4:35 Worcester
The 4:35 at Worcester is a Class 4 handicap hurdle over 2m4f on good ground with a field of ten. KTB's Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Constantinian on 61, with four others between 56 and 60, suggesting a competitive race where class, trip suitability and the strong pace are likely to be decisive. The selection sits at the head of the numbers and brings the right blend of placed form at the trip and a sensible drop back in distance after a poor run over further.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present, notably Getaway With You and Maximum Benefit, while Not At That Price also tends to race prominently. This shape should ensure the race is truly run and sets up for those held up off the pace, with several principals including Constantinian, Vicki Vale, Fighting Falcon, Brookside La and Gasmani all preferring to come from off it. The key question is whether the leaders will pay for their exertions late on, allowing the hold-up horses to capitalise as the race collapses.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Constantinian KTB Selection61/100
Constantinian is a useful performer who showed strong placed form over this trip before a poor effort when pulled up over 3m last time. The drop back in distance looks a sensible move given his record at 2m4f, and the good ground is also in his favour. He steps up in class today but arrives with untapped potential at this trip. The trainer has a solid 22% strike rate at Worcester though the claiming jockey is operating below the course average with a 9% strike rate and A/E 0.62 from 34 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is ideally placed to benefit from the strong pace that is expected. His recent form reads /243-P.
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2Vicki Vale60/100
Vicki Vale is a smart performer who has won over today's trip. It has been a long time since her last run and her only visit to Worcester ended in a pulled-up effort on good ground where she is 0-4. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at the track is offset by the jockey's solid 23% record at Worcester from 166 rides with an A/E of 1.27. Usually held up and producing her effort late with medium confidence, she should be suited by the strong pace on offer. Her recent form figures read 5P4/4- and she carries an official rating of 109.
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3Fighting Falcon60/100
Fighting Falcon is a smart performer who showed his class with a clear-cut win at this track last month before pulling up quickly at Aintree. He drops back to a trip he has won over from two attempts and acts on good ground, recording one win and one place from two runs. The trainer and jockey both have solid Worcester records, the trainer at 15% strike rate and A/E 0.96 from 40 runs, though the jockey's 9% strike rate and A/E 0.77 from 161 rides is the more modest of the two. Usually held up with high confidence, he is well positioned against the expected strong pace. His recent form reads P33-1P while stepping up in class off an OR of 105.
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4Brookside La59/100
Brookside La is a smart performer who has won over today's trip and arrives in decent form after three placed efforts from her last four starts. She drops back from 3m while making her first visit to Worcester. The trainer and jockey both hold solid records at the track, the yard at 17% strike rate and A/E 0.77 from 409 runs, with the jockey on 20% strike rate and A/E 0.86 from 394 rides. Usually held up with high confidence, she should relish the strong pace on good ground where she has been competitive without winning from three starts. Her recent form reads 54133-.
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5Gasmani56/100
Gasmani is a smart performer who showed useful form when winning twice last season. His Worcester record is modest with a poor run here on latest start and the drop back from 2m7f raises a question about his optimum trip. The trainer and jockey both have below-average strike rates at the track, the yard at 7% and A/E 0.64 from 128 runs, the jockey at 11% and A/E 0.72 from 216 rides. Usually held up with high confidence, he is another who should be suited by the strong pace. He carries an OR of 111 with recent form /912-8.
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6Not At That Price55/100
Not At That Price is a smart performer who has shown consistent placed form over shorter trips and arrives here off the back of a solid second last time. He steps up to 2m4f for the first time today which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also applied. The trainer holds a 15% strike rate at Worcester from 334 runs and the jockey is operating at 18% from 255 rides here. Usually races prominently and his recent form reads /263-2.
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7Roe And Co52/100
Roe And Co is a useful performer who arrives in good order after a string of three wins earlier this season before two pulled-up efforts. He drops back from 3m1f to a trip he has tried once without success, while first-time headgear is now fitted. The trainer and jockey both have solid records at Worcester. His recent form reads 111PP-.
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8October Hill51/100
October Hill is a useful performer who has won over today's trip and has placed five times from ten runs on good ground. He has only one run here so far and that ended in a bring-down, though the yard's solid 14% strike-rate at Worcester offers some reassurance. Recent form has been patchy with figures -1B256.
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9Maximum Benefit49/100
Maximum Benefit is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history but has looked limited in recent starts and failed to place in any of his six runs. He steps up in trip here for the first time while wearing headgear for the first time, both unknowns. The trainer has a solid 10% strike rate from 81 runs at Worcester while the jockey is operating at a 6% strike rate from 34 rides at the track. Recent form reads 60450-.
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10Getaway With You44/100
Getaway With You is a useful performer who has placed here without winning in three runs at Worcester. He drops back to a trip he has won at four times from 20 attempts though his recent form of 445-77 is nothing to shout about. The trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at the track. Usually makes the running.
KTB verdict
Constantinian looks the pick on KTB's numbers and the selection. He showed strong placed form over this trip before a poor run over further, and the return to 2m4f on good ground is a sensible move that should see him competitive from off the strong pace. Vicki Vale, Fighting Falcon and Brookside La all have solid claims on their best form and are also suited by the shape, while Gasmani cannot be entirely dismissed despite his modest Worcester record. The race is likely to be decided in the final furlong as the front-runners come back to the field.
KTB Selection Constantinian
This is the narrative read of the 4:35 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Worcester results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping back in distance after a poor run over 3m?
Constantinian, who showed strong placed form over 2m4f before being pulled up over 3m last time.
How many habitual front-runners are in the field and what does this mean for the pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners are present, making a strong pace likely that could collapse late and favour hold-up horses.
Which runner has won over the course and distance and most recently won at Worcester?
Fighting Falcon, who recorded a clear-cut win at this track last month before pulling up at Aintree.
Who is the only horse in the race wearing first-time headgear that also tends to make the running?
Maximum Benefit, who is also stepping up in trip for the first time.
Which principal has the strongest trainer and jockey combined record at Worcester?
Vicki Vale, where the trainer's modest 7% strike rate is offset by the jockey James Bowen's solid 23% record at the track.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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