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Trainer profile

Adam Nicol

470 runners in the last 5 seasons · 52 individual horses
As at 19 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 5 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2020→)
from 1 Jan 2022
49–470
Wins / Runs
10.4%
Strike rate
n=470
131 (28%)
Placed
0.95
Fair A/E
n=466 · 0.82 incl. margin
−163.61
£1 level stake
n=470 at SP · −34.8%
£601k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
15.1%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 90 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 10% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.95). With a claiming rider up the record reads 12% (105 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 470 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 19 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Mar–May 30% when favourite Ryan Mania: 18.4% from 76 Claiming riders: 12.4% Sends off the favourite in 13% of races
The read

New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 5.1% (n=39, Fair A/E 0.57). Ryan Mania rides 16% of the entries and beats the yard's average (18.4% vs 10.4%, A/E 1.13) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Good to Soft going (19.4%, n=103) and over 2m5f – 3m (18.9%, n=53). The record reads poorly on Soft going — 3.9% over 76 runners, 6.5pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the tote Summer World Pool Queen's Cup at Musselburgh (Apr 2023, £51,540). The stable star of the record: Wise Eagle (IRE) — 13 wins from 46 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Mar–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
8.1%−2.3
n=86 · A/E 0.92 · £1 +4.60
New recruits · first run for the yard
5.1%−5.3
n=39 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −23.90
Debutants · first career start
0%−10.4
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
14.3%+3.9
n=14 · A/E 1.65 · £1 +5.20
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
10.8%+0.4
n=37 · A/E 1.07 · £1 +4.00
When favourite
30%
n=60 · A/E 0.94 · £1 −12.51
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
12.4%+2.0
n=105 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −9.24
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
14.3%+3.9
n=7 · A/E 2.17 · £1 +2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Joshua Thompson 25.6% vs 10.4% · n=43
On last-time-out winners 22.9% vs 10.4% · n=48
On Good to Soft going 19.4% vs 10.4% · n=103
With Ryan Mania 18.4% vs 10.4% · n=76
Over 2m5f – 3m 18.9% vs 10.4% · n=53
On Soft going 3.9% vs 10.4% · n=76
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 257 29 11.3% −72.46
Flat 182 15 8.2% −75.42
Chase 25 5 20% −9.73
NH Flat 6 0 0% −6.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 165 20 12.1% −24.25
Good to Soft 103 20 19.4% +1.81
Soft 76 3 3.9% −59.25
Standard (AW) 75 4 5.3% −38.42
Good to Firm 31 1 3.2% −29.00
Heavy 20 1 5% −14.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Musselburgh 67 10 14.9% −14.67
Newcastle (AW) 63 4 6.3% −26.42
Sedgefield 43 4 9.3% −24.55
Kelso 35 5 14.3% −3.17
Perth 33 5 15.2% +24.62
Newcastle 32 4 12.5% −7.30
Catterick 30 1 3.3% −28.75
Hexham 22 6 27.3% −3.35
Ayr 22 0 0% −22.00
Hamilton 18 1 5.6% +1.00
Wetherby 17 1 5.9% −8.00
Carlisle 15 1 6.7% −6.50
Pontefract 11 4 36.4% +7.75
Southwell (AW) 10 0 0% −10.00
Redcar 8 1 12.5% −6.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 194 20 10.3% −35.94
Class 6 115 9 7.8% −51.17
Class 4 113 14 12.4% −67.38
Class 2 25 4 16% +2.00
Class 3 16 1 6.3% −13.12
Class 1 7 1 14.3% +2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 66 18 27.3% 0.89 −18.51
2nd–3rd fav 101 21 20.8% 1.28 +8.40
4th–6th fav 135 6 4.4% 0.58 −74.50
7th+ in betting 168 4 2.4% 0.92 −79.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Trailblazer (GB)from William Muir & Chris Grassick 39 2 13 8 Nov 25
Wise Eagle (IRE)from Tom Clover 35 7 14 24 May 26
Lady Phoebe (IRE) 33 2 7 30 Sep 26
National Question (IRE)from J S Bolger 30 5 10 13 Jun 26
Quercus Robur (GB)from Richard Fahey 25 5 12 20 Mar 26
Purple Gown (IRE)from J S Bolger 25 1 7 28 Nov 25
Foshan (IRE)from Harry Eustace 21 0 1 13 May 25
Agilulf (GB)from P De Chevigny 20 0 2 16 Feb 25
Benefit Ben (IRE)from Sandy Thomson 16 3 5 2 Apr 26
Tracker Issue (IRE)from J S Bolger 15 0 2 29 Sep 26
Snowrocco (IRE) 12 2 4 31 Mar 26
Top Flight Century (FR)from Sir Mark Prescott Bt · then David Thompson 12 1 4 31 Oct 25
All 52 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 52 horses listed, 41 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Nigel Hawke (9) and J S Bolger (7); 11 had their first archived run for this yard.

