Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.40).
Deterministic profile computed from 158 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 21 Oct 2026
The read
Runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 2.9% (n=34, Fair A/E 0.80). The yard also reads well off a 31-60-day break (10.8%, n=37) and on Good to Soft going (10.3%, n=39). One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase at Newton Abbot (Aug 2010, £22,532). The stable star of the record: Passato (GER) — 9 wins from 57 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.8%−2.2
n=62 · A/E 1.35 · £1 −16.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−7.0
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.0
n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.0
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−7.0
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
When favourite
50%
n=2 · A/E 1.61 · £1 +0.62
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.9%−4.1
n=34 · A/E 0.80 · £1 −26.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With Gavin Sheehan14.9% vs 7% · n=47
With horses switching code0% vs 7% · n=31
With claiming riders up2.9% vs 7% · n=34
Off a 31-60-day break10.8% vs 7% · n=37
On Good to Soft going10.3% vs 7% · n=39
Over 2m1f – 2m4f4.2% vs 7% · n=48
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle10088%−10.90
NH Flat2813.6%−20.00
Chase1800%−18.00
Flat12216.7%+5.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good6634.5%−29.38
Good to Soft39410.3%+9.88
Soft2926.9%−17.40
Heavy1200%−12.00
Standard (AW)11218.2%+6.00
Good to Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Worcester20315%+9.88
Huntingdon18211.1%+9.00
Fontwell1317.7%−8.40
Uttoxeter1100%−11.00
Warwick1000%−10.00
Wincanton800%−8.00
Ffos Las8112.5%+18.00
Chepstow700%−7.00
Kempton (AW)6233.3%+11.00
Exeter600%−6.00
Lingfield5120%+2.00
Leicester500%−5.00
Stratford400%−4.00
Hereford400%−4.00
Plumpton400%−4.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 57256.9%−11.90
Class 46945.8%−25.12
Class 31000%−10.00
Class 64125%+3.50
Class 23133.3%−0.38
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite2150%1.61+0.62
2nd–3rd fav14321.4%1.56+0.98
4th–6th fav5147.8%1.17−11.50
7th+ in betting9133.3%1.61−34.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m7356.8%−25.88
2m1f – 2m4f4824.2%−26.12
2m5f – 3m2328.7%+10.00
Over 3m6116.7%−1.40
6f – 7f3133.3%+4.50
1m – 1m1f300%−3.00
1m2f – 1m4f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20222500%−25.00
20233738.1%−7.62
20243239.4%+9.00
20253638.3%−6.38
20262827.1%−13.90
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps78911.5%+25.22
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners5559.1%−8.38
11-13 runners4436.8%+1.00
5-7 runners3837.9%−15.52
14-16 runners1300%−13.00
2-4 runners500%−5.00
17+ runners300%−3.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 31 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 31 horses listed, 15 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Anthony Carson (2) and Henry De Bromhead (2); 16 had their first archived run for this yard.
3 have since run for another yard; 28 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
00130811029117012
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
57
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£497k
Prize money
2012
Best season · 7 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Passato (GER) — Lord Mildmay Memorial Handicap Chase (Listed) Newton Abbot · Aug 2010 · Listed
£22,532
Benvoy (IRE) — Sodexo Live! Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Ascot · Mar 2025 · Class 2
£20,812
Passato (GER) — Jon Pinfold Industrial Cleaners Handicap Chase Stratford · May 2010 · Class 3
Progeny have won 11.7% of 2,122 runs since 2008 (265 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 316. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 7.9% from 190.
Progeny have won 8.3% of 1,312 runs since 2008 (183 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 11.8% from 212.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 21 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 1,061 · newest first
The latest 50 of 1,061 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2005 to 7 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Jo Davis's strike rate?
Jo Davis has won 11 of 158 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7% (as at 21 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Jo Davis's Fair A/E?
1.40, from 157 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Jo Davis·SR 7%·A/E 1.40
KTB
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