4:00 Clonmel
This Clonmel maiden for fillies over an extended 1m2f on good to yielding ground brings together eight lightly-raced or unexposed three-year-olds in a race that lacks established pattern. The KTB Fit Scores are headed by Shanala on 67, with the next three clustered between 52 and 46, underlining a race where progressive types hold the edge over those with more exposed modest form. Trainer and jockey combinations at the track add another layer, with several yards operating on small samples that limit firm conclusions.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in a field where the majority are held-up types, the pace shape points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy on the turn could prove advantageous. Most runners, including the top three in the KTB Fit order, tend to come from off the pace and produce their efforts late, so the race is likely to develop into a test of timing in the straight. The key question is whether any horse can quicken effectively off a muddling gallop or whether one of the hold-up performers will be able to pick up the pieces in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Shanala KTB Selection67/100
Shanala arrives with a KTB Fit Score of 67 and is the clear selection. A fair maiden, she has shown steady placed form across her three starts, including a placing at today's trip. The yard holds a 25% strike rate at Clonmel from a small sample of four runs with an A/E of 1.32, while Ben Coen brings a 21% strike rate and A/E of 1.88 from his 14 rides at the track. She has had one run on good to yielding ground without placing, and has no previous course form. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she remains open to improvement with only three runs on the board and is far from fully exposed.
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2Noble Honour52/100
Noble Honour is rated at a KTB Fit Score of 52. A modest performer, he has shown consistent placed form and has finished no worse than third in three of his four starts. He has been placed at today's trip on one of his two attempts and holds solid course connections through the trainer, who has a 13% strike rate at Clonmel from 268 runs with an A/E of 0.89. Shane Foley has a 13% strike rate and A/E of 1.03 from 76 rides here. He was placed on his only start on good to yielding ground, though the small sample on this surface leaves suitability as an unknown rather than a negative. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he should be thereabouts again.
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3Coilins Girl52/100
Coilins Girl also carries a KTB Fit Score of 52. She has shown little in two starts so far, finishing well beaten on both occasions. The drop back in trip poses a fresh question while the small sample makes it impossible to judge whether the ground or track will suit. The trainer has a 25% strike rate at Clonmel from four runs with an A/E of 1.32, but the jockey has a 7% strike rate from 205 rides here with an A/E of 0.69. With no runs on good to yielding ground and no course form, she remains difficult to assess with any confidence. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she will need to improve markedly.
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4Susie's Angel46/100
Susie's Angel is rated at a KTB Fit Score of 46. She showed only modest form when finishing sixth on debut over 7f. She now steps up markedly in trip for a trainer with a 9% strike rate from 34 runs at Clonmel with an A/E of 0.87. The 7 lb claimer has no recorded rides at the track so this lightly-raced filly remains hard to assess with any confidence. She has no runs on good to yielding ground and no course form. The trip increase adds a significant new question to her profile.
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5Griselinia42/100
Griselinia is a newcomer with no racecourse experience and a KTB Fit Score of 42. The yard has only had four runners at Clonmel so the local record is too small to judge while Rory Cleary has an 8 percent strike rate from 73 rides here with an A/E of 0.88. With low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
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6Essential Comedy42/100
Essential Comedy is a modest performer with a KTB Fit Score of 42 who has shown some ability on two of her four starts but was well held when last seen. She drops back in trip today to a distance she has never tried, which asks a fresh question of her. First-time headgear is now applied while the yard's small sample at Clonmel makes their record here impossible to judge. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she has had one run on good to yielding ground without placing.
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7Estrallita39/100
Estrallita has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing sixth on both occasions, and carries a KTB Fit Score of 39. She is being asked a new question over this trip having failed to make an impact in one previous attempt at it. Trainer and jockey both have too few runs at Clonmel to draw any firm conclusions. She has no runs on good to yielding ground and no course form. Typically settles in midfield.
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8Emily Estherfaye38/100
Emily Estherfaye has shown little in two starts to date, finishing fifth then last, and is rated at a KTB Fit Score of 38. The drop back in trip poses a fresh question while the small sample makes it hard to judge whether the ground or the track will suit. Trainer Slattery has a modest 5% strike rate from 202 runs at Clonmel with an A/E of 0.55 and the 7 lb claimer has had too few rides here to form any reliable view. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she has no runs on good to yielding ground.
KTB verdict
Shanala stands out with the highest KTB Fit Score and the most encouraging placed form in a race where many runners bring limited data or modest performances. Her steady progression, placed effort at the trip and the positive jockey record at Clonmel make her the one to beat. Noble Honour looks the most solid danger on consistent placed efforts, while Coilins Girl and Susie's Angel are harder to assess but cannot be entirely ruled out if the race develops favourably. The remainder of the field largely consist of exposed modest types or those with too many unknowns for comfort.
KTB Selection Shanala
This is the narrative read of the 4:00 Clonmel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Clonmel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Clonmel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest placed form at the trip?
Shanala has a placing at today's trip from her three starts.
How does the lack of a leader affect the race shape?
The race lacks a leader and is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at Clonmel among those riding?
J M Sheridan has a 29% strike rate at Clonmel from 14 rides with an A/E of 2.39.
What new factors are being introduced for Essential Comedy?
Essential Comedy drops back in trip to a distance she has never tried and runs in first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at the track from the principals?
J. P. Murtagh has a 25% strike rate at Clonmel with an A/E of 1.32 from four runs.
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