3:05 Perth
This Class 4 handicap hurdle at Perth over 2m47y on good to soft ground brings together nine runners, several of whom hold strong claims on recent form and course records. The KTB Fit ratings identify Tap Tap Shamie as the clear top horse on 72, ahead of Star of Guiting on 64, Double Oban on 59 and Marty McFly on 56, with the remainder of the field tightly bunched between 54 and 41. Trainer Olly Murphy holds a notable 30% strike rate at the track from 210 runs, while several horses step down in class and the pace shape points to a strong test that could suit those racing off the speed.
How the race shapes up
With a strong pace confidently predicted and at least two habitual front-runners declared, the race is set to be run at a searching gallop that may leave the leaders vulnerable late on. Tap Tap Shamie and She's Notjoeking are the two most likely to take the field along or race prominently, while the remaining seven are all hold-up types who will look to conserve energy early and pounce in the straight. The key question is whether the pace collapses as expected, which would hand the advantage to those coming from off the speed in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Tap Tap Shamie KTB Selection72/100
Tap Tap Shamie brings high-class ability to this race and has looked progressive in recent starts, winning last time out to go 2-3 in completed jumps runs. He has already shown he handles this trip and good-to-soft ground, with both trainer and jockey holding strong records at Perth. Not fully exposed after just three career runs. The six-year-old carries an official rating of 120, arrives with progressive recent form figures of /122-1, and is ridden by Sean Bowen whose 31% strike rate at Perth from 354 rides complements Olly Murphy's 30% record at the track from 210 runs. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is set to play a key role in the strong gallop that is anticipated.
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2Star of Guiting64/100
Star of Guiting is a smart performer who has won twice at today's trip and holds a solid record on good to soft ground with three wins from seven starts. He steps up in distance today having last run over shorter and now tries first-time headgear after a string of modest efforts. Trainer and jockey both hold established records at Perth with positive A/E figures. The five-year-old is dropping in class from an official rating of 119, with recent form of 1P58-7, and will be held up to produce his effort late in what is expected to be a strong pace. Ewan Whillans has a 10% strike rate at the track from 70 runs while Craig Nichol operates at 13% from 339 rides, and the first-time headgear is now added in the hope of sparking a revival.
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3Double Oban59/100
Double Oban is a smart performer who has won four times at this trip and looks well suited by good to soft ground. He has course experience but was only fifth here on his sole visit, and his recent form has been patchy. Trainer Olly Murphy has a strong 30% strike rate at Perth, though Kevin Brogan is operating at a low 4% here. The six-year-old is dropping in class off an official rating of 118, with form figures of 9215-5, and will be held up to come late in a race that could see the front-runners come back to him. He has one win from four starts on good to soft with two placings, though that fifth on his only previous run at Perth tempers expectations at the track.
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4Marty McFly56/100
Marty McFly is a smart performer who arrives in excellent order after four straight wins before a recent pull-up. He has already won over this trip and on this ground, and his record here reads one win from three runs. The trainer's small Perth sample prevents any firm read while Brian Hughes has a solid 16% strike-rate at the track from a large number of rides. The eight-year-old is dropping in class from an official rating of 112 with form of 1111P-, and his hold-up style will see him biding his time behind the expected strong pace. Four wins from ten starts on good to soft underline his effectiveness under these conditions, while his course success adds to his appeal.
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5Magnolia54/100
Magnolia is a smart performer who has been a model of consistency around here, finishing placed in all four Perth runs including two seconds last season. She has also won twice at this trip and remains competitive on good to soft ground even if she has yet to score on it. The yard know the track well and the booking of Thompson adds a useful 5 lb claim.
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6Matching Energy51/100
Matching Energy is a useful performer who won on good to soft at this trip on debut and has shown enough in stronger company since to suggest he remains competitive off his current mark. He drops back from two and a half miles which looks a sensible move, and the Perth figures for both trainer and jockey are modest. Lightly raced on this surface but the one run produced a win so the ground is not a worry.
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7Shooting50/100
Shooting is a smart performer on pedigree but only three runs to date and has shown very little. He finished ninth on debut then pulled up on next start so the bare form is poor. Trainer has a modest 6% strike-rate here while the claiming jockey is still seeking a first Perth winner from 15 rides.
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8Linalene43/100
Linalene is a smart performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning. She has run only once here when well beaten and is 0-2 on good to soft ground. Trainer and jockey both operate at modest strike rates at Perth.
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9She's Notjoeking41/100
She's Notjoeking is a useful performer with solid placed form at this trip and a clear course-and-distance win on her record. She has shown she handles good to soft ground and has already run respectably over this track, though the yard's modest strike rate here suggests she will need to improve on that fourth. Jockey Derek Fox also operates below average at Perth.
KTB verdict
Tap Tap Shamie stands out as the KTB Selection. He brings high-class ability, has looked progressive with a win last time out to make his completed jumps record read two from three, and remains not fully exposed after just three runs while already proving himself effective at the trip and on good-to-soft ground. Strong Perth records for both trainer and jockey further strengthen his position in a race where his front-running style should ensure he is prominent throughout. His main dangers are likely to be Star of Guiting, who has won twice at the trip and now tries first-time headgear while dropping in class, and Marty McFly, who arrives off the back of four straight wins before a recent pull-up and boasts a course victory plus an excellent record on this ground.
KTB Selection Tap Tap Shamie
This is the narrative read of the 3:05 Perth. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Perth racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Perth results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Perth racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class and trying first-time headgear?
Star of Guiting is dropping in class and now tries first-time headgear.
How many wins has Marty McFly recorded at Perth?
Marty McFly has one win from three runs at Perth.
What is Olly Murphy's strike rate at Perth?
Olly Murphy has a 30% strike rate at Perth from 210 runs.
Which two horses are the most likely front-runners?
Tap Tap Shamie and She's Notjoeking are the two horses whose run-style is to make the running or race on the pace.
Has Magnolia ever won at Perth?
Magnolia has been placed in all four runs at Perth but has no win at the track.
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