4:05 Kempton (AW)
This Class 4 fillies' novice stakes over 6f at Kempton on standard to slow ground features an interesting mix of lightly raced juveniles and a couple with more experience. The KTB Fit scores are headed by Bidsta on 62, some way clear of the remainder, with the next three principals clustered between 51 and 48. With no standout front-runner the race looks set to be tactical, and the numbers suggest a muddling pace that will reward those positioned close to the action.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as muddling and tactical with medium confidence. No horse is an obvious front-runner, so expect a contested lead or a steady gallop with several runners up with the pace. This should suit those ridden close to the lead or prominent, while the held-up types will need to time their runs carefully off what could be a modest tempo. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the closers will be able to pick up the pieces late.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Bidsta KTB Selection62/100
Bidsta tops the KTB Fit ratings on 62 and is the clear selection. She holds an official rating of 81 after two runs that read 21, showing ability in winning her latest start. Trained by George Boughey, whose record at Kempton on the all-weather is a 15% strike rate with an A/E of 0.93 from 310 runs, she is ridden by Billy Loughnane who has a 16% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.95 from 458 rides. The trainer and jockey combination shows 178 wins from 946 rides for 19% with an A/E of 0.85. Usually held up and producing her effort late, though with limited evidence and low confidence in that assessment, she remains unproven on standard to slow ground and has no previous course form.
-
2Bling51/100
Bling is rated 51 on the KTB Fit scale and comes into this after two runs that read 57. Trained by Hugo Palmer, who has a 15% strike rate at Kempton on the all-weather with an A/E of 0.95 from 477 runs, she is partnered by David Probert whose record at the venue is 11% with an A/E of 0.95 from 2187 rides. The trainer and jockey show 18 wins from 155 rides for 12% with an A/E of 1.02. Usually races prominently, on or close to the lead, though this is based on limited evidence with low confidence. She is unproven on standard to slow ground and has no course form to date.
-
3Halliwell Stream48/100
Halliwell Stream is rated 48 on KTB Fit and holds an official rating of 70 after three runs that read 445. Trained by Jane Chapple-Hyam, who has a 13% strike rate at Kempton on the all-weather with an A/E of 1.02 from 498 runs, she is ridden by Edward Greatrex whose record at the track is 11% with an A/E of 0.93 from 336 rides. The trainer and jockey combination records 1 win from 6 rides for 17%. She usually races prominently, on or close to the lead, though this is with limited evidence and low confidence. Unproven on standard to slow ground, she has no previous course form.
-
4Wintour48/100
Wintour is rated 48 on the KTB Fit scale and is dropping in class. After two runs that read 96 she is trained by Clive Cox, whose record at Kempton on the all-weather is 13% with an A/E of 0.92 from 984 runs. Harry Davies takes the ride and has a 9% strike rate at the venue with an A/E of 0.81 from 271 rides. The trainer and jockey show 0 wins from 14 rides for 0% with an A/E of 0.00. She is unproven on standard to slow ground and has no course form on record.
-
5Threelittleangels47/100
Threelittleangels is rated 47 on KTB Fit after one run that read 3. Trained by Roger Teal, who has a 9% strike rate at Kempton on the all-weather with an A/E of 0.87 from 508 runs, she is ridden by Joe Leavy whose record at the track is 6% with an A/E of 0.61 from 160 rides. The trainer and jockey show 7 wins from 72 rides for 10% with an A/E of 0.82. Usually held up and producing her effort late with limited evidence and low confidence, she has course form having finished third here on her only start at the venue and remains unproven on standard to slow ground.
-
6Lucille Cee47/100
Lucille Cee is rated 47 on KTB Fit. Trained by Tom Clover, who has a 7% strike rate at Kempton on the all-weather with an A/E of 0.6 from 214 runs, she is ridden by Neil Callan whose record at the track is 14% with an A/E of 1.03 from 1021 rides. The trainer and jockey show 14 wins from 97 rides for 14% with an A/E of 0.92. By Blackbeard, who has a 16% overall win rate from 158 runners, she has no course win on record and is unproven on standard to slow ground.
-
7Sarasota Blue Blue44/100
Sarasota Blue Blue is rated 44 on KTB Fit after one run that read 7 and is dropping in class. Trained by Sir Mark Prescott Bt, who has an 11% strike rate at Kempton on the all-weather with an A/E of 0.82 from 666 runs, she is ridden by Jack Gilligan whose record at the track is 7% with an A/E of 0.85 from 28 rides. The trainer and jockey show 8 wins from 53 rides for 15% with an A/E of 0.76. She remains unproven on standard to slow ground and has no course form on record.
-
8Lilywhite Hart41/100
Lilywhite Hart is rated 41 on KTB Fit and holds an official rating of 66 after five runs that read 95563. She is stepping up in class. Trained by Dean Ivory, who has a 9% strike rate at Kempton on the all-weather with an A/E of 0.93 from 1080 runs, she is ridden by Kieran O'Neill whose record at the track is 5% with an A/E of 0.65 from 941 rides. The trainer and jockey show 4 wins from 66 rides for 6% with an A/E of 0.69. Usually races prominently with medium confidence in that assessment, she is unproven on standard to slow ground and has no course form on record.
KTB verdict
Bidsta stands out on the KTB Fit ratings and is taken as the selection. Her progressive form, official rating of 81 and the strength of the Boughey and Loughnane combination at this venue give her a clear edge. The muddling pace should play to her strengths if she can be produced at the right time from her held-up position. The main dangers are Bling and Halliwell Stream, both of whom like to race prominently and could take advantage if the race lacks early speed, while Wintour is dropping in class and cannot be entirely ruled out.
KTB Selection Bidsta
This is the narrative read of the 4:05 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Kempton (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score?
Bidsta on 62/100.
How many of these runners have previous course form at Kempton?
Only Threelittleangels, who finished third on her sole start here.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Kempton on the all-weather among those represented?
George Boughey with a 15% strike rate and A/E of 0.93 from 310 runs.
What is the run-style of the KTB Selection?
Usually held up and produces its effort late, though with limited evidence and low confidence.
Which two principals are dropping or stepping in class?
Wintour is dropping in class while Lilywhite Hart is stepping up in class.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies