3:28 Naas
The RFL Steels Stakes is a Listed race over 5f 205y at Naas on soft ground, featuring a compact field of nine that includes several smart performers with solid course form. Two Stars heads the KTB Fit ratings on 66 while three others sit in the 57-60 bracket, suggesting a competitive heat where course experience and proven ability on soft ground could prove decisive. Overall the numbers point to a race in which established track performers hold the edge over those with more to prove on the surface or at the trip.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is tentative with medium confidence, as there is only thin evidence of a confirmed front-runner in the field. La Brodeuse is the one horse whose run-style suggests she may take the field along or race prominently, though the majority — including the two highest-rated principals — are typically held up and produce their effort late. This could set up a race in which the early lead is uncontested or modest, posing the key question of whether those coming from off the pace can close effectively on soft ground or whether a prominent runner can steal it.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Two Stars KTB Selection66/100
Two Stars arrives with a KTB Fit of 66 and is the clear selection. A smart performer, he has won both starts at Naas, including a Listed race here last year, and already boasts a win on soft ground from two starts. He steps back up to this trip today having looked better at shorter distances, and his recent form of 2/118- underlines his quality. The trainer has a 12% strike rate at Naas with an A/E of 1.03 from 177 runs while the jockey posts 8% with an A/E of 0.83 from 170 rides, both solid rather than sparkling. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 5 and carries an official rating of 105.
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2Bamako Beach60/100
Bamako Beach is rated 60 on KTB Fit and is a smart performer who has already shown his ability at this track with a good second here on his penultimate start. He has won twice this year but was well held in Group company last time and now drops back to an untried 5f for the first time while wearing first-time headgear. The trainer has a 12% strike rate at Naas with an A/E of 0.91 from 268 runs while the jockey is operating at just 4% with an A/E of 0.46 from 98 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he carries an official rating of 105 from draw 2 and remains unproven on soft ground.
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3Big Gossey59/100
Big Gossey is rated 59 on KTB Fit and is a useful performer who has run well here on several occasions without winning, finishing third on his most recent visit to Naas. He drops back to his optimum trip having last run over 7f and holds a solid record on soft ground with one win and three places from five starts. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Naas with an A/E of 0.74 from 272 runs while the jockey posts 6% with an A/E of 0.88 from 101 rides, both modest. Usually racing prominently, on or close to the lead, he carries an official rating of 104 from draw 6 and has placed without winning from seven runs at the track.
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4Thunderbear57/100
Thunderbear is rated 57 on KTB Fit and is a useful performer with a solid record at this trip, including three wins from 15 starts. He has won once from six runs at Naas and goes well on soft ground with a win and two places from three starts. The trainer holds an 11% strike rate at Naas from 18 runs while the jockey is operating at 7% from 60 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he carries an official rating of 92 from the inside draw and his recent form reads -60035.
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5Tango Flare53/100
Tango Flare is a useful performer who has shown strong form at this trip with five wins from 23 starts. He has been placed once from four runs at Naas and arrives in reasonable order judged on recent figures, though he remains unproven on soft ground.
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6Saint Agatha52/100
Saint Agatha is a fair 3-year-old who showed improved form when winning last time out over this trip on soft ground. She has a 1-from-1 record on this going and is lightly raced, with the trainer holding a solid 12% strike rate at Naas.
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7Staysound Susie49/100
Staysound Susie is a useful performer who has shown up well at this track on a couple of occasions, finishing placed twice from seven runs here. She has won on soft ground and at today's trip, though her recent form has been patchy and the yard has a modest strike rate at Naas.
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8La Brodeuse49/100
La Brodeuse is a useful performer who has been consistent this year without winning, finishing no worse than third in four of her last five starts. She handles soft ground well and the jockey maintains a solid 10% strike rate at Naas, though the trainer is yet to strike here from 14 attempts.
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9Luna Mia48/100
Luna Mia is a fair performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from three runs here. She has been below her best on her last three starts and failed to place on her only soft-ground run, with the jockey operating at a modest 4% strike rate at Naas.
KTB verdict
Two Stars looks the one to beat in a race where course form and soft-ground ability carry plenty of weight. He has won both starts at Naas, including a Listed success here last year, and his record on soft ground is already proven. The selection's late run-style should suit if the race develops as expected, though he must step back up in trip having looked better at shorter. His main dangers are Bamako Beach, who showed strong form at the track earlier this year and now tries headgear, and Big Gossey, who has run well here on several occasions and drops to his optimum trip. Thunderbear cannot be entirely dismissed either given his course win and proven record on the surface.
KTB Selection Two Stars
This is the narrative read of the 3:28 Naas. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Naas racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Naas results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Naas racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won a Listed race at Naas previously?
Two Stars won a Listed race at this track last year.
Which runners are proven on soft ground?
Two Stars, Big Gossey, Thunderbear, Saint Agatha, Staysound Susie and La Brodeuse all have winning or placed form on soft.
How many horses are held up in their run-style?
Six horses are usually held up: Two Stars, Bamako Beach, Thunderbear, Tango Flare, Saint Agatha, Staysound Susie and Luna Mia.
Which horse is trying first-time headgear?
Bamako Beach is wearing first-time headgear.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Naas in this field?
Henry de Bromhead has a 14% strike rate at Naas from 474 runs.
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