawk Mountain49/100
Hawk Mountain is a smart colt who has finished placed in Group company on three occasions and looks up to winning at this level. He drops back to 1m2f having just been stretched over 1m2½f last time, a trip at which he has already been placed. The trainer has a 20% strike rate at Leopardstown from nearly 3000 runs while the horse handles good ground. Usually making the running or racing on the pace, his KTB Fit is 49.
KTB verdict
Constitution River is the KTB Selection. He brings a high-class profile with four wins from his last five starts, a strong record at 1m2f and on good ground, plus the powerful combination of Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore at a track where the yard operates at 20%. The strong pace shape should suit his usual hold-up style as the race could collapse late. His main dangers are Item, who has an excellent record at the trip and on the ground, Almaqam, who is likely to set the fractions, and Wimbledon Hawkeye, who remains open to improvement.
KTB Selection Constitution River
This is the narrative read of the 5:00 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leopardstown results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the early pace?
Almaqam, Lambourn and Hawk Mountain all tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the field are usually held up?
Five runners – Constitution River, Item, Wimbledon Hawkeye, Hotazhell and A Boy Named Susie – are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which trainer has the strongest Leopardstown strike rate in the race?
Aidan O'Brien has a 20% strike rate at Leopardstown from 2983 runs.
Which horse has course form at Leopardstown?
Hotazhell has won once from three starts at the track, Lambourn has been placed once from one run, and A Boy Named Susie has been placed on all three starts here.
On which ground does Constitution River have the best record?
Constitution River has three wins from four starts on good ground.
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