2 have since run for another yard; 50 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 4
Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
117141617914838714
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderRyan Mania
16% of all rides
18.4% SR · A/E 1.13
RiderRWSR£1
Ryan Mania 76 14 18.4% −7.23
Joshua Thompson 43 11 25.6% +36.76
Cam Hardie 30 4 13.3% +12.75
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2020→
55
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£647k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 18 wins
Wise Eagle (IRE) — tote Summer World Pool Queen's Cup (Heritage Handicap) Musselburgh · Apr 2023 · Class 2
£51,540
Minella Study (GB) — Paul Ferguson's Jumpers To Follow Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (Listed) (GBB Race) Wetherby · Oct 2025 · Listed
£22,780
Speiriuil (IRE) — BetWright Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Kelso · Mar 2026 · Class 2
£20,812
Notable horses
Wise Eagle (IRE) National Question (IRE) Quercus Robur (GB) Feach Amach (IRE) Conquer The Breeze (IRE) Benefit Ben (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Fracas (IRE) 26.7% · 12–45
Progeny have won 9.7% of 794 runs since 2008 (56 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 13% from 100. Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 14.3% from 119. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.7% from 106.
Teofilo (IRE) 2.3% · 1–44
Progeny have won 12.5% of 10,070 runs since 2008 (907 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7% from 625.
Dark Angel (IRE) 4.8% · 2–42
Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,868 runs since 2008 (1,594 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.
Free Eagle (IRE) 20% · 7–35
Progeny have won 10.6% of 2,397 runs since 2008 (189 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.2% from 129.
Phoenix Of Spain (IRE) 6.1% · 2–33
Progeny have won 13.3% of 1,320 runs since 2008 (140 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9.8% from 133.
Camelot (GB) 20% · 5–25
Progeny have won 11.7% of 7,670 runs since 2008 (752 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 19 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 498 · newest first

The latest 50 of 498 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 9 December 2020 to 14 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
14 Oct 26 Wetherby Fine Point (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Watch Race Replays On Racing TV Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran F 3/1
14 Oct 26 Wetherby Evaluation (GB)J: Ryan Mania Over The Rainbow Alison Stretton Birthday Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 3rd 9/2
14 Oct 26 Wetherby Watcha Snoop (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Visit racingtv.com Juvenile Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 4th 11/1
08 Oct 26 Ayr Fair Isle Sioux (GB)J: Rhys Elliott Heverlee Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Heavy · 10 ran 9th 125/1
04 Oct 26 Kelso Evaluation (GB)J: Ryan Mania Percy's Racing Dream Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier)Class 4 · 21f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 2nd 7/2J
30 Sep 26 Catterick Lady Phoebe (IRE)J: Cam Hardie Watch All Races Live On Racingtv Handicap StakesClass 6 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 3rd 100/30
29 Sep 26 Sedgefield Tracker Issue (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Sedgefield Racecourse For Outdoor Events Handicap Hurdle Race (Go North Cab On Target Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 20f · Good · 8 ran 5th 50/1
29 Sep 26 Sedgefield Watcha Snoop (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Roxyfet Sports Lounge For Private Hire Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 11/1
26 Sep 26 Haydock Evaluation (GB)J: Shane Gray William Hill Daily Winnings Boost Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 14f · Heavy · 9 ran 8th 100/1
19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Mr Black Diamond (GB)J: Billy Garritty Eric Hussain 58th Birthday Celebration Race Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 6 ran 6th 150/1
16 Sep 26 Kelso Conquer The Breeze (IRE)J: Ryan Mania In Memory Of Rossie Maitland-Carew Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 17f · Good To Firm · 3 ran 2nd 1/1F
16 Sep 26 Kelso Fine Point (IRE)J: Joshua Thompson RacingTV Proudly Supports Teenage Cancer Trust Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 18f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 2nd 6/4F
14 Sep 26 Sedgefield Tracker Issue (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Paxtons No1 Caseih Dealer Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 10 ran 9th 28/1
09 Sep 26 Redcar Mr Black Diamond (GB)J: Cam Hardie Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Good · 9 ran 9th 80/1
03 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Fair Isle Sioux (GB)J: Billy Garritty Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 50/1
31 Aug 26 Cartmel Watcha Snoop (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Sticky Toffee Pudding Juvenile Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 2nd 12/1
28 Aug 26 Sedgefield Fine Point (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Warm-Flo Hot To Trot Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 17f · Good · 6 ran 4th 4/1
28 Aug 26 Sedgefield Tracker Issue (IRE)J: Ryan Mania Darlington Ra & Ellie Wake Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 13/2
22 Aug 26 Redcar Fair Isle Sioux (GB)J: Jack Garritty Celebrate National Racehorse Week Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Good · 16 ran 16th 66/1
21 Aug 26 Hamilton Evaluation (GB)J: David Allan Scullion Law Lanark Silver Bell Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 12f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 13th 125/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Adam Nicol's strike rate?
Adam Nicol has won 49 of 470 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 10.4% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Adam Nicol do best at?
Perth by strike rate: 5 wins from 33 runners (15.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Adam Nicol?
Ryan Mania, with 76 runners since 2022 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (18.4%).
Is Adam Nicol in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Adam Nicol's Fair A/E?
0.95, from 466 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 19 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).