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Trainer profile

Miss Natalia Lupini

545 runners in the last 5 seasons · 110 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 5 days ago 99% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2015→)
from 1 Jan 2022
71–545
Wins / Runs
13%
Strike rate
n=545
177 (33%)
Placed
1.25
Fair A/E
n=544 · 1.01 incl. margin
−26.33
£1 level stake
n=545 at SP · −4.8%
£1.39m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
12.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 110 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 13% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.25).

Deterministic profile computed from 545 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 22 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance 40.8% when favourite W. M. Lordan: 12.8% from 203 Sends off the favourite in 13% of races
The read

It is weakest at Leopardstown (4.8% over 42 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants struggle at 5.1% (n=79, Fair A/E 0.82). W. M. Lordan rides 37% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (12.8%, A/E 1.33) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (19.7%, n=66). 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the COLM QUINN BMW Mile Handicap at Galway (Jul 2025, £70,800). The stable star of the record: Blairmayne (IRE) — 8 wins from 63 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 13% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
12.3%−0.7
n=106 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −25.29
New recruits · first run for the yard
24%+11.0
n=25 · A/E 2.25 · £1 +17.50
Debutants · first career start
5.1%−7.9
n=79 · A/E 0.82 · £1 +0.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−13.0
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
12.5%−0.5
n=8 · A/E 1.03 · £1 +0.00
When favourite
40.8%
n=71 · A/E 1.62 · £1 +32.67
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
10.2%−2.8
n=59 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −18.25
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
8.7%−4.3
n=23 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −14.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 13% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With C&D winners 22% vs 13% · n=59
On last-time-out winners 22% vs 13% · n=59
With debutants 5.1% vs 13% · n=79
At Curragh 5.6% vs 13% · n=89
At Leopardstown 4.8% vs 13% · n=42
Off a 8-14-day break 19.7% vs 13% · n=66
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 542 71 13.1% −23.33
Hurdle 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 220 22 10% −50.41
Standard (AW) 153 26 17% +29.70
Soft 98 14 14.3% +1.33
Good to Soft 32 4 12.5% −13.67
Heavy 28 4 14.3% +19.50
Good to Firm 14 1 7.1% −12.78

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 149 26 17.4% +33.70
Curragh 89 5 5.6% −59.75
Naas 51 8 15.7% +42.25
Down Royal 44 6 13.6% −5.29
Leopardstown 42 2 4.8% −34.25
Cork 26 6 23.1% +2.85
Navan 25 0 0% −25.00
Fairyhouse 24 5 20.8% +5.83
Gowran Park 24 6 25% +28.00
Galway 21 5 23.8% +22.33
Limerick 10 2 20% +3.00
Roscommon 7 0 0% −7.00
Bellewstown 5 0 0% −5.00
Punchestown 5 0 0% −5.00
Sligo 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 23 2 8.7% −14.00
Class 2 4 0 0% −4.00
Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 83 31 37.3% 1.54 +27.92
2nd–3rd fav 134 23 17.2% 1.21 −2.25
4th–6th fav 153 6 3.9% 0.52 −87.00
7th+ in betting 175 11 6.3% 1.84 +35.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Dunum (IRE)from Patrick Eugene Turley 23 8 14 2 Aug 26
Dontspoilasale (IRE)then Adrian McGuinness 21 1 7 15 Aug 24
Bishopton (IRE)from Olly Murphy 19 3 7 9 Oct 26
Ohmali (IRE) 19 1 4 30 Sep 26
Alma Libre (FR)then A Oliver 16 1 6 19 Jul 24
Blairmayne (IRE) 14 2 4 11 May 24
Barnso (GB)then Alan King 13 2 8 17 Jun 25
Alba Chiara (IRE) 12 1 4 4 Sep 26
Nikki Swango (IRE)then Adrian McGuinness 12 1 2 11 Oct 24
Clonmacash (GB)then Adrian McGuinness 12 1 2 29 Jun 24
Dandyville (IRE)then M G Quinn 12 4 10 29 Nov 23
Akashaa (IRE) 11 0 2 29 Sep 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 110 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 13 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John C McConnell (4); 47 had their first archived run for this yard.

