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Trainer profile

Tom McGuinness

174 runners in the last 5 seasons · 14 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner yesterday
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2021→)
from 1 Jan 2022
10–174
Wins / Runs
5.7%
Strike rate
n=174
21 (12%)
Placed
1.67
Fair A/E
n=173 · 1.33 incl. margin
−56.75
£1 level stake
n=174 at SP · −32.6%
£74,262
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
9.5%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, winning with 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.67). With a claiming rider up the record reads 9% (85 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 174 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 9.4%
The read

Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 9.4% (n=85, Fair A/E 1.88). The yard also reads well off a 15-30-day break (10%, n=50) and on Standard (AW) going (9.4%, n=32). The record reads poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 1.9% over 53 runners, 3.8pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−5.7
n=29 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −29.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.7
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.7
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
20%+14.3
n=5 · A/E 6.69 · £1 +4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
20%+14.3
n=10 · A/E 5.03 · £1 +21.00
When favourite
20%
n=5 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −1.25
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
9.4%+3.7
n=85 · A/E 1.88 · £1 +2.25

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Killian Leonard 0% vs 5.7% · n=37
Off a 15-30-day break 10% vs 5.7% · n=50
With claiming riders up 9.4% vs 5.7% · n=85
Over 1m – 1m1f 1.9% vs 5.7% · n=53
On Standard (AW) going 9.4% vs 5.7% · n=32
On Soft going 2.6% vs 5.7% · n=39
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 147 8 5.4% −53.75
Hurdle 26 2 7.7% −2.00
Chase 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 55 3 5.5% −18.00
Soft 39 1 2.6% −35.25
Standard (AW) 32 3 9.4% −0.50
Good to Soft 30 1 3.3% −17.00
Heavy 13 0 0% −13.00
Good to Firm 5 2 40% +27.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Gowran Park 28 0 0% −28.00
Dundalk (AW) 27 3 11.1% +4.50
Cork 19 2 10.5% +17.00
Fairyhouse 16 0 0% −16.00
Naas 13 0 0% −13.00
Wexford 10 2 20% +14.00
Chepstow 8 2 25% +14.00
Bellewstown 8 0 0% −8.00
Curragh 8 0 0% −8.00
Tramore 7 0 0% −7.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 5 0 0% −5.00
Ffos Las 4 1 25% −0.25
Navan 4 0 0% −4.00
Leopardstown 4 0 0% −4.00
Clonmel 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 15 3 20% +10.75
Class 5 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 5 1 20% 0.90 −1.25
2nd–3rd fav 8 0 0% 0.00 −8.00
4th–6th fav 16 4 25% 3.34 +18.50
7th+ in betting 145 5 3.4% 1.97 −66.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Hastily (GB) 49 4 9 9 Oct 26
Esticky End (IRE)from David & Nicola Barron 31 3 5 19 Oct 26
Coffeemeanscoffee (IRE)from W J Martin 21 2 3 20 Sep 25
Plastic Paddy (GB)from Michael Appleby 18 0 0 7 Aug 26
Viva Voce (IRE)from David & Nicola Barron 14 1 4 20 Jan 25
El Maga (IRE)from Phillip Makin 11 0 0 31 Jul 23
Merlins Muse (USA) 10 0 0 31 Jul 23
Bella Rosetta (GB)from Joseph Parr 6 0 0 21 Oct 22
An Madra Mor (IRE) 4 0 0 13 May 23
Nyota (IRE)from M Halford & T Collins 3 0 0 19 Nov 25
Muhtady (IRE) 3 0 0 15 Oct 22
Spencer Dock (IRE)from Michael G Cleary 2 0 0 20 Sep 25
All 14 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 14 horses listed, 9 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from David & Nicola Barron (2); 5 had their first archived run for this yard.

None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 3
Only 3 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
000000131300038
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderKillian Leonard
21% of all rides
0% SR · A/E 0.00
RiderRWSR£1
Killian Leonard 37 0 0% −37.00
Jack Cleary 37 3 8.1% +9.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2021→
11
Archived wins
£84,562
Prize money
2024
Best season · 3 wins
Hastily (GB) — Follow Us On Social Media Handicap (47-65) Cork · Aug 2022
£6,195
Esticky End (IRE) — HRI Best Turned-Out Flat League Handicap (47-65) (Div 2) Dundalk (AW) · Dec 2024
£6,195
Viva Voce (IRE) — Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Stadium Apprentice Handicap (47-65) (Div 2) Dundalk (AW) · Dec 2024
£6,195
Notable horses
Hastily (GB) Esticky End (IRE) Coffeemeanscoffee (IRE) Viva Voce (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Charm Spirit (IRE) 8.2% · 4–49
Progeny have won 9.4% of 3,806 runs since 2008 (339 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 448. Weakest on Heavy going: 3.8% from 133. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 445.
Estidhkaar (IRE) 9.7% · 3–31
Progeny have won 6.9% of 1,586 runs since 2008 (112 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.8% from 119. Weakest on Soft going: 2.6% from 227.
Elzaam (AUS) 8.3% · 2–24
Progeny have won 9.2% of 4,514 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.7% from 322.
Buratino (IRE) 0% · 0–18
Progeny have won 7.5% of 1,878 runs since 2008 (118 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.2% from 118.
Intense Focus (USA) 7.1% · 1–14
Progeny have won 8.3% of 3,630 runs since 2008 (218 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 11.5% from 349. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 11.5% from 384.
Mehmas (IRE) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 11.6% of 8,107 runs since 2008 (747 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 195 · newest first

The latest 50 of 195 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 July 2021 to 19 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Victors Spirit (SAF)J: Killian Leonard Racing Again November 7th Handicap12f · Soft · 14 ran 13th 150/1
19 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Esticky End (IRE)J: Killian Leonard Racing Club Membership Handicap (Div I)8.5f · Soft · 16 ran 9th 66/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Hastily (GB)J: Julian Pietropaolo Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (Div I)7f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 66/1
02 Oct 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Esticky End (IRE)J: Dylan Robinson Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (Div I)20f · Good · 20 ran 15th 25/1
29 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Hastily (GB)J: Shay Wallace WTW Willis Handicap6f · Soft · 19 ran 9th 25/1
16 Sep 26 Clonmel (IRE) Hastily (GB)J: Julian Pietropaolo Camida Winning Solution Handicap10f · Yielding · 14 ran 13th 33/1
07 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) Esticky End (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Pat Farrell Memorial Handicap Hurdle (Div II)20f · Good · 14 ran 1st 6/1
07 Aug 26 Wexford (IRE) Plastic Paddy (GB)J: Patrick M O'Brien Think Print & Design Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 14 ran PU 200/1
24 Jul 26 Cork (IRE) Hastily (GB)J: Julian Pietropaolo Follow Us On Social Media Handicap6f · Good To Firm · 19 ran 9th 11/1
23 Jul 26 Wexford (IRE) Esticky End (IRE)J: Dylan Robinson Park Run At Wexford Saturday Mornings Handicap Hurdle (Div I)16.5f · Good · 12 ran 1st 16/1
23 Jul 26 Wexford (IRE) Plastic Paddy (GB)J: Dylan Robinson Kilmore Quay (C & G) Maiden Hurdle16.5f · Good · 13 ran PU 300/1
03 Jul 26 Wexford Esticky End (IRE)J: Dylan Robinson Clearwater Construction Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)17f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 20/1
02 Jul 26 Bellewstown Plastic Paddy (GB)J: Alan Persse Ploughman Bar And Grill Handicap (0-60)8f · Good · 15 ran 14th 50/1
12 Jun 26 Gowran Park Hastily (GB)J: Killian Leonard Societies Welcome At Gowran Park Golf Club Handicap (0-60)8f · Yielding · 14 ran 13th 125/1
30 May 26 Tramore Esticky End (IRE)J: Dylan Robinson Get A Free Month Trial Of Racing TV Now racingtv.com/freetrial Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Good · 15 ran PU 28/1
30 May 26 Tramore Hastily (GB)J: Dylan Robinson Dunmore East Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 15 ran 14th 300/1
27 May 26 Wexford Plastic Paddy (GB)J: Dylan Robinson Wexford Claiming Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 9 ran PU 250/1
20 May 26 Gowran Park Hastily (GB)J: Jack Cleary Membership At Gowran Park Golf Club Handicap (0-60)8f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 15th 66/1
16 May 26 Wexford Esticky End (IRE)J: Dylan Robinson Slaney River Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 2)17f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 7th 25/1
13 May 26 Punchestown Plastic Paddy (GB)J: Cian Cullinan Ladbrokes Maiden Hurdle24f · Good To Yielding · 7 ran PU 250/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Tom McGuinness's strike rate?
Tom McGuinness has won 10 of 174 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 5.7% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Tom McGuinness in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 3 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Tom McGuinness's Fair A/E?
1.67, from 173 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).