What is Adrian Nicholls's strike rate?

Adrian Nicholls has won 67 of 750 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.9% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Adrian Nicholls do best at?

Hamilton by strike rate: 10 wins from 46 runners (21.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Adrian Nicholls?

Barry McHugh, with 131 runners since 2022 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (7.6%).

Is Adrian Nicholls in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Adrian Nicholls's Fair A/E?

0.93, from 744 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Adrian Nicholls

750 runners in the last 5 seasons · 96 individual horses

As at 24 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 8 days ago 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2022

67–750

Wins / Runs

8.9%

Strike rate

n=750

197 (26%)

Placed

0.93

Fair A/E

n=744 · 0.79 incl. margin

−269.92

£1 level stake

n=750 at SP · −36.0%

£841k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

8.9%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 150 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.93). With a claiming rider up the record reads 14% (228 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 750 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 24 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires May–Jun 30.2% when favourite Barry McHugh: 7.6% from 131 Claiming riders: 13.6% Sends off the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Hamilton (21.7%, n=46), clear of the yard's 8.9% baseline. It is weakest at Southwell (AW) (0% over 40 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Runners with a claiming rider up have been a positive signal at 13.6% (n=228, Fair A/E 1.15), but debutants struggle at 1.8% (n=56, Fair A/E 0.46). Barry McHugh rides 17% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.6%, A/E 0.80). The yard also reads well at trips under 6f (14%, n=293). The record reads poorly over 1m2f – 1m4f — 0% over 32 runners, 8.9pts below the baseline. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Simpex Express 'Dash' Handicap at Epsom Downs (Jun 2022, £50,960). The stable star of the record: Hurt You Never (IRE) — 15 wins from 74 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 8.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

8.5%−0.4

n=94 · A/E 1.12 · £1 −11.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

3.7%−5.2

n=27 · A/E 0.53 · £1 −24.50

Debutants · first career start

1.8%−7.1

n=56 · A/E 0.46 · £1 −41.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

13.3%+4.4

n=30 · A/E 1.63 · £1 +6.88

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

5%−3.9

n=20 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −14.50

When favourite

30.2%

n=53 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −7.99

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

13.6%+4.7

n=228 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −27.88

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

3.1%−5.8

n=32 · A/E 0.51 · £1 −27.80

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 8.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Hamilton 21.7% vs 8.9% · n=46

On last-time-out winners 17.2% vs 8.9% · n=64

At Southwell (AW) 0% vs 8.9% · n=40

Over 1m2f – 1m4f 0% vs 8.9% · n=32

At trips under 6f 14% vs 8.9% · n=293

With debutants 1.8% vs 8.9% · n=56

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 228 26 11.4% −39.96

Good to Firm 178 24 13.5% −31.54

Standard (AW) 153 7 4.6% −60.17

Good to Soft 89 6 6.7% −57.87

Soft 84 3 3.6% −66.88

Heavy 18 1 5.6% −13.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 92 5 5.4% −10.50

Thirsk 68 4 5.9% −39.00

Doncaster 57 3 5.3% −40.62

Ripon 56 3 5.4% −28.38

Redcar 55 3 5.5% −21.00

Beverley 46 7 15.2% −7.12

Hamilton 46 10 21.7% −7.61

Southwell (AW) 40 0 0% −40.00

Catterick 33 4 12.1% −16.87

Carlisle 30 3 10% +15.50

Nottingham 30 3 10% −19.50

Haydock 25 1 4% −23.00

York 23 1 4.3% −8.00

Pontefract 20 1 5% −13.50

Leicester 17 3 17.6% −2.27

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 301 25 8.3% −138.56

Class 6 212 27 12.7% −30.32

Class 4 134 8 6% −48.62

Class 2 45 3 6.7% −23.50

Class 1 32 1 3.1% −27.80

Class 3 24 3 12.5% +0.88

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 68 18 26.5% 0.95 −13.16

2nd–3rd fav 151 24 15.9% 0.98 −37.76

4th–6th fav 255 19 7.5% 0.96 −64.00

7th+ in betting 276 6 2.2% 0.69 −155.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Hurt You Never (IRE) 66 15 27 15 Sep 26

Thornaby Pearl (GB)from Jason Ward 46 7 15 21 Sep 26

Abate (GB)from Roger Charlton · then George Baker 40 5 14 9 May 25

Tees George (GB) 36 3 15 19 Sep 26

Tees Spirit (GB)from Jason Ward 35 8 11 3 Oct 26

Ingleby Archie (IRE) 34 5 16 16 Oct 26

Tees Aggregates (IRE) 30 4 7 16 Oct 26

Burj Malinka (IRE)from Eddie & Patrick Harty 30 4 10 20 Jun 24

Due Consideration (GB) 19 1 9 3 Oct 24

Saaheq (GB)from Amanda Perrett 19 2 8 17 Jul 24

Tees Douge (FR) 18 0 4 24 Aug 24

King's Crown (IRE)then Michael Dods 17 1 5 9 Oct 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 96 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 20 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Jason Ward (2) and Tim Easterby (2); 40 had their first archived run for this yard.

