3:40 Leopardstown
This 7f maiden at Leopardstown on good ground forms part of the Irish Stallion Farms EBF programme and has attracted a field of 13 two-year-old fillies. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals separated by only five points, underlining the open nature of the contest. Snowing brings the highest official rating of 98 and the most substantial racecourse experience, while several well-bred newcomers from powerful yards add depth and uncertainty.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated, with two or more habitual front-runners likely to take the race along. Snowing and Ita Florence both tend to make the running or race prominently, which could set up a stiff test. The pace shape suggests the race may collapse late, favouring hold-up horses, and the key question is whether the prominent runners can sustain their effort or if something from off the pace will pick up the pieces.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Sweet Disposition53/100
Sweet Disposition makes her racecourse debut with no public form to assess. The pedigree and sales background provide the main clues to her potential, but overall data confidence is low. Trainer Farrell operates at a 6% strike rate at Leopardstown from 35 runs with an A/E of 1.32, while jockey Cleary has a similar 6% strike rate from a much larger sample of 674 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.85. She is by Night Of Thunder, a sire with a 16% overall win rate, yet this remains a modest profile on first start.
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2Snowing KTB Selection53/100
Snowing is a useful performer who has shown consistent form, finishing in the first three in four of her six starts including a placed effort over today's trip. She ran well when third on her only visit to Leopardstown and now steps up from 6f. Aidan O'Brien has a strong 20% strike rate at the track from 2999 runs, though jockey Lordan's record is a more modest 8% from 1263 rides. She has been placed on two of three starts on good ground and holds an official rating of 98, the highest in the field.
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3Sensational Filly49/100
Sensational Filly finished third on her debut over this trip at Leopardstown and looks to have some ability. The yard has a solid 25% strike rate at the track from 81 runs with an A/E of 1.08, while W J Lee is a regular rider here though his own strike rate reads a more modest 8% from 860 rides with an A/E of 0.79. She has no experience on good ground, which leaves her unproven on the surface. With only one run in the book and low data confidence this remains a tentative profile that needs to improve to take a strong maiden.
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4Ria's Angel49/100
Ria's Angel is a debutant with limited public form to go on. The pedigree and sales background offer the only real clues, while the yard's modest 4% strike rate at Leopardstown from 46 runs with an A/E of 0.54 suggests this is no barnstormer on first start. Jockey Reese Holohan has shown a respectable 13% strike rate from 15 rides at the track with an A/E of 1.53. Overall data confidence remains low and this is very much an unknown quantity.
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5Ita Florence48/100
Ita Florence showed some promise when second on debut over 6f and backed that up with another solid effort when sixth in a stronger race last time. She steps up to 7f today, which is an open question for a lightly-raced two-year-old. Bolger has a 14% strike rate at Leopardstown from 3186 runs with an A/E of 0.94, while Heffernan sits on 10% from 1521 rides with an A/E of 0.75. She tends to make the running or race on the pace and has no experience on good ground.
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6Taranga48/100
Taranga is a debutant with no racecourse experience. The Weld yard has a solid 17% strike rate at Leopardstown from 3173 runs with an A/E of 0.92, though jockey Hayes operates at a more modest 8% from 1221 rides with an A/E of 0.79. Pedigree and sales information is limited so any judgement on ability remains tentative.
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7Velvet Dusk46/100
Velvet Dusk is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown from 1845 runs with an A/E of 0.84. The Shane Foley booking adds some confidence given his solid 11% record at the track from 1021 rides with an A/E of 0.93. With no racecourse form and low data confidence the rest is guesswork based on pedigree and sales background.
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8Anymore45/100
Anymore is a newcomer from the Aidan O'Brien yard which has a solid 20% strike rate from 2999 runs at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.88. Jack Cleary takes the ride with a 9% strike rate here from 77 rides with an A/E of 0.88. With no racecourse form and only low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
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9Lady Letita45/100
Lady Letita is a newcomer from the powerful Mullins yard which has a solid 17% strike rate at Leopardstown from 2150 runs with an A/E of 0.86. The jockey has a more modest 7% record at the track from 182 rides with an A/E of 0.78. With no racecourse form available and low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on her sales and pedigree background.
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10Fahrana44/100
Fahrana has only one run to her name so the form picture remains thin. She steps up from 6f to 7f today which asks a fresh question of her stamina. Both trainer and jockey have modest records at Leopardstown with 9% and 7% strike rates respectively, and the small-sample data confidence is low.
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11Miss Hong Kong44/100
Miss Hong Kong showed promise when second on debut over this trip and should improve with experience. The yard has a 10% strike rate at Leopardstown from 157 runs with an A/E of 0.77, while Ryan is operating at 6% from 280 rides with an A/E of 0.63. With only one run on the board the form has to be treated with caution. She usually races prominently.
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12Acquilyx42/100
Acquilyx has one run on the board over this trip and showed little. The yard's modest 3% strike rate at Leopardstown from 276 runs with an A/E of 0.54 offers no encouragement, while jockey Nathan Crosse fares only marginally better with a 5% record here from 169 rides with an A/E of 0.74. Everything is tentative given the low data confidence and small sample.
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13Oath Of Honor39/100
Oath Of Honor is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate from 60 runs at Leopardstown with an A/E of 0.31 and the jockey's 4% from 160 rides with an A/E of 0.53 suggest limited success for the stable and rider at this track. Low data confidence means the assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background.
KTB verdict
Snowing stands out as the KTB Selection. She has shown consistent form, finishing in the first three on four of six starts, and brings the highest official rating of 98 along with placed form over today's trip and at this track. Aidan O'Brien's 20% strike rate at Leopardstown from a huge sample adds further strength to her claims. The main dangers are Sensational Filly, who showed ability when third on debut here, and the promising debutante Sweet Disposition, though both have less experience than the selection. Ita Florence is another who could feature if she handles the step up to 7f.
KTB Selection Snowing
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 17 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Sweet Disposition | 50/1 | BetTom |
| Snowing | 5/2 | BetTom |
| Sensational Filly | 11/8 | Bet365 |
| Ria's Angel | 100/1 | Bet Victor |
| Ita Florence | 9/1 | BetTom |
| Taranga | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Velvet Dusk | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Anymore | 11/1 | BetTom |
| Lady Letita | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Fahrana | 66/1 | William Hill |
| Miss Hong Kong | 15/2 | Bet365 |
| Acquilyx | 100/1 | Bet Victor |
| Oath Of Honor | 40/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 3:40 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leopardstown results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Leopardstown racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Snowing and Ita Florence both tend to make the running or race on the pace.
What does the pace shape suggest for late-race positioning?
The strong pace could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
How many times has Snowing finished in the first three?
Snowing has finished in the first three in four of her six starts.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Leopardstown among those represented?
P. Twomey has a 25% strike rate at Leopardstown from 81 runs.
Has Sensational Filly run on good ground before?
Sensational Filly has no runs on good ground and is unproven on the surface.
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