4:15 Leopardstown
The 4:15 at Leopardstown is the Mongey Communications Killavullan Stakes, a Group 3 for two-year-olds over seven furlongs on good ground. A field of seven runners lines up, with KTB Fit Scores separating a smart top weight from several useful performers and a couple of less-exposed types. The KTB numbers point to a race where course and trainer form at Leopardstown, as well as proven ability at the trip, will be key factors in a steadily-run affair.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay. Most of the field, including the top four in the KTB Fit rankings, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question is whether any horse can quicken decisively off a modest gallop or whether the prominent Capability Brown can use his run-style to steal an advantage from the rail draw.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Trean KTB Selection65/100
Trean arrives with a KTB Fit Score of 65 and an official rating of 105. A smart performer, he boasts a solid recent record that includes a win at this trip from four attempts over the distance. The yard maintains a healthy 25% strike-rate at Leopardstown from 81 runs with an A/E of 1.08, and the trainer-jockey combination shows 187 winners from 684 rides at 27% with an A/E of 1.03 and a healthy level-stakes profit. Connections look strong at the track even if the jockey's own 8% strike-rate from 860 rides carries an A/E of 0.79. He is placed on two of three starts on good ground without winning, has no course form on record, usually races held up and produces his effort late, and his market read is SP in a field of seven.
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2King Of Cloughan57/100
King Of Cloughan is rated 57 on the KTB Fit scale with an official rating of 102. A useful performer, he has shown his best form at this track, finishing second here on his penultimate start, and he has been placed at today's trip. His recent form figures of 421286 read respectably for a race of this nature. Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a solid 12% strike-rate at Leopardstown from 1089 runs with an A/E of 0.89, while the trainer-jockey partnership stands at 48 winners from 272 rides at 18% with an A/E of 1.04 and level-stakes profit. The jockey himself is 7% from 182 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.78. He is placed on his only start on good ground without winning, has course form of one run for a second, usually races held up and produces his effort late, and his market read is SP in a field of seven.
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3Switching Sides51/100
Switching Sides carries a KTB Fit Score of 51 and an official rating of 93. A useful performer, he showed smart form when winning on good ground over 6.5f at the Curragh before finishing a solid fourth in a stronger race last time out. He steps up to 7f for the first time today, which asks a fresh question though he has already tried the trip once without success. The trainer has a 10% strike-rate at Leopardstown from 1845 runs with an A/E of 0.84, and the jockey records an 11% strike-rate from 1021 rides with an A/E of 0.93. Trainer and jockey both therefore have solid established records at the track. He has one win and two places from two starts on good ground, has no course form on record, usually races held up and produces his effort late, and his market read is SP in a field of seven.
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4Nouveau Grey48/100
Nouveau Grey is rated 48 on the KTB Fit scale. He won his only start over this trip on debut. The yard has a modest 5% strike-rate at Leopardstown from 110 runs with an A/E of 0.7, while the jockey is 4% from 160 rides here with an A/E of 0.53. The trainer-jockey partnership stands at 12 winners from 105 rides at 11% with an A/E of 1.42 and level-stakes profit. With just one run on the board, data confidence remains low and the going suitability cannot be judged from such a small sample as he has no runs on good ground. He typically settles in midfield though with limited evidence, has no course form on record, and his market read is SP in a field of seven.
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5Capability Brown47/100
Capability Brown has a KTB Fit Score of 47 and an official rating of 95. A useful colt, he has shown steady progress in three runs, finishing a solid third last time. He drops back to 7f having been placed at the trip on his only previous attempt, though the shorter distance now asks a fresh question after his last run over 1m1f. Aidan O'Brien has a 20% strike-rate at Leopardstown from nearly 3000 runs with an A/E of 0.88, while the trainer-jockey partnership stands at 235 winners from 1557 rides at 15% with an A/E of 0.84. The jockey himself is 8% from 1263 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.73. He has one run on good with no win or place, has no course form on record, usually races prominently though with limited evidence, and his market read is SP in a field of seven.
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6Bengal Tiger44/100
Bengal Tiger is rated 44 on the KTB Fit scale. He has shown steady improvement in three starts, finishing second last time out after an initial win. The step up to 7f is an unknown that could suit or expose him. Aidan O'Brien has a solid 20% strike-rate at Leopardstown from nearly 3000 runs with an A/E of 0.88, while the trainer-jockey partnership stands at 29 winners from 208 rides at 14% with an A/E of 0.85. The jockey records a 9% strike-rate from 77 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.88. He has no runs on good ground so is unproven on the surface, has no course form on record, usually races held up and produces his effort late, and his market read is SP in a field of seven.
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7Fighting Tears41/100
Fighting Tears has a KTB Fit Score of 41 and an official rating of 85. A fair performer, he showed useful speed when winning on debut over this trip on good ground but has failed to build on it in two subsequent runs. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Leopardstown, the trainer at 5% from 351 runs with an A/E of 0.62 and the jockey at 7% from 395 rides with an A/E of 0.7. The trainer-jockey partnership stands at 8 winners from 134 rides at 6% with an A/E of 0.59. This looks a tough ask back up in class though trip and ground look fine on what he has shown so far. He has one win and one place from two starts on good, has no course form on record, usually races held up though with limited evidence, and his market read is SP in a field of seven.
KTB verdict
Trean is the KTB Selection. He brings smart form, a win at this trip, and the benefit of a yard that strikes at 25% at Leopardstown from a decent sample, with the overall trainer-jockey record also in credit. The held-up run-style should be suited to what is expected to be a steadily-run race, and he looks to have the best blend of proven ability and course connections. His main dangers are King Of Cloughan, who has shown his best form at this track and is respected on recent form, and Switching Sides, who brings smart prior form though the step up to 7f poses a question. Nouveau Grey remains an interesting unknown after a winning debut but lacks the depth of experience of the principals.
KTB Selection Trean
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:10 UTC, 17 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Trean | 5/4 | Bet365 |
| King Of Cloughan | 9/1 | William Hill |
| Switching Sides | 40/1 | BetTom |
| Nouveau Grey | 9/1 | Bet Victor |
| Capability Brown | 11/4 | William Hill |
| Bengal Tiger | 5/1 | William Hill |
| Fighting Tears | 80/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 4:15 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leopardstown results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Leopardstown racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest strike-rate combination at Leopardstown between trainer and jockey?
Trean, whose trainer-jockey partnership shows 27% from 684 rides with an A/E of 1.03.
How many of the seven runners are usually held up according to their run-style?
Five runners are described as usually held up and producing their effort late.
Which horse is stepping up to 7f for the first time today?
Switching Sides, who has already tried the trip once without success.
Which runner is dropping back in trip after racing over 1m1f last time?
Capability Brown, having been placed at 7f on his only previous attempt at the distance.
Which horse won on debut over this trip on good ground?
Fighting Tears, though he has failed to build on that in two subsequent runs.
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