20 have since run for another yard, most often for Colin Teague (2) and Kieran P Cotter (2); 40 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 4

Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

545615169710200

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderBarry McHugh

17% of all rides
7.6% SR · A/E 0.80

RiderRWSR£1

Barry McHugh 131 10 7.6% −71.30

Connor Murtagh 122 10 8.2% −45.87

Mia Nicholls 103 14 13.6% +2.89

Jack Nicholls 76 10 13.2% −23.18

Harrison Shaw 74 5 6.8% −27.00

Paddy Mathers 56 5 8.9% −10.50

Jack Garritty 37 2 5.4% −25.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

113

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.25m

Prize money

2023

Best season · 20 wins

Tees Spirit (GB) — Simpex Express 'Dash' Handicap (Heritage) Epsom Downs · Jun 2022 · Class 2

£50,960

Mo Celita (IRE) — Prix Club Hipico Santiago - Prix Moonlight Cloud () (3yo) (Straight Course) (Turf) Deauville (FR) · Aug 2021 · Listed

£24,554

Tees Spirit (GB) — Abergwaun Stakes (Listed) Tipperary · Aug 2022 · Listed

£22,125

Notable horses

Hurt You Never (IRE) Abate (GB) Thornaby Pearl (GB) Tees Spirit (GB) Mo Celita (IRE) Ingleby Archie (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dandy Man (IRE) 22.1% · 15–68

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,931 runs since 2008 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

Pearl Secret (GB) 15.2% · 7–46

Progeny have won 9.6% of 894 runs since 2008 (73 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13% from 131. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16.1% from 305. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.6% from 337.

Bated Breath (GB) 12.5% · 5–40

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,139 runs since 2008 (670 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 7.7% from 847.

Outstrip (GB) 8.3% · 3–36

Progeny have won 8.8% of 3,275 runs since 2008 (239 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 631. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.7% from 263.

Swiss Spirit (GB) 22.9% · 8–35

Progeny have won 9.5% of 3,646 runs since 2008 (243 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 4.5% from 244. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.7% from 136.

James Garfield (IRE) 14.7% · 5–34

Progeny have won 9% of 723 runs since 2008 (64 horses). Strongest on Good going: 13.1% from 183.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 24 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,222 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,222 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 11 August 2017 to 16 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

16 Oct 26 Redcar Thornaby Annie (IRE)J: Jack Garritty racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 18 ran 6th 20/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Ingleby Archie (IRE)J: Jack Garritty Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 3rd 15/8F

16 Oct 26 Redcar Tees Aggregates (IRE)J: Jack Garritty Sam Hall Memorial Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good · 10 ran 8th 12/1

16 Oct 26 Redcar Luna Lacy (IRE)J: Jack Garritty Market Cross Jewellers Nursery Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 7/2

08 Oct 26 Ayr Scheffler (IRE)J: Connor Beasley Outcider Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Heavy · 13 ran 13th 50/1

03 Oct 26 Redcar Tees Spirit (GB)J: Jack Garritty Watch Race Replays On Racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Good · 13 ran 13th 80/1

01 Oct 26 Nottingham Ingleby Archie (IRE)J: Jack Garritty Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 15 ran 2nd 8/1

29 Sep 26 Ayr Luna Lacy (IRE)J: Jack Garritty Weddings At Western House Hotel Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 6f · Heavy · 6 ran 4th 10/1

26 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Tees Spirit (GB)J: Jack Garritty Celebrate With Sponsorship At Southwell Racecourse Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 5f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 66/1

23 Sep 26 Redcar Tees Aggregates (IRE)J: Jack Garritty Racingtv/freetrial Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good · 6 ran 3rd 17/2

21 Sep 26 Hamilton Thornaby Pearl (GB)J: Jake Dickson Heineken Low & No Bar Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 6 ran 6th 10/1

19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Tees George (GB)J: Oliver Carmichael Get The Inside Track With Raceday-ready.com Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 5/1

17 Sep 26 Pontefract Ingleby Archie (IRE)J: Matthew Lloyd Slater Go Racing In Yorkshire Future Stars Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 12 ran 7th 14/1

15 Sep 26 Redcar Hurt You Never (IRE)J: Jack Nicholls Watch Racing TV In Stunning HD Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Good · 13 ran 1st 16/1

14 Sep 26 Thirsk Thornaby Annie (IRE)J: Jack Garritty decronhorsecare.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 