2:45 Leopardstown
The 2:45 at Leopardstown is the HKJC World Pool Golden Fleece Stakes, a Group 1 for two-year-olds over 1m1f on good ground. A field of ten lines up with KTB Fit Scores tightly bunched between 55 and 40, suggesting a competitive renewal where class and trip suitability will be key. The KTB numbers highlight Pikachu as the selection with the highest Fit rating of 55, though several others sit close behind and bring strong course or yard form.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, as multiple habitual front-runners including Pikachu, Shakespeare, Darkness Falls, Victory Speech and Quest For Stars are all inclined to race prominently or make the running. This could set the race up for a late collapse, favouring hold-up performers such as Aix La Chapelle and Zarak Pasha. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms without overdoing it, or if the race will fall into the lap of those coming from off the pace in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Pikachu KTB Selection55/100
Pikachu is a smart two-year-old with a solid recent record of 25341 and clear ability at this level. He steps up in trip today having already won at 1m1f from a single attempt, which looks a positive, and his front-running style could be an asset if he can secure an uncontested lead early. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Leopardstown from two runs with an A/E of 0, though the small sample makes it difficult to judge the yard's local prowess. David Egan takes the ride with a 13% strike rate at the track from 16 rides and an A/E of 1.07. He has been placed once from two runs on good ground without winning, and steps up in class from his most recent efforts.
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2Green Dreamer51/100
Green Dreamer is a useful colt who showed his best when winning over 7f here last time having previously finished third on debut. He has a solid 13% strike rate for Joseph Patrick O'Brien at Leopardstown from 1072 runs with an A/E of 0.89, while the yard's jockey J M Sheridan has a 7% record at the track from 174 rides and an A/E of 0.8. The colt has one win from three runs on good ground with another placed effort, and he has already won here from one visit. Stepping up to 1m1f poses a fresh question while his recent form of 513 suggests progressive form.
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3Shakespeare51/100
Shakespeare has shown steady improvement in three runs, finishing second in a decent race here over 7f last time. He now steps up to 1m1f for the first time, which asks a fresh question of him, and his front-running style means he could be involved in the expected strong pace. The yard has a 20% strike rate at Leopardstown from 2983 runs with an A/E of 0.88, though the jockey has no record at the track. He has been placed once from one run on good ground without winning, and his course form reads one second from a single visit.
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4Nola Soul50/100
Nola Soul is a useful performer who has won both starts at this track including on her only previous visit here. She has already shown she handles good ground with one win from two runs and another placed effort, though she steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question. Her prominent run-style means she should be on or close to the strong pace. The yard has a modest 5% strike rate at Leopardstown from 112 runs with an A/E of 0.52, which is a negative, while Seamie Heffernan has a 10% strike rate at the track from 1517 rides and an A/E of 0.75.
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5Aix La Chapelle50/100
Aix La Chapelle showed useful speed when winning on debut before a respectable effort when fourth here last time. The step up to 1m1f is an unknown and the small sample means there is little else to go on, though his held-up run-style could be well suited if the strong pace collapses late. Aidan O'Brien has a 20% strike-rate at Leopardstown from 2983 runs with an A/E of 0.88, while Christophe Soumillon has a 29% strike rate at the track from 21 rides and an A/E of 1.2. He has one run on good ground with no win or place, and his course form is one fourth from a single visit.
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6Zarak Pasha49/100
Zarak Pasha has shown steady improvement in three starts, winning last time out over today's trip on good ground. He has a 13% strike rate for the yard at Leopardstown from 1072 runs with an A/E of 0.89, though his held-up style could suit the expected strong pace.
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7Darkness Falls48/100
Darkness Falls showed useful early promise when third on debut here over a mile and then quickly improved to win a Curragh maiden on good ground last time. The step up to 1m1f is a fresh question for this lightly-raced colt and the small overall sample means his true level remains unclear, though his front-running style will see him involved in the pace.
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8Jesus Green48/100
Jesus Green showed promise when finishing second on debut over a mile here. He now steps up in trip for a high-class trainer who has a 13% strike rate at Leopardstown from 1072 runs, and with only one run on the board the colt remains lightly raced.
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9Victory Speech44/100
Victory Speech showed useful ability when winning on debut over today's trip before finishing second last time. The step up from 1m to 1m1f looks a fair fit on what he has done so far, though he is unproven on good ground and his front-running style will put him in the expected strong pace.
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10Quest For Stars40/100
Quest For Stars has won all three starts to date and carries a useful level of ability for a two-year-old. He steps up in trip today to an untried 1m1f which asks a fresh question, and his front-running style will see him contest the strong pace, though both trainer and jockey have limited local records at Leopardstown.
KTB verdict
Pikachu is the KTB Selection. He brings a solid recent record and has already shown he can win over this trip, with his front-running tendencies potentially helping him control proceedings in a race where the pace is set to be strong. The selection steps up in class but his overall profile fits well. Main dangers include Green Dreamer, who has course-winning form and a good local record for his yard, and Shakespeare, who has improved steadily and represents a powerful stable with strong figures at Leopardstown. Nola Soul cannot be dismissed given her unbeaten record at the track.
KTB Selection Pikachu
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leopardstown results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip having already won at this distance once?
Pikachu, who won at 1m1f from a single attempt.
How many front-runners are likely to contest the early pace?
At least four habitual front-runners are declared: Pikachu, Shakespeare, Darkness Falls and Victory Speech, with Quest For Stars and others also prominent.
Which runners have already won at Leopardstown?
Green Dreamer and Nola Soul have both won here from one visit each.
What is the yard strike rate at Leopardstown for Aidan O'Brien?
20% strike rate from 2983 runs with an A/E of 0.88.
Which horse is the only one with a 100% strike rate at the trip so far?
Zarak Pasha, who won last time out over today's trip from two runs at the distance.
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