Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 100 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.84).
Deterministic profile computed from 486 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 26 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Feb–Mar30% when favouritePaddy Hanlon: 9.1% from 55Claiming riders: 8.8%Sends off the favourite in 6% of races
The read
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 4.3% (n=94, Fair A/E 0.75). Paddy Hanlon rides 11% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.1%, A/E 0.95). The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (20%, n=30) and over 2m1f – 2m4f (10.7%, n=159). The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 2.9% over 35 runners, 4.7pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Mettal UK Handicap at Newbury (Jul 2024, £41,232). Seasonally, the yard fires Feb–Mar.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.3%−3.3
n=94 · A/E 0.75 · £1 −68.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
5.3%−2.3
n=76 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −51.80
Debutants · first career start
5%−2.6
n=20 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −15.67
First-time headgear · true-first definition
4.3%−3.3
n=23 · A/E 0.62 · £1 −12.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
6.1%−1.5
n=33 · A/E 0.95 · £1 +1.00
When favourite
30%
n=30 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −1.05
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8.8%+1.2
n=205 · A/E 0.87 · £1 +7.04
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
7.1%−0.5
n=14 · A/E 1.57 · £1 −6.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
Off a 0-7-day break20% vs 7.6% · n=30
On last-time-out winners14.3% vs 7.6% · n=42
With horses switching code3.7% vs 7.6% · n=109
Off a break of 180+ days2.9% vs 7.6% · n=35
With C&D winners12.1% vs 7.6% · n=33
Over 2m1f – 2m4f10.7% vs 7.6% · n=159
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle296237.8%−158.54
Chase131118.4%+78.25
Flat3525.7%−17.00
NH Flat2414.2%−21.80
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good213125.6%−7.30
Good to Soft128107.8%−43.50
Soft8689.3%−45.87
Heavy3139.7%−16.00
Good to Firm21419%+0.58
Standard (AW)500%−5.00
Firm200%−2.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Wincanton85910.6%−4.25
Newton Abbot6058.3%−33.93
Taunton4648.7%−30.99
Cheltenham3825.3%+70.50
Fontwell2926.9%−21.25
Stratford24416.7%+28.75
Chepstow2214.5%−11.00
Exeter2000%−20.00
Newbury1715.9%−6.00
Warwick1317.7%−10.00
Plumpton1317.7%−7.50
Worcester1200%−12.00
Hereford900%−9.00
Ascot800%−8.00
Ludlow8112.5%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4209209.6%+43.51
Class 512086.7%−83.55
Class 38356%−42.55
Class 23825.3%−20.00
Class 61915.3%−7.00
Class 11715.9%−9.50
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite361130.6%0.97+1.45
2nd–3rd fav861214%0.76−31.04
4th–6th fav165116.7%0.92−36.50
7th+ in betting19931.5%0.62−53.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f1591710.7%−35.97
1m5f – 2m13675.1%−92.50
2m5f – 3m12697.1%−51.87
Over 3m5147.8%+75.25
1m2f – 1m4f1100%−11.00
1m – 1m1f300%−3.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
202267710.4%+96.83
2023156159.6%−34.68
202410465.8%−69.87
20255911.7%−55.50
202610088%−55.87
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps313258%−101.62
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
5-7 runners1461611%−47.30
8-10 runners146106.8%−54.37
11-13 runners10876.5%+50.00
14-16 runners3900%−39.00
2-4 runners26311.5%−14.42
17+ runners2114.8%−14.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 92 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 46 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Anthony Charlton (12) and Milton Harris (3); 14 had their first archived run for this yard.
21 have since run for another yard, most often for Anthony Charlton (12) and Max Young (2); 39 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
5181031535205239
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 18% of 7,513 runs since 2008 (877 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 12.8% from 329. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.3% from 268.
Progeny have won 12.2% of 1,568 runs since 2008 (164 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.1% from 451. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 15.9% from 138. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.5% from 200.
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,920 runs since 2008 (163 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 3.8% from 132.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 26 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 486 · newest first
The latest 50 of 486 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 March 2022 to 23 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Syd Hosie's strike rate?
Syd Hosie has won 37 of 486 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 26 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Syd Hosie do best at?
Wincanton by strike rate: 9 wins from 85 runners (10.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Syd Hosie?
Paddy Hanlon, with 55 runners since 2022 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 5 (9.1%).
Is Syd Hosie in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Syd Hosie's Fair A/E?
0.84, from 486 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Syd Hosie·SR 7.6%·A/E 0.84
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