27 have since run for another yard, most often for Adrian McGuinness (4); 33 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
2 from 10
Only 10 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
31257247114131415278
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderW. M. Lordan
37% of all rides
12.8% SR · A/E 1.33
RiderRWSR£1
W. M. Lordan 203 26 12.8% +32.30
W J Lee 79 14 17.7% −11.62
Seamie Heffernan 63 5 7.9% −13.37
Leigh Roche 31 3 9.7% −18.15
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2015→
86
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£1.71m
Prize money
2023
Best season · 16 wins
Dunum (IRE) — COLM QUINN BMW Mile Handicap (Premier Handicap) Galway · Jul 2025
£70,800
Dunum (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Ahonoora Handicap Galway (IRE) · Aug 2026
£65,999
Dunum (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF 'Ahonoora' Handicap (Premier Handicap) Galway · Aug 2023
£64,900
Notable horses
Blairmayne (IRE) Dunum (IRE) Dandyville (IRE) Bishopton (IRE) Summer Island (USA) Cousin Shay (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Ivawood (IRE) 34.8% · 8–23
Progeny have won 8.9% of 1,409 runs since 2008 (122 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.9% from 118. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.9% from 180. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.4% from 168.
Cotai Glory (GB) 36.4% · 8–22
Progeny have won 11.5% of 3,923 runs since 2008 (389 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 14.7% from 1,398. Weakest on Soft going: 7.1% from 421.
Kodiac (GB) 4.8% · 1–21
Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,541 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.
Kuroshio (AUS) 4.8% · 1–21
Progeny have won 7.4% of 1,300 runs since 2008 (118 horses). Weakest on Good going: 3.8% from 288.
Belardo (IRE) 10% · 2–20
Progeny have won 10.2% of 3,706 runs since 2008 (280 horses).
Invincible Spirit (IRE) 15% · 3–20
Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,818 runs since 2008 (1,573 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.8% from 843.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 838 · newest first

The latest 50 of 838 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 13 June 2015 to 17 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
17 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Oath Of Honor (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor Irish Stallion Farms EBF Laidlaw Cup Fillies Maiden7f · Good · 13 ran 12th 66/1
16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Flame Of Forest (IRE)J: W. M. Lordan Christmas Party Nights At Dundalk Book Now Handicap10.5f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 25/1
15 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Celestial Order (IRE)J: Chris Hayes Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Soft · 15 ran 7th 28/1
11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Scolyer (USA)J: Ben Coen Tifrums Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden6f · Soft · 7 ran 6th 9/1
10 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Adversity (GB)J: Chris Hayes Irish EBF Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Soft · 18 ran 3rd 25/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Bishopton (IRE)J: Kian McNally BAR 1 Betting 'First For Football' Handicap8f · Standard · 13 ran 13th 5/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Hellorhighwater (GB)J: Ben Coen BAR 1 Betting 'First For Football' Handicap8f · Standard · 13 ran 1st 100/30
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Thaloria (GB)J: Kian McNally Irishinjuredjockeys.com Handicap (Div II)7f · Standard · 14 ran 6th 33/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Pauseathought (GB)J: Chris Hayes Irish EBF Median Sires Series (C & G) Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 10th 28/1
09 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) The Pipeman (IRE)J: J M Sheridan Irish EBF Median Sires Series (C & G) Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 1st 8/1
02 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Xerling (IRE)J: W. J. Lee BAR 1 Casino 'Slot Games & Live Casino' Race5f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 20/1
30 Sep 26 Bellewstown (IRE) Ohmali (IRE)J: Colin Keane BOYLE Sports Handicap8f · Soft To Heavy · 14 ran 10th 11/2J
29 Sep 26 Cork (IRE) Akashaa (IRE)J: Kian McNally WTW Willis Handicap6f · Soft · 19 ran 14th 13/2
28 Sep 26 Down Royal (IRE) Thaloria (GB)J: Kian McNally Molson Coors Beverage Company Handicap7f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 4th 50/1
26 Sep 26 Curragh (IRE) Positive Thinking (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Grá Chocolates Maiden10f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 18th 14/1
25 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Flame Of Forest (IRE)J: W. M. Lordan Bookings Open For Christmas Parties At Dundalk Stadium Handicap10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 9th 33/1
21 Sep 26 Fairyhouse (IRE) Perfect Base (IRE)J: W. M. Lordan Fairyhouse Return Of The Jumps On October 10th Handicap6f · Good · 17 ran 13th 50/1
19 Sep 26 Gowran Park (IRE) Colpe Cross (GB)J: Seamie Heffernan SIS Maiden9.5f · Yielding To Soft · 10 ran 6th 12/1
18 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Thaloria (GB)J: Kian McNally Friday Night Lights Are Back At Dundalk Handicap7f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 18/1
18 Sep 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) The Pipeman (IRE)J: W. M. Lordan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden6f · Standard · 12 ran 5th 3/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Miss Natalia Lupini's strike rate?
Miss Natalia Lupini has won 71 of 545 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 13% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Miss Natalia Lupini do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 26 wins from 149 runners (17.4%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Miss Natalia Lupini?
W. M. Lordan, with 203 runners since 2022 — 37% of the total. That pairing has won 26 (12.8%).
Is Miss Natalia Lupini in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 10 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Miss Natalia Lupini's Fair A/E?
1.25, from 544 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).