3:20 Bellewstown
The Johnny Kierans Memorial Handicap over 5f at Bellewstown features a field of ten limited performers, most carrying official ratings in the low-to-mid 50s. Conditions are yielding to soft, with the majority of the runners unproven on the surface, adding an element of uncertainty. KTB's Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, underlining the modest nature of the race overall and the likelihood that any horse showing a bit of spark could prove competitive.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up, a strong pace is anticipated and the confidence in that assessment is high. Banish Misfortune and Star Allure are the types to go forward early from their respective draws, setting a searching gallop that could leave the leaders vulnerable in the closing stages. This shape is expected to play into the hands of the hold-up performers, several of whom are among the principals, and the key question will be which of the patient runners can pick up the pieces when the pace collapses late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ballysax Lil' Mick56/100
Ballysax Lil' Mick is a limited performer who has shown only modest form this year and looks vulnerable from a mark that still looks stiff. He has placed once in two runs at Bellewstown and the trainer holds a solid 20% strike rate here from 20 runs. The trip is no problem as he has won over 5f but he remains unproven on yielding to soft ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will hope the anticipated strong pace sets things up for a late run. Wesley Joyce takes the ride for a trainer-jockey combination that has so far failed to strike in five attempts together.
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2Dandy Land KTB Selection56/100
Dandy Land is the KTB selection. A limited performer, he has shown bits of ability on quicker ground, including a win at this trip and a placed effort here at Bellewstown. The trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate at the track from a big sample. Jockey Sam Coen is 0-6 at Bellewstown with a modest A/E of 0.41. Unproven on yielding to soft, he is the one who could capitalise if the race falls apart late given his high-confidence hold-up style. Recent form of 683218 includes a second and a win, and the yard's 4/11 record with this jockey underlines the positive trainer-jockey combination.
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3Steel Magnolia54/100
Steel Magnolia is a limited performer who has shown her best around here with a second and a fourth from four visits to Bellewstown. She has a win over today's trip on her record but is unproven on yielding to soft ground. Trainer W. McCreery has a solid 14% strike rate at the track while jockey W. J. Lee is also established here with an 11% strike rate from 196 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, she is well placed to take advantage of the expected strong pace. Her recent form of 347213 includes a win and a second, and she represents the same yard as the selection.
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4El Fontenaro50/100
El Fontenaro is a limited performer who has been in and out this season and showed nothing when seventh on his only previous run here. He drops back to 5f today having been placed twice at the trip without winning, though he has failed to place in two runs on yielding to soft ground. Trainer Jarlath P Fahey has a 7% strike rate from 45 runs at Bellewstown while the 5lb claimer Reese Holohan is making his first appearance at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the strong pace to materialise to play a part from draw 5. His recent form of 402215 shows glimpses of ability at this distance.
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5One Cool Bear45/100
One Cool Bear is a limited horse who has struggled this season with a string of poor efforts. He drops back to 5f in first-time headgear having looked stretched over 6f last time, though he is unproven on yielding to soft ground. Trainer Adrian McGuinness operates at an 8% strike rate here from a big sample. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be hoping the race sets up for closers. Recent form of 470088 offers little encouragement, but the headgear is an interesting addition from draw 1.
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6Banish Misfortune42/100
Banish Misfortune is a limited performer who has shown very little in five starts. She finished eighth on her only visit to this track and has been well beaten at this trip on both attempts. The trainer has had too few runners here to form any reliable pattern. Tending to make the running or race on the pace with high confidence, she is one of those who could help ensure the strong pace materialises.
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7Smart Sioux40/100
Smart Sioux is a limited performer who has shown little in ten runs and was well beaten on her only visit to this track. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Bellewstown adds little encouragement and the yard has struggled here overall. Unproven on yielding to soft ground while five runs at this trip have produced no wins or places. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence.
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8Gold Inn37/100
Gold Inn is a limited performer who has shown little in five runs and was well beaten when last seen over a mile. He drops sharply in trip to 5f for the first time today which asks a fresh question. The trainer has a 2% strike rate from 43 runs at Bellewstown while the horse could only manage eighth on its one visit here. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
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9Star Allure31/100
Star Allure is a limited performer who has been out of the frame on her last five starts and looks vulnerable again from stall 8. She has shown some ability on this track with a third and a fifth here, and she has also placed once at today's trip, yet she is 0-2 on yielding-to-soft ground. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Bellewstown adds to the negatives. Tending to make the running or race on the pace.
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10Hastily29/100
Hastily is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has placed once from three runs at Bellewstown and drops back to 5f where he has won once from seven attempts, though his sole run on yielding to soft ground brought no joy. The trainer operates at a 0% strike rate from nine runs here while the jockey is on his first ride at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late.
KTB verdict
Dandy Land is the KTB selection in a race where the principals are closely matched on Fit ratings. He has shown bits of ability on quicker ground including a win at this trip and a placed effort at Bellewstown, and the trainer's solid record at the track adds to his appeal. The strong pace that is likely to unfold should suit his hold-up style, and he can come out on top if the leaders fold. Ballysax Lil' Mick, Steel Magnolia and El Fontenaro are the main dangers, with the latter two also holding up well and having shown some course form.
KTB Selection Dandy Land
This is the narrative read of the 3:20 Bellewstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bellewstown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bellewstown results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which runners are likely to set the strong pace?
Banish Misfortune and Star Allure are the front-runners expected to go forward early and ensure a searching gallop.
How many of the field are unproven on yielding to soft ground?
The majority are unproven, with only El Fontenaro, Gold Inn, Star Allure and Hastily having any experience on the surface.
Which horse has the best trainer strike rate at Bellewstown among the principals?
Ballysax Lil' Mick's trainer has a 20% strike rate at Bellewstown from 20 runs.
Why is the race shape expected to favour hold-up horses?
A strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could cause the leaders to collapse late.
Which horse is wearing first-time headgear?
One Cool Bear is fitted with first-time headgear.
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