8:30 Dundalk (AW)
The 8:30 at Dundalk is a competitive Christmas Party Nights handicap over 1m2f150y on standard going, featuring an 11-runner field where several horses arrive in mixed form but with solid course records. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Final Voyage and Rock Of Claremont both on 55, with the next three all within a couple of points, suggesting a race that could be decided by how the strong pace unfolds and which hold-up performers are best placed to capitalise. Recent form is varied across the principals, with some stepping up in trip while others drop back, and the surface and track records will play a significant part.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners in the line-up, including Flame Of Forest and Wie Wunderbar, both of whom tend to make the running or race prominently. This should ensure a solid gallop that could stretch the field and lead to late collapse, playing into the hands of the numerous hold-up types who can deliver their efforts from off the pace. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate terms without overdoing it or if the race will fall apart late, allowing the patient riders on hold-up horses to pick up the pieces in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Final Voyage KTB Selection55/100
Final Voyage is a useful performer who has won once from 20 starts at this track and boasts a solid record on standard ground with two wins and 11 places from 30 runs. He steps up in trip today having won at this distance in the past though his recent form is mixed. The 8-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, which looks well suited to the expected strong pace that could collapse. Trainer J. P. Murtagh has an 11% strike rate at Dundalk from 659 runs while the jockey has only one ride here so far. From draw 9 he will look to come from off the pace, and his overall ability gives him every chance in a race where the KTB numbers rate him joint-top on 55.
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2Rock Of Claremont55/100
Rock Of Claremont is a fair performer who has shown some ability in three runs, finishing a respectable third here last time. The 3-year-old steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he could be involved in the strong early pace but may find it hard to sustain if it proves testing. Trainer A Oliver and jockey W. J. Lee both have solid records at Dundalk though the yard's strike rate is modest. With an OR of 83 and KTB Fit of 55 he is one of the leading players on the figures, and his placed effort on this surface adds to his credentials.
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3Quatre Bras54/100
Quatre Bras is a fair handicapper with a solid record here, winning three of nine starts at Dundalk. He has three wins from nine runs on standard ground and has won three times from seven starts at this trip, though he drops back from 1m4f today. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his style should be favoured if the strong pace collapses as expected. The trainer has an 11% strike rate from 265 runs at the track while the jockey is operating at 7% from 622 rides. From a good draw in 2 and with a KTB Fit of 54 he remains firmly in the mix on his course form.
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4Hygge53/100
Hygge is a fair performer who has won twice this year and showed useful form when landing a handicap at Leopardstown in June. The 4-year-old steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question, though the pedigree offers encouragement for the extra distance. Usually held up, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race where the strong gallop could suit those delivered late. Trainer Gordon Elliott has a modest 9% strike rate at Dundalk while jockey Colin Keane fares better with 16% from a big sample. Rated 87 with a KTB Fit of 53, he has the ability to feature if the trip proves within range.
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5Slieve Binnian52/100
Slieve Binnian is a fair performer who has won four times from eight starts at this track and also has a solid record on standard ground with four wins from eight runs. He has won twice at this trip from eight attempts and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition given his recent form of 697408. Usually held up and producing his effort late, his style aligns well with the expected pace shape that could favour those coming from behind. The trainer has a 10% strike rate from 1276 runs here while the jockey has a 12% strike rate from 522 rides at Dundalk. With a KTB Fit of 52 he cannot be ruled out in a race where his course record stands out.
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6Darkdeserthighway50/100
Darkdeserthighway is a modest performer who has won four times at this track from 18 runs and handles the standard surface well with four wins from 18 attempts. He steps up in trip today having been unsuccessful in three previous tries at this distance, and as a usual hold-up performer he could benefit if the strong pace collapses.
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7Retracement49/100
Retracement is a fair performer who has been out of form for most of this year and showed little spark when eighth here on his only previous visit to Dundalk. The trainer holds a solid 11% strike rate at the track from a large sample, yet this horse's recent efforts and lack of success at the trip or on standard ground leave him with plenty to find.
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8Flame Of Forest48/100
Flame Of Forest is a fair performer who has shown some ability on this surface but lacks a win in eight starts. He finished ninth on his only previous visit to Dundalk and has been well held in his last three outings overall, though his front-running style means he will be prominent early in what is expected to be a strong pace.
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9God Of Power47/100
God Of Power is a fair 3-year-old with consistent recent form including two placed efforts at this trip. He has shown some ability on this track but failed to win or place in two runs here and has not scored on standard going either, with his hold-up style likely to see him towards the rear.
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10Wie Wunderbar46/100
Wie Wunderbar is a modest performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and two placings from his last four starts. He has already won at today's trip yet remains unproven on standard ground, and his front-running tendencies will see him involved in the expected strong early pace.
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11Chapel Lane45/100
Chapel Lane is a fair 3-year-old who has shown enough in nine starts to win a race and place on several other occasions. He steps up in trip today having last run over 7f and is unproven on the standard surface at Dundalk, with his hold-up style set to see him towards the back in a strongly-run race.
KTB verdict
Final Voyage looks the one to beat as the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer with a good record on standard ground and at this track, and his hold-up run-style is well suited to the likely strong pace that could collapse late. His ability stands up well in this field and the KTB numbers put him right at the top. The main dangers are Rock Of Claremont, who showed promise with a placed effort here last time, and Quatre Bras, whose excellent course record cannot be ignored. Hygge and Slieve Binnian, both with hold-up styles and recent wins or course form, add further depth to what looks a competitive handicap.
KTB Selection Final Voyage
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:03 UTC, 16 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Final Voyage | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Rock Of Claremont | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Quatre Bras | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Hygge | 4/1 | BetTom |
| Slieve Binnian | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Darkdeserthighway | 40/1 | Bet365 |
| Retracement | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Flame Of Forest | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| God Of Power | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Wie Wunderbar | 11/2 | William Hill |
| Chapel Lane | 11/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 8:30 Dundalk (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Dundalk (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Dundalk (AW) results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Dundalk (AW) racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Flame Of Forest and Wie Wunderbar are the front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace, with Rock Of Claremont also prominent.
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
The strong pace with two or more habitual front-runners is likely to collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
Which horses have the strongest course records at Dundalk?
Quatre Bras has won three of nine starts here, Slieve Binnian has won four of eight, and Darkdeserthighway has won four of 18.
Which runners are stepping up in trip for this race?
Final Voyage, Rock Of Claremont, Hygge and Darkdeserthighway are all stepping up in trip today.
Which horses are wearing headgear for the first time?
Slieve Binnian is wearing first-time headgear.
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