What is Shay Farmer's strike rate?

Shay Farmer has won 28 of 344 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Shay Farmer do best at?

Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 1 wins from 54 rides (1.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Shay Farmer ride most for?

Brian Ellison, with 78 rides since 2022 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (9%).

Is Shay Farmer in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 4 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Shay Farmer's Fair A/E?

0.90, from 343 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Shay Farmer

344 rides in the last 5 seasons · 198 individual horses

As at 7 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 3 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2024→)

from 1 Jan 2022

28–344

Wins / Runs

8.1%

Strike rate

n=344

86 (25%)

Placed

0.90

Fair A/E

n=343 · 0.76 incl. margin

−70.56

£1 level stake

n=344 at SP · −20.5%

£338k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

7.9%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 70 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.90). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 14% (35 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 344 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 7 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Aug Brian Ellison: 9% from 78 LTO winners: 14.3%

The read

It is weakest at Newcastle (AW) (1.9% over 54 rides) — the largest sample in the record, and the widest gap. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 14.3% (n=35, Fair A/E 1.10), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 5.1% (n=39, Fair A/E 1.03). Brian Ellison supplies 23% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (9%, A/E 0.86). The rider also reads well on Good to Firm going (21.1%, n=57). The record reads poorly over 1m – 1m1f — 1.7% over 60 rides, 6.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider over 1m2f – 1m4f: Fair A/E 0.38 across 68 rides (2.9% strike, −53.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. Seasonally, the rider fires Jun–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.1% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

7.6%−0.5

n=198 · A/E 0.91 · £1 +10.00

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

14.3%+6.2

n=35 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −7.50

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

5.1%−3.0

n=39 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −26.50

When favourite

21.1%

n=19 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −8.39

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

7.8%−0.3

n=322 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −70.81

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.4%−2.7

n=56 · A/E 0.86 · £1 −16.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Good to Firm going 21.1% vs 8.1% · n=57

Over 1m – 1m1f 1.7% vs 8.1% · n=60

At Newcastle (AW) 1.9% vs 8.1% · n=54

On last-time-out winners 14.3% vs 8.1% · n=35

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 2.9% vs 8.1% · n=68

On Good going 3.7% vs 8.1% · n=108

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 108 4 3.7% −73.55

Standard (AW) 96 5 5.2% −62.50

Good to Firm 57 12 21.1% +70.83

Good to Soft 39 5 12.8% +31.41

Soft 32 2 6.3% −24.75

Heavy 12 0 0% −12.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 54 1 1.9% −48.50

Ayr 26 3 11.5% +5.50

Catterick 26 0 0% −26.00

Hamilton 22 1 4.5% −18.75

Southwell (AW) 19 2 10.5% −5.50

Musselburgh 19 2 10.5% +35.75

Beverley 19 4 21.1% +34.83

Doncaster 18 2 11.1% −8.50

York 16 2 12.5% +10.50

Redcar 12 1 8.3% −8.25

Wolverhampton (AW) 12 0 0% −12.00

Chester 11 1 9.1% −5.50

Thirsk 11 0 0% −11.00

Carlisle 10 1 10% +19.00

Haydock 10 0 0% −10.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 145 12 8.3% −16.17

Class 5 120 9 7.5% −68.84

Class 4 54 6 11.1% +31.95

Class 2 17 0 0% −17.00

Class 3 8 1 12.5% −0.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 24 4 16.7% 0.60 −13.39

2nd–3rd fav 72 14 19.4% 1.21 +0.33

4th–6th fav 104 5 4.8% 0.62 −48.50

7th+ in betting 144 5 3.5% 1.02 −9.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Naturalia (GB) 25 1 7 23 Oct 26

Abduction (FR) 8 1 1 26 Apr 26

Tolstoy (IRE) 8 2 3 8 Nov 25

Bulldog Spirit (IRE) 6 1 2 12 May 26

Fletchers Dream (GB) 6 2 2 1 Nov 25

Archduke Ferdinand (IRE) 5 1 2 23 Oct 26

Penelope's Sister (IRE) 5 0 0 8 Oct 26

Northerner (IRE) 5 0 1 19 Dec 25

Mattice (GB) 5 1 2 18 Sep 25

Sophiesticate (IRE) 4 1 2 1 Oct 26

Lir Speciale (IRE) 4 0 2 6 Sep 26

Bust A Moon (GB) 4 0 1 1 Jun 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 198 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 4

Only 4 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

0006111914103400

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardBrian Ellison

23% of all rides
9% SR · A/E 0.86

TrainerRWSR£1

Brian Ellison 78 7 9% −29.89

Seb Spencer 35 2 5.7% −26.75

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2024→

Archived wins

£338k

Prize money

2025

Best season · 13 wins

Tolstoy (IRE) — William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Handicap York · Jul 2024 · Class 3

