3:07 Hexham
This Class 4 handicap hurdle at Hexham over 2m4f28y on good ground serves as a qualifier for the Go North Cab On Target Series. A field of nine runners lines up with no obvious leader, and the KTB Fit Scores point to Conquer The Breeze as the clear top pick on 72 while the remainder sit between 60 and 38. Most of the field are held-up types, which aligns with a steadily-run, tactical race where positioning and timing will be key.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape indicating a lack of any natural leader, the race is expected to be run at a steady tempo in which being handy should pay dividends. The majority of runners, including the top four in the KTB Fit order, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late, so the key question is which horse can time its run best off what is likely to be a modest gallop. Those able to track the pace without using up too much energy early may hold the advantage as the race unfolds on this sharp track.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Conquer The Breeze KTB Selection72/100
Conquer The Breeze arrives with a KTB Fit Score of 72 and is the clear selection. A smart performer, he has won four times at Hexham from just nine runs and looks well suited by the return to this track. He has struck the frame on good ground six times from 13 starts, though he steps up in trip today having been unsuccessful in three previous attempts at this distance. Trainer Adam Nicol posts a 24% strike rate at Hexham with an A/E of 1.25 from 25 runs while Ryan Mania, who has a 13% strike rate at the track from 312 rides, takes the mount. Recent form of 114112 underlines his competitiveness at this level, and he drops in class having shown strong course form.
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2Well Educated60/100
Well Educated carries a KTB Fit Score of 60. A useful performer, he has won four times here from 18 runs and also has a solid record at today's trip. He has been consistent this season with four seconds from his last six starts, though he was well held on his latest outing. Trainer George Bewley has a 10% strike rate at Hexham from 312 runs while Jonathon Bewley, who is 0-9 at the track, rides. With a record of five wins from 30 starts on good ground and 14 places, he should be thereabouts again if the steady pace suits his usual held-up style.
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3Codger's Rock60/100
Codger's Rock is rated 60 on the KTB Fit Score. A useful performer who has shown enough in ten runs to suggest he can be competitive at this level, he steps up in trip today having already placed once over this distance without winning. His record on good ground reads two placed efforts from five starts. Trainer Cian Collins has a 33% strike rate at Hexham from a small sample of three runs while Sean Bowen, boasting a 30% strike rate at the track from 40 rides, is an interesting booking. Usually held up, he will look to produce his effort late in what is likely to be a tactical affair.
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4Kool Raoul53/100
Kool Raoul has a KTB Fit Score of 53. A useful performer with a solid Hexham record of two places from three runs, he has shown he handles good ground. He has been placed twice at this trip from five attempts and remains competitive at this level on recent ratings. Trainer Lucinda Russell holds a 17% strike rate at Hexham from 53 runs while Derek Fox, who has a 12% strike rate at the track from 336 rides, takes the ride. Stepping up in class and usually held up, he will need to time his run well if he is to add to his placed efforts at the track.
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5Forest Blaze52/100
Forest Blaze has a KTB Fit Score of 52. A useful performer who has won twice at this track from six runs and also has two wins at today's trip, he drops back in distance after his last run over 2m5½f. He has placed once from four starts on good ground without winning. Trainer Mark Walford has a 17% strike rate at Hexham from 236 runs.
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6Les's Legacy48/100
Les's Legacy is rated 48 on the KTB Fit Score. A useful performer who has won four times at Hexham and also has two wins at this trip, his recent form has been patchy with a string of modest efforts though he did run creditably when third here last time. The trainer's modest 9% strike rate at the track from 292 runs adds a note of caution.
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7The Jeweller's Pet47/100
The Jeweller's Pet has a KTB Fit Score of 47. A useful performer who has shown consistent form this season, finishing placed on three of his last four starts, he has winning form at today's trip yet has never placed on good ground and was only fourth when he tried this track. The yard's modest 4% strike-rate at Hexham from 81 runs adds another negative.
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8Lester Mail47/100
Lester Mail carries a KTB Fit Score of 47. A useful performer who has shown consistent form without winning lately, finishing fourth on all three starts this year including a recent effort over 2m5f, he drops back in trip today which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also tried. Trainer N. W. Alexander holds a solid 12% strike rate at Hexham from 221 runs.
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9Mickthesoldier38/100
Mickthesoldier is rated 38 on the KTB Fit Score. A fair performer who has shown bits of form this year but remains winless after 11 career starts, he has run twice here without placing and drops back in trip today having been well held over further last time. The yard posts a 10% strike rate from 216 runs at Hexham.
KTB verdict
Conquer The Breeze stands out with a KTB Fit Score of 72 and is taken as the selection. A smart performer with four wins from nine runs at Hexham, he returns to a track that clearly suits him and drops in class having shown strong recent form. The steadily-run race should suit his held-up style if he can produce his effort at the right time. Main dangers are Well Educated, who has a strong course record and consistent placed form this season, and Codger's Rock, who has shown enough to be competitive at this level with Sean Bowen aboard. Kool Raoul cannot be entirely dismissed given his solid Hexham placed form.
KTB Selection Conquer The Breeze
This is the narrative read of the 3:07 Hexham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Hexham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Hexham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Hexham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest record at Hexham?
Conquer The Breeze has won four times at Hexham from nine runs.
How does the lack of a leader affect the race?
It points to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Hexham among those with runners?
Cian Collins has a 33% strike rate at Hexham from three runs.
Which horse is dropping back in trip after a run over further?
Forest Blaze drops back in distance after his last run over 2m5½f.
Who is the only horse in the field wearing new headgear?
Lester Mail is wearing first-time headgear.
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