1:47 Listowel
This six-runner maiden for two-year-olds over 7f15y at Listowel on good ground looks an open and tentative affair with very little established form to go on. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched between 51 and 42, underlining how little separates the field on what is known so far. With the KTB Selection among those at the head of the ratings, the race should revolve around which of these lightly raced or debutant types can show the most natural ability on only their second or third public outing.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a natural leader and confidence in the forecast is low, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy to the pace is likely to pay. Most of the field are held-up types on the evidence available, so the key question is whether any horse can secure a prominent position without using up too much energy early. In a race short on front-running intent, the ability to quicken off a slow gallop or produce a late run at the right moment could prove decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Lake Lugano KTB Selection51/100
Lake Lugano has shown little on his sole start to date and remains hard to assess with only one run on the board. The trip looks suitable enough on paper yet has not produced any spark so far. Aidan O'Brien brings a solid 19% strike rate at Listowel from a big sample of 497 runs while the 5 lb claimer Jack Cleary is an unknown quantity in this context. The colt is unproven on good ground and has no course form on record. With a KTB Fit of 51 he sits jointly top of the ratings in a field where so much is unknown.
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2How Now51/100
How Now showed little at the Curragh on debut and now faces a stiff task stepping up in class. The yard has a modest 0% strike-rate from five runs at Listowel, which is a concern. Trip and ground remain unknown quantities given the small sample available. James Ryan takes the ride and has a respectable 13% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 2.15 from 16 rides. Rated 51 on KTB Fit, he is one of the joint highest in a race that offers little certainty.
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3Speakers Corner50/100
Speakers Corner has shown only modest form in two runs at this trip and now tries first-time headgear. The yard has a solid 19% strike rate at Listowel from a big sample. Everything else remains largely unknown given the small amount of evidence to date. W. M. Lordan is in the saddle with an 11% strike rate at the venue. Run-style is held up, usually producing his effort late on the limited evidence seen so far, and he is rated 50 on KTB Fit.
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4Loughrea N Roll47/100
Loughrea N Roll showed fair promise when third on debut over this trip and that run gives him a clear yardstick. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Listowel from a large sample. With only one run on the clock the overall picture remains tentative and the going suitability is simply unknown. J M Sheridan rides and the colt is held up, usually producing his effort late. He carries a KTB Fit of 47.
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5Churchill Bond47/100
Churchill Bond is a fair maiden who has shown steady progress in three runs, finishing a close third last time over this trip. The P. Twomey yard has a solid 28% strike rate at Listowel from 18 runs and first-time headgear is now applied to a horse that remains open to further improvement. Run-style is held up with medium confidence.
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6All Talk42/100
All Talk is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard's record at Listowel is too small a sample to judge. Pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here but with low data confidence the picture remains tentative.
KTB verdict
This remains a modest maiden in which very little is established. Lake Lugano is the KTB Selection despite having shown little on his sole start so far, largely on the strength of the powerful Aidan O'Brien 19% strike rate at Listowel from a huge sample. The selection's ability is still hard to gauge but the same applies across the whole field. Main dangers are Loughrea N Roll, who has the best piece of form on offer from his debut third, and Churchill Bond who continues to edge forward and now tries headgear.
KTB Selection Lake Lugano
This is the narrative read of the 1:47 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its racecourse debut?
All Talk is the newcomer with no racecourse experience.
Who is the only runner to have shown fair promise on debut?
Loughrea N Roll showed fair promise when third on debut over this trip.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Listowel in this field?
P. Twomey has a 28% strike rate at Listowel from 18 runs.
How many runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Speakers Corner and Churchill Bond are both wearing first-time headgear.
What is the run-style of the majority of the field?
Most runners are held up types who usually produce their effort late.
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