£15,462

Tolstoy (IRE) — Andy Thornton Hospitality Furniture Apprentice Handicap York · Jun 2024 · Class 4

£10,468

Abduction (FR) — Oktoberfest Season Finale On 20th September Classified Claiming Stakes Chester · Aug 2025 · Class 4

£10,308

Notable horses

Tolstoy (IRE) Fletchers Dream (GB) Captain Potter (GB) Naturalia (GB) Abduction (FR) Bulldog Spirit (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Sea The Moon (GER) 3.8% · 1–26

Progeny have won 12% of 4,586 runs since 2018 (504 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 15% from 814.

Acclamation (GB) 20% · 2–10

Progeny have won 10% of 19,714 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.

Advertise (GB) 20% · 2–10

Progeny have won 9.8% of 1,564 runs since 2023 (153 horses).

Dandy Man (IRE) 0% · 0–9

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,983 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Kingman (GB) 22.2% · 2–9

Progeny have won 14.6% of 7,529 runs since 2018 (778 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11% from 970. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 9% from 122.

War Command (USA) 11.1% · 1–9

Progeny have won 9.7% of 2,278 runs since 2018 (200 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.6% from 285.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 344 · newest first

The latest 50 of 344 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 8 June 2024 to 4 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Mythical Composer (GB)T: Clive Cox Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 11 ran 3rd 2/1F

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Caragio (IRE)T: Adam Kirby Prestige Vehicles Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 2nd 9/2

26 Oct 26 Leicester Fenlander (GB)T: Olly Williams Jumping's Back At Leicester Tuesday 17th November Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 7 ran 1st 3/1

26 Oct 26 Leicester Muhib (GB)T: Olly Williams Fireworks Festival Here Saturday 7th November Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Soft · 16 ran 10th 10/1

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Naturalia (GB)T: Donald Whillans William Hill Keep Your Raceday Positive Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Heavy · 18 ran 3rd 25/1

23 Oct 26 Doncaster Archduke Ferdinand (IRE)T: Seb Spencer William Hill Price Boosts Every Day Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 4 · 6f · Heavy · 11 ran 7th 16/1

21 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Caragio (IRE)T: Adam Kirby Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap Stakes (London Sprint Series Qualifier)Class 5 · 6f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 1st 4/1

17 Oct 26 Catterick Bollin Neil (GB)T: Tim Easterby Go Racing In Yorkshire Future Stars Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 14f · Good · 10 ran 9th 11/1

14 Oct 26 Nottingham Gunalt Wavelength (GB)T: Michael & David Easterby Conference And Events At Nottingham Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 8.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 4th 12/1

12 Oct 26 Musselburgh Whiskey Kisses (IRE)T: R. Mike Smith Watch On Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 9th 15/2

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Star Noir (GB)T: Michael & David Easterby Pilsner To The Post Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 2nd 9/2

10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Top Lad (GB)T: Michael & David Easterby Pepsi Max Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 125/1

09 Oct 26 York Diligent Resdev (GB)T: Michael & David Easterby Pj Staffing Group Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 11th 17/2

08 Oct 26 Ayr Penelope's Sister (IRE)T: Jim Goldie Outcider Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Heavy · 13 ran 5th 5/1

08 Oct 26 Ayr Naturalia (GB)T: Donald Whillans Stella Artois Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Heavy · 12 ran 4th 15/2

06 Oct 26 Leicester Soca Star (IRE)T: Seb Spencer Willpower Group Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 5th 11/1

03 Oct 26 Redcar Naturalia (GB)T: Donald Whillans Prohibition Bar Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 10f · Good · 9 ran 4th 8/1

02 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Lamlash Bay (GB)T: Michael & David Easterby Franklin Hodge Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 10 ran 6th 7/2

01 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Sophiesticate (IRE)T: R. Mike Smith Follow @attheraces On Instagram Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12.5f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 80/1

29 Sep 26 Ayr Penelope's Sister (IRE)T: Jim Goldie Christmas Party Day Dancing @Ayr Racecourse Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Heavy · 8 ran 4th 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 9 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 4 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 1, 1 did not run) · fastest on KTB Speed in 3 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · to 4 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Shay Farmer's strike rate?: Shay Farmer has won 28 of 344 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 8.1% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Shay Farmer do best at?: Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 1 wins from 54 rides (1.9%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Shay Farmer ride most for?: Brian Ellison, with 78 rides since 2022 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 7 (9%).
Is Shay Farmer in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 4 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Shay Farmer's Fair A/E?: 0.90, from 343 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.