1:00 Catterick
This EBF Restricted Maiden Stakes for two-year-olds in Bands C and D with no more than three previous runs brings a field of eight to Catterick over 7f on good to soft ground. It is a Class 4 contest that looks short on depth and experience, with the KTB Fit scores topping out at 57 for the selection and the remainder of the field clustered between 50 and 42. Most of the runners are unproven on the surface and have no previous experience of the track, making trainer and jockey course statistics particularly relevant.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy is likely to pay. With the majority of the field, including the top four in the KTB Fit order, tending to be held up and coming with their effort late, the race could develop into a sprint for the line from around halfway. The key question is whether any horse can overcome a patient ride and still pick up strongly enough in a race that may not truly test stamina over this trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Lord Percy KTB Selection57/100
Lord Percy has the highest KTB Fit rating at 57 and is the selection. A 2-year-old with form figures of 65 he has shown enough to suggest he can improve past that level. The Ed Dunlop yard has a 25% strike rate at Catterick with an A/E of 1.08 from 84 runs and pairs here with Edward Greatrex who boasts a 40% strike rate at the track and an A/E of 1.78 from 15 rides. Although unproven on good to soft and with no course form, the combination of yard and jockey course stats is a significant plus. Usually held up, he will need to produce his effort late in what is expected to be a steadily-run race.
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2Northern Exposure50/100
Northern Exposure arrives with a KTB Fit of 50. This 2-year-old has form figures of 88 but is dropping in class which may help him show more. The Patrick Owens stable has a 0% strike rate at Catterick from one run while Jack Nicholls, claiming 3lb, has a 29% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.87 from 21 rides. Unproven on good to soft and without course form, he will be held up and come with his effort late in a race that looks to favour those who can time their run. The class drop is the main positive in his favour.
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3Red Demon50/100
Red Demon is rated 50 on the KTB Fit scale. By Sottsass he represents a sire with a 12% overall win rate from 667 runners. Donald McCain has a 17% strike rate at Catterick with an A/E of 0.94 from 589 runs and teams up with Paul Mulrennan whose record at the track reads 11% with an A/E of 0.9 from 665 rides. The pair have a 6/64 record together with an A/E of 0.90. He has no course win on record and is unproven on good to soft. In a steadily-run race his ability to quicken from a patient position could be important.
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4Queens Bandit49/100
Queens Bandit carries an official rating of 65 and has the fourth-highest KTB Fit at 49. His form figures of 32 show placed form and he has the benefit of the inside draw. Trained by Charlie Clover who has a 0% strike rate at Catterick from one run, he is ridden by Jason Hart who has a 15% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.96 from 520 rides. Unproven on good to soft and without course form, he is likely to be prominent or handy in a race that may not be strongly run. The official figure suggests he has a bit to find but his placed effort gives him a foothold in the contest.
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5Lion's Den46/100
Lion's Den has a KTB Fit of 46 and form figures of 6. Michael Dods has a 6/43 record with Mark Winn and a trainer strike rate of 11% at Catterick. Usually held up, he is unproven on good to soft and has no course form.
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6Magnanimous Grecia44/100
Magnanimous Grecia is rated 44 on the KTB Fit scale. Tracy Waggott and David Allan have a 0/11 record together and the yard has a modest 6% strike rate at Catterick. Unproven on good to soft and with no course form, he has plenty to find.
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7Shaqra Queen43/100
Shaqra Queen has an official rating of 58 and a KTB Fit of 43. Her form figures read 645. K. R. Burke has a strong 16% strike rate at Catterick and pairs with Sam James. Usually held up, she remains unproven on good to soft and has no course form.
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8She Is Mighty42/100
She Is Mighty has a KTB Fit of 42 and a single run form figure of 7. Steph Hollinshead has a 0% strike rate at Catterick from nine runs while Joanna Mason has an 11% strike rate at the track. Unproven on good to soft and without course form, she has the widest draw.
KTB verdict
Lord Percy tops the KTB Fit ratings and is taken to land this steadily-run maiden. The selection brings the best combination of recent form and powerful course stats for both trainer and jockey, and his held-up style should suit if the race develops as expected. Northern Exposure and Red Demon are the most obvious dangers on KTB Fit, with Queens Bandit able to utilise his inside draw and placed form. The race lacks depth and several runners are unproven on the ground, which further strengthens the case for the top-rated horse.
KTB Selection Lord Percy
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 17 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Lord Percy | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Northern Exposure | 100/1 | William Hill |
| Red Demon | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Queens Bandit | 8/11 | Bet365 |
| Lion's Den | 10/3 | Bet365 |
| Magnanimous Grecia | 100/1 | William Hill |
| Shaqra Queen | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| She Is Mighty | 50/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 1:00 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Catterick results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Catterick racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Lord Percy the KTB Selection?
Lord Percy has the highest KTB Fit rating of 57/100 and benefits from strong trainer and jockey course strike rates at Catterick.
How is the race likely to be run?
It lacks a leader so should be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which horses are unproven on good to soft ground?
Lord Percy, Northern Exposure, Queens Bandit, Lion's Den, Magnanimous Grecia, Shaqra Queen and She Is Mighty are all unproven on good to soft.
Who has the strongest course trainer record?
Ed Dunlop has a 25% strike rate at Catterick with an A/E of 1.08 from 84 runs.
Which jockey has the best Catterick record in the field?
Edward Greatrex has a 40% strike rate at Catterick with an A/E of 1.78 from 15 rides.
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