3:49 Leicester
This Class 5 handicap over the minimum trip at Leicester on heavy ground brings together a compact field of seven modest performers. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Ingleby Archie heading the numbers on 67, followed by Wodao on 61, Smart Vision on 58 and Veydari on 54. Recent form is mixed across the board, several horses drop back to five furlongs, and the heavy surface adds another layer of uncertainty given limited or mixed experience on it for most of the runners.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, featuring a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types. Smart Vision tends to make the running, while Ingleby Archie, Veydari, Fenlander and Edgewater Drive are all prominent racers who usually race handily or close to the lead. This sets up a fair test at the minimum trip on heavy ground, and the key question is which of the pace influences can sustain their effort in genuinely-run conditions while coping with the testing surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ingleby Archie KTB Selection67/100
Ingleby Archie is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning. He drops back to 5f today where he has won three times from 13 starts though his only try on heavy ground brought no reward. The five-year-old is drawn in stall six and his recent form reads 358723. Adrian Nicholls has a 30% strike rate at Leicester from 27 runs while Jack Garritty boasts a 17% strike rate at the track from 52 rides, though the trainer-jockey combination is 2 from 38 overall. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he is the KTB Selection.
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2Wodao61/100
Wodao is a modest performer who arrives in decent form having won two of his last three starts. He drops back to 5f today where he has won twice from eight attempts and holds a solid record on heavy ground with two placed efforts from three starts. The six-year-old steps up in class from a mark of 69 with form figures of 969611. Steph Hollinshead has a 5% strike rate at Leicester from 92 runs which sits in line with their 6% at other tracks while David Probert operates at 12% here from 320 rides. He typically settles in midfield.
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3Smart Vision58/100
Smart Vision is a modest performer who won on his only previous visit to Leicester and has a solid record on heavy ground with one win and two places from four attempts. He has also won at this trip though his recent form is patchy and he has been off since July with figures of 944487. The five-year-old is drawn in stall three and will go forward as a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace. Jessica Macey operates at an 11% strike rate here from 36 runs which matches their overall record while Finley Marsh has a 12% strike rate at Leicester from 41 rides.
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4Veydari54/100
Veydari is a modest performer who arrives in decent nick on recent form with figures of 47-234. He drops back to 5f today having failed to win in four previous attempts at the trip and has no experience of heavy ground. The four-year-old is rated 70 and drawn in stall seven. Julie Camacho has a 14% strike rate at Leicester from 70 runs while Dylan Hogan operates at 8% here from 87 rides, with the pair combining at 2 from 25 overall. He usually races handily on or close to the lead.
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5Fenlander50/100
Fenlander is a modest performer who has won twice at Leicester from seven runs and has also won at this trip. Recent form has been patchy but he did finish third in his last two starts with figures of 560331. The five-year-old is prominent, usually racing handily on or close to the lead, though the trainer is 0 from 22 at the track and the horse has shown little on heavy ground.
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6Woolisle50/100
Woolisle is a modest performer who has shown enough on heavy ground to stay competitive, placing once from two starts. He has won at this trip but was only sixth of seven when tried here on his sole visit to Leicester. The three-year-old is rated 74 with form of 21-248 and typically settles in midfield.
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7Edgewater Drive41/100
Edgewater Drive is a limited performer who has been out of form this year with two poor runs. He is placed on his only visit to Leicester and has won twice at this trip but shown nothing on heavy ground in two attempts. The five-year-old is prominent, usually racing handily on or close to the lead, from a career-low mark of 59.
KTB verdict
Ingleby Archie is the KTB Selection. He has been consistent enough this year without winning yet drops back to a trip where he has won three times from 13 starts, and both trainer and jockey show above-average strike rates at Leicester. The prominent run-style looks well suited to the expected genuinely-run pace shape on heavy ground. Main dangers are Wodao, who arrives in decent form with a solid record on the surface, and Smart Vision, who won on his only previous visit to the track and has a good record on heavy going. Veydari cannot be entirely ruled out either on recent form.
KTB Selection Ingleby Archie
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:25am, 26 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Ingleby Archie | 6/1 | William Hill, 12:22am |
| Wodao | 7/4 | Bet Victor, 12:22am |
| Smart Vision | 4/1 | Bet365, 12:22am |
| Veydari | 15/2 | Bet365, 12:22am |
| Fenlander | 3/1 | William Hill, 12:22am |
| Woolisle | 16/1 | Bet365, 12:22am |
| Edgewater Drive | 20/1 | Bet365, 12:22am |
This is the narrative read of the 3:49 Leicester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leicester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Leicester results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Leicester racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record at Leicester?
Smart Vision won on his only previous visit to Leicester. Fenlander has won twice at the track from seven runs while Edgewater Drive was placed on his sole visit.
How many horses in the field have previous experience of heavy ground?
Wodao has been placed twice from three starts on heavy, Smart Vision has one win and two places from four attempts on heavy, Woolisle has placed once from two starts on heavy, and both Ingleby Archie, Fenlander and Edgewater Drive have one or two runs on heavy without placing.
Who are the prominent runners likely to contest the early lead?
Smart Vision tends to make the running, while Ingleby Archie, Veydari, Fenlander and Edgewater Drive are all prominent types who usually race handily on or close to the lead.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Leicester in this race?
Adrian Nicholls has a 30% strike rate at Leicester from 27 runs. Julie Camacho is on 14%, Jessica Macey and Heather Main are both on 11%, while the others are at 5% or 0%.
At what trip has Ingleby Archie been successful before?
Ingleby Archie drops back to 5f today where he has won three times from 13 starts.
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