2:30 Perth
This Class 3 handicap steeplechase at Perth over 2m7f180y on good to soft ground brings together six runners, all rated within a narrow 11lb band. The KTB Fit scores identify a clear top four, headed by Thunder Rock on 68, with the remainder trailing some way behind on 45 and 42. A drop in class for four of the six adds an extra layer, while the uncontested pace shape is likely to play a significant part in how the race unfolds.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, and Golden Point is the only front-runner in the field. With the other five runners all held up, he should be allowed an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for the closers to bridge in the latter stages. The key question is whether the leader can dictate terms throughout or whether one of the patient runners, ideally suited by the good to soft ground, can produce a telling late effort.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Thunder Rock KTB Selection68/100
Thunder Rock is a high-class performer with a strong record on good to soft ground that includes six wins from ten starts. He steps up in trip today having won the only previous start at this distance, though his last run was over shorter. The Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen combination carries plenty of weight, with the trainer recording a 30% strike rate at Perth and an A/E of 1.19, while the jockey posts 31% and an A/E of 1.08. Both are operating from a position of strength at the track, and the horse makes his first appearance here. A drop in class looks suitable for this 10-year-old, who usually races held up and produces his effort late.
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2Major Fortune64/100
Major Fortune arrives as another high-class performer boasting a strong recent record of 81221 that includes two wins. He drops back from 3m1f to a trip where he has placed once in three starts while showing he handles good to soft ground. The Dan Skelton and Harry Skelton partnership is in form, the trainer showing a 33% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 1.06 and the jockey 29% with an A/E of 1. This is the horse's first run at the track. Usually held up, the 8-year-old is expected to come from off the pace in what looks a suitable contest.
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3Chasingouttheblues58/100
Chasingouttheblues is a high-class performer on his day with a solid recent record of 12115. He drops back from 4m to a trip he has won over and boasts a strong record on good to soft with three wins from six starts. The trainer holds a 20% strike rate at Perth with an A/E of 1.29, though the jockey operates at just 5% with an A/E of 0.58. A drop in class is likely to help this 7-year-old, who is another usually held up and producing his effort late. With no course form on record, the Perth factor will be an unknown.
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4Dubai Days56/100
Dubai Days is high-class on his day with strong ratings and Perth connections that include a second here last year. Now a 12-year-old who has been mixing hurdling and chasing, he steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 2m4½f and his only previous try at this distance brought no joy. The trainer and jockey both operate at modest strike rates around here, the yard on 6% with an A/E of 0.67 and the rider on 7% with an A/E of 0.68. A drop in class may help, though the trip looks far from ideal for this held-up performer.
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5I Wish You45/100
I Wish You is a high-class performer with strong ratings and a win at today's trip from four attempts. He has placed once from three runs at Perth but failed to win on good to soft ground in three starts. Both trainer and jockey operate at modest strike rates here.
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6Golden Point42/100
Golden Point is a smart performer who has won at this trip and shown he handles good to soft ground. He showed only modest course form here with a fourth on his sole visit and the yard's modest strike rate at Perth adds a note of caution. The jockey has a solid if unspectacular record at the track.
KTB verdict
Thunder Rock stands out as the KTB Selection. His high-class ability, excellent record on good to soft ground, and the positive trainer and jockey statistics at Perth make him the one to beat, especially as he steps up to a trip he has already won over. Major Fortune and Chasingouttheblues look the most obvious dangers, both high-class on their day with recent form that commands respect and solid trainer records at the track. Dubai Days has Perth placings in his favour but the marked step up in trip at the age of 12 tempers enthusiasm, while the two outsiders face stiff tasks on the KTB numbers.
KTB Selection Thunder Rock
This is the narrative read of the 2:30 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Perth results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Perth racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most favoured by the Perth trainer and jockey statistics?
Thunder Rock, with Olly Murphy on 30% strike rate at Perth (A/E 1.19) and Sean Bowen on 31% (A/E 1.08).
How does the pace shape influence the race?
With a lone leader of high confidence and Golden Point the only front-runner, the five held-up runners face the challenge of pegging back an uncontested lead on good to soft ground.
Which runner has the strongest record on good to soft ground?
Thunder Rock with six wins from ten starts on the surface.
Who is stepping up markedly in trip?
Dubai Days, whose last run was over 2m4½f and whose only previous attempt at this distance brought no joy.
Which horses are dropping in class?
Thunder Rock, Chasingouttheblues, Dubai Days and both I Wish You and Golden Point.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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