4:45 Ayr
This Class 5 handicap division at Ayr over a mile on soft ground features an 11-runner field where the KTB Fit scores point to a competitive but largely modest bunch. The top-rated runner on the numbers is the selection Ice Cube on 64, with a small cluster of principals between 53 and 57 underlining how little separates many of these on recent form. Most of the field are held-up types, which becomes significant given the predicted pace shape.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, pointing to Penelope's Sister making the running from her inside draw with little to no pressure expected early on. The remainder of the field are predominantly held-up runners, meaning the race is likely to develop into a test of whether the clear leader can kick on unchallenged or if the closers can close the gap on this soft surface. The key question is whether the uncontested lead will prove decisive or if one of the patient types can produce a telling late effort.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ice Cube KTB Selection64/100
Ice Cube is a modest performer who has won once from a single run at Ayr and also has a win on soft ground from just one attempt. He steps up to 1m today having been placed without winning at the trip previously. The Richard Spencer yard posts a 17% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.29 from 42 runs, while Saffie Osborne is even stronger at 27% with an A/E of 1.47 from 11 rides. Ice Cube is held up and usually produces his effort late, which fits the shape of a race where the leader may get first run. Both trainer and jockey hold strong records at the track, and the combination steps up in class off the back of recent wins.
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2Up The Jazz57/100
Up The Jazz is a modest performer who has been reasonably consistent this year without winning often. He was placed on his only visit to Ayr and the Richard & Peter Fahey yard have a solid record here with a 14% strike rate and A/E of 1.35 from 22 runs, though the 3lb claimer Warren Fentiman is struggling with a poor 4% strike rate at the track from 23 rides. He drops back to a trip he has won at before but his two runs on soft ground have produced no form at all. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Up The Jazz will be hoping the uncontested leader comes back to him on this surface.
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3Stoic Poet57/100
Stoic Poet is a modest performer who has shown some spark at this track with a third and a fourth from three runs. He has handled soft ground in his only try and steps up to 1m for the first time today which asks a fresh question. The Iain Jardine yard has an 11% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 0.96 from 910 runs, while Kevin Stott strikes at 14% with an A/E of 0.9 from 264 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Stoic Poet will need to find a bit more if he is to capitalise on his course placings in what looks a stiff task on balance.
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4Sanafi Zabeel55/100
Sanafi Zabeel is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip but has struggled to land a blow in three runs here, finishing no better than fifth. Recent form is patchy with a win and a third mixed in with some lesser efforts, while he is 0-2 on soft ground. The Jim Goldie yard and Paul Mulrennan have solid long-term records at Ayr, the former at 10% strike rate with an A/E of 0.9 from 3626 runs and the latter at 14% with an A/E of 0.97 from 1207 rides. Usually held up, Sanafi Zabeel will be coming from off the pace in a race where the leader may not come back.
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5Filly Eilish53/100
Filly Eilish is a modest filly who has won once over this trip from five attempts but has been below that level on her last two starts. First-time headgear is now applied and she has a solid jockey booking in Jason Hart who strikes at 13% at Ayr with an A/E of 0.95 from 564 rides. Trainer Ivan Furtado has a modest 5% strike rate here from 39 runs. Usually held up, Filly Eilish is unproven on soft ground and has no course form on record, leaving her with questions to answer on several fronts.
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6Penelope's Sister50/100
Penelope's Sister is a limited performer who has won three times at Ayr including one success over today's trip. She has placed on soft ground and shown bits of form this year though she is not the most consistent. The Jim Goldie yard and Rhys Elliott both have modest strike rates here, but her tendency to make the running or race on the pace could be significant given the lone-leader pace shape.
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7Yaaser48/100
Yaaser is a limited performer who has won twice at Ayr from 15 starts but is 0-5 on soft ground and has been out of the frame in four of his last five runs. He drops back to a trip he has won at before though the recent form is modest and he carries a 5 lb claimer. The yard has a solid record at the track while the jockey is operating close to expectations here.
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8Starliner47/100
Starliner is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes a win here over this trip. He has placed on his last two starts and clearly handles the track, though he is 0-3 on soft ground and that remains a question mark. Trainer and jockey both operate at a low strike-rate at Ayr.
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9Peaceful Spirit47/100
Peaceful Spirit is a modest performer who has shown little since finishing fourth on handicap debut last year. Three runs at this trip have produced no wins or places while the first-time headgear is now reached for. Trainer's modest record at Ayr is offset by the jockey's solid 15% strike rate here.
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10Little Ted41/100
Little Ted is a limited performer who has been placed a few times without winning in recent seasons. He has shown some competitiveness on soft ground and has a win at this trip on his record though he drops back from 1m2f today. Course record is modest with one placing from five runs here.
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11Perfidia41/100
Perfidia is a modest performer who has been consistent enough to finish second twice this year yet has also shown plenty of lesser efforts. He has won at this trip but his record on soft ground is limited to one unplaced run and he has been well held both starts at Ayr. The yard has a solid 11% strike-rate here while the claimer has a modest 5% from a small sample.
KTB verdict
Ice Cube stands out on the KTB Fit ratings and looks the one to beat in a race where the pace may play into the hands of a well-timed closer. His course win, soft-ground success and the strong Ayr records of both trainer and jockey give him a clear edge over his rivals. Up The Jazz, Stoic Poet and Sanafi Zabeel are the most obvious dangers if they can overcome their respective soft-ground or trip queries, while the uncontested lead for Penelope's Sister adds an interesting tactical dimension.
KTB Selection Ice Cube
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:05 UTC, 18 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Ice Cube | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Up The Jazz | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Stoic Poet | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Sanafi Zabeel | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Filly Eilish | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Penelope's Sister | 10/3 | Coral |
| Yaaser | 10/1 | Coral |
| Starliner | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Peaceful Spirit | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Little Ted | 9/1 | LiveScore Bet |
| Perfidia | 25/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the pace shape favour a closer like the selection?
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, meaning Penelope's Sister is likely to get an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back, yet the majority of the field including Ice Cube are held-up types who will be hoping the leader comes back on soft ground.
How does Ice Cube's course and going record compare to the rest of the field?
Ice Cube has won here from one run at Ayr and has a win from one run on soft ground, whereas most others have either no wins or modest placings at the track and on the surface.
What first-time headgear runners are in the field?
Filly Eilish and Peaceful Spirit are both fitted with first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the strongest record at Ayr among those with runners?
Richard Spencer has a 17% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.29 from 42 runs, while Saffie Osborne is 27% with an A/E of 1.47 from 11 rides.
Who is likely to make the running?
Penelope's Sister tends to make the running or race on the pace and is the only front-runner in a field where the pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence.
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