Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 40 runners a season, winning with 6% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.98).
Deterministic profile computed from 182 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
The read
The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (9.1%, n=33) and over 1m2f – 1m4f (8.8%, n=34). The record reads poorly on Good going — 0% over 39 runners, 5.5pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 5.5% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.3%−1.2
n=47 · A/E 1.51 · £1 +17.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.5
n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.5
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.5
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
12%+6.5
n=25 · A/E 2.00 · £1 +6.00
When favourite
28.6%
n=7 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +0.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.6%−0.9
n=109 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −5.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−5.5
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Chris Hayes13.3% vs 5.5% · n=30
On Good going0% vs 5.5% · n=39
Off a 8-14-day break9.1% vs 5.5% · n=33
Over 1m2f – 1m4f8.8% vs 5.5% · n=34
With C&D winners8.6% vs 5.5% · n=35
At Dundalk (AW)7.8% vs 5.5% · n=64
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Flat15895.7%−28.25
Hurdle1815.6%−5.00
Chase400%−4.00
NH Flat200%−2.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)6557.7%+11.75
Good3900%−39.00
Soft3837.9%+9.00
Good to Soft2214.5%−9.00
Heavy1715.9%−11.00
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW)6457.8%+12.75
Bellewstown1616.3%−11.00
Navan1516.7%−2.00
Gowran Park1300%−13.00
Fairyhouse1100%−11.00
Roscommon900%−9.00
Leopardstown8225%+11.00
Naas700%−7.00
Tipperary6116.7%+23.00
Curragh600%−6.00
Down Royal600%−6.00
Ballinrobe300%−3.00
Sligo300%−3.00
Punchestown300%−3.00
Limerick200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite9222.2%1.04−1.25
2nd–3rd fav15213.3%0.92−5.00
4th–6th fav3226.3%0.83−13.00
7th+ in betting12643.2%1.07−20.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f6246.5%−43.25
1m2f – 1m4f3438.8%+59.00
1m – 1m1f3412.9%−29.00
Under 6f1800%−18.00
1m5f – 2m1516.7%−2.00
2m5f – 3m800%−8.00
2m1f – 2m4f7114.3%+6.00
Over 3m400%−4.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2022700%−7.00
202338410.5%−12.25
20246746%−14.00
20255024%+14.00
20262000%−20.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps163106.1%−20.25
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
14-16 runners9344.3%−58.00
11-13 runners4137.3%+26.75
17+ runners2813.6%+1.00
8-10 runners15213.3%−4.00
5-7 runners500%−5.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 26 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 26 horses listed, 22 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from James McAuley (5) and John C McConnell (3); 4 had their first archived run for this yard.
5 have since run for another yard, most often for T G McCourt (3); 21 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
17177040506806
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
22
Archived wins
£281k
Prize money
2024
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Ros Brin (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms European Breeders Fund Mares Handicap Chase Fairyhouse · Nov 2014
£17,875
He's Our Man (IRE) — 5th July All American Family Fun Day Handicap (60-90) Limerick · Jun 2015
Progeny have won 9.4% of 3,806 runs since 2008 (339 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15% from 448. Weakest on Heavy going: 3.8% from 133. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 445.
Lord Kanaloa (JPN)15% · 3–20
Progeny have won 10.1% of 159 runs since 2008 (18 horses).
Progeny have won 5.1% of 351 runs since 2008 (30 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 724 · newest first
The latest 50 of 724 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 January 2005 to 15 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is G A Kingston's strike rate?
G A Kingston has won 10 of 182 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 5.5% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does G A Kingston do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 5 wins from 64 runners (7.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is G A Kingston in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is G A Kingston's Fair A/E?
0.98, from 182 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
G A Kingston·SR 5.5%·A/E 0.98
KTB
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