2:35 Warwick
This Class 4 mares' maiden hurdle at Warwick over 2m5f on good to firm ground brings together a field of nine where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top. Time In A Bottle heads the numbers on 62 with Esther Spring close behind on 60, while Rhythm of Life and Athena's Dream sit on 53 and 52 respectively. The overall KTB assessment points to a race where proven ability at a decent level meets several lightly raced or unexposed types stepping up or down in trip, with the majority unproven on the surface.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one horse is expected to bowl along clear with little to no pressure from the remainder of the field. Most of the principals, including the selection, are held-up types who will be produced late, while Ask Peter is the one runner likely to go forward. The key question is whether the uncontested leader can dictate a rhythm that proves hard for the closers to bridge in the latter stages on this good to firm surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Time In A Bottle KTB Selection62/100
Time In A Bottle is a smart performer who has been a consistent operator at a decent level with a string of placed efforts before a fall. The 6-year-old steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while remaining unproven on good to firm ground. Dan Skelton maintains a solid 21% strike rate at Warwick from a large sample of 700 runs. Usually held up and producing its effort late, the selection will be delivered with a late run off the strong pace. Recent form reads 226F-6 and it carries an official rating of 107.
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2Esther Spring60/100
Esther Spring has shown some promise on her last two starts, finishing sixth and then third here over shorter, though she remains lightly raced with only four runs under her belt. The step up to 2m5f poses a fresh question for this 4-year-old. Christian Williams has a solid 14% strike rate at Warwick from 119 runs while Jack Tudor is aboard with a 17% strike rate and A/E 1.47 from 89 rides at the track. Their combined trainer-jockey record reads 102/962 (11%) with an A/E of 0.90. She ran once on good to firm without placing and has course form reading third on her only visit.
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3Rhythm of Life53/100
Rhythm of Life is a useful performer on the balance of ratings and race history. The 5-year-old has shown consistent placed form this year yet lacks a recent win and now steps up in trip for the first time. Tom George holds a 12% strike rate at Warwick from 204 runs while Mr James King rides with a 12% strike rate and A/E 0.65 from 17 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, the gelding will be waited with off the expected strong pace. It carries an official rating of 104 and recent form reads 13-344 while remaining unproven on good to firm.
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4Athena's Dream52/100
Athena's Dream is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing second twice and third twice from her last five starts. The 4-year-old steps up in class today while the drop back in trip asks a fresh question and she remains unproven on good to firm ground. Harriet Dickin holds a solid 13% strike rate at Warwick from 24 runs. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, she will be ridden for a late run. Recent form reads -23529 and the official rating is 81.
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5Lady Dapple Rose49/100
Lady Dapple Rose is a useful performer on the balance of her ratings and race history yet arrives with a patchy recent record of 835-F9. Ben Pauling has a solid 16% strike rate at Warwick from 238 runs while the 5 lb claimer is aboard. She steps up in trip and in class having been unproven on good to firm ground and makes her first appearance here.
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6Golden Tiara45/100
Golden Tiara is a 5-year-old with a pedigree that suggests stamina should be no issue over 2m5f on good to firm ground. Olly Murphy has a solid 13% strike rate at Warwick from 194 runs and Sean Bowen rides. Recent jumps form of 6-U offers little encouragement and with low data confidence and no prior racecourse experience to go on, this remains very much an unknown quantity.
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7Ask Peter45/100
Ask Peter is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning of late, finishing in the frame on three of his last five starts. Anthony Honeyball has a solid 20% strike rate at Warwick from 55 runs. The 7-year-old drops back from a stiff 3m2f to a trip he has tried twice before without success, while he is 0-4 on good to firm ground and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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8Sweet Honey B45/100
Sweet Honey B is a fair performer on the balance of her ratings and race history. The 8-year-old steps up in trip today having last run over 2m4f, which asks a fresh question, and steps up in class. Clive Boultbee-Brooks has a 6% strike rate from 16 runs at Warwick and Richie McLernon is aboard.
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9Blue Siam36/100
Blue Siam is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning this year, finishing in the frame three times from his last five starts. The 4-year-old drops back from 3m2f to a trip he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him, while he has failed to place in three runs on good to firm ground. Syd Hosie has an 8% strike rate from 13 runs at Warwick.
KTB verdict
Time In A Bottle is the KTB Selection. A smart and consistent performer at a decent level prior to a fall, the selection brings the highest Fit Score and the benefit of Dan Skelton's strong record at Warwick. The step up in trip is the main unknown but the held-up run style looks well suited to the anticipated uncontested lead. Main dangers are Esther Spring, who has shown promise and has course form, and Rhythm of Life, who is useful on the balance of his figures and consistent this year.
KTB Selection Time In A Bottle
This is the narrative read of the 2:35 Warwick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Warwick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Warwick results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Ask Peter is the sole front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the principals are held-up types?
All four principals – Time In A Bottle, Esther Spring, Rhythm of Life and Athena's Dream – are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Warwick in this race?
Dan Skelton has a 21% strike rate at Warwick from 700 runs, the highest among trainers with supplied data.
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time?
Rhythm of Life is stepping up in trip for the first time.
How many runners are unproven on good to firm ground?
Time In A Bottle, Rhythm of Life, Athena's Dream, Lady Dapple Rose and Sweet Honey B have no runs or are unproven on good to firm.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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