4:15 Warwick
The 4:15 at Warwick is a Class 5 mares' handicap hurdle over 2m3f on good to firm ground. A field of eight runners lines up in a race that lacks any obvious leader, with the KTB Fit Scores suggesting a fairly tight contest at the top where the top four are separated by just nine points. Guts And Glory arrives with the highest rating of 60 and the advantage of a recent bumper win at this track, while the remainder of the field look held by recent form or questions to answer on trip, ground or both.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates no natural leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy will pay. With every horse in the field described as held up, the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace rather than an end-to-end gallop. The key question will be whether the lack of early speed allows the right horses to slot in comfortably and produce their efforts at the right moment in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Guts And Glory KTB Selection60/100
Guts And Glory is a useful performer who won a bumper on good to firm at this track last time and has already scored over today's trip. She now steps up in distance from her latest run over 2m2½f, which asks a fresh question. The four-year-old is dropping in class and showed she can produce her effort late when held up. Trainer Clive Boultbee-Brooks has a modest 7% strike rate at Warwick from 15 runs with an A/E of 0.42, though the combination with Stan Sheppard carries a 2/7 (29%) record. She has won on good to firm from one run and holds the highest KTB Fit Score of 60.
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2Barafundle Bay56/100
Barafundle Bay is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He showed little spark on his last three starts and now drops back in trip having already failed to make the frame at this distance. The five-year-old is held up with high confidence in that run-style and has won on good to firm from one run. Trainer Christian Williams brings a 14% strike rate at Warwick from 116 runs with an A/E of 1.5, while Jack Tudor is 16% at the track from 86 rides with an A/E of 1.42. The partnership holds an 11% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.90, and he carries a KTB Fit Score of 56.
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3Blackwater Lilly55/100
Blackwater Lilly is a useful performer who has been consistent without winning of late, finishing in the frame on four of her last five starts. She drops back in trip from 2m6f to 2m3f having failed to trouble the judge on her only previous run at today's distance, while three runs on good to firm have produced no win or place. The six-year-old is held up with high confidence and the trainer holds a 13% strike rate at Warwick from 144 runs with an A/E of 0.98. Jack Quinlan has a neutral score at the course. She carries a KTB Fit Score of 55.
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4Ballylicky Bay51/100
Ballylicky Bay is a fair performer who has shown some ability in recent starts, finishing placed on both outings this year. He drops back in trip today having been well held over 2m4f last time, and his sole run at this exact distance brought no success. The six-year-old is held up though with limited evidence and low confidence in that assessment. Trainer Kevin Pickard has a 25% strike rate at Warwick from four runs with an A/E of 1.47, but the claiming jockey Jack Stenhouse is 0% from four rides here with an A/E of 0. He was fifth on his only previous visit to the course and holds a KTB Fit Score of 51.
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5Lady Bee Great49/100
Lady Bee Great is a fair performer who has won twice this year but has been below form on her last two starts. She drops back in trip to a distance she has never tried, which asks a fresh question, while she remains unproven on good to firm ground. Trainer Matt Sheppard has an 11% strike rate at Warwick from 145 runs with an A/E of 1.09.
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6Jammy Jay49/100
Jammy Jay is a useful performer with solid recent form including two placed efforts this year. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while he remains unproven on good to firm ground. The yard has a 0% strike rate from 58 runs at Warwick.
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7Miracles Do Happen48/100
Miracles Do Happen is a useful performer who has shown enough in recent starts to suggest he can be competitive off this mark. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question and his record on good to firm is modest with no win or place from two runs. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Warwick from 10 runs.
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8Cappa Lass41/100
Cappa Lass is a fair performer on the balance of her ratings and race history but has looked limited in three completed starts, finishing well beaten on each occasion. First-time headgear is now fitted as she drops back in trip with only a small sample to judge on good to firm ground. The yard has a solid 19% strike rate at Warwick from 42 runs.
KTB verdict
Guts And Glory looks the most straightforward selection. She arrives in form after a bumper win on good to firm at this track, has already scored over today's trip, and is dropping in class while the yard's modest Warwick record is offset by the Sheppard's input. The steadily-run race should suit her held-up style provided she can time her run. Main dangers are Barafundle Bay, who brings a fair level of ability and strong yard and jockey Warwick figures, and the consistent Blackwater Lilly, though both need to bounce back from recent below-par efforts. Ballylicky Bay is the other principal but has his own trip and ground questions to answer.
KTB Selection Guts And Glory
This is the narrative read of the 4:15 Warwick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Warwick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Warwick results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over today's trip?
Guts And Glory has already scored over today's trip.
How many of the field are unproven on good to firm ground?
Lady Bee Great, Jammy Jay and Cappa Lass remain unproven on good to firm ground.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Warwick for the yard of the selection?
Clive Boultbee-Brooks has a 7% strike rate at Warwick from 15 runs with an A/E of 0.42.
Which horse is fitted with first-time headgear?
Cappa Lass is fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse in the field has the strongest trainer strike rate at the course?
Ballylicky Bay's trainer Kevin Pickard has a 25% strike rate at Warwick from four runs with an A/E of 1.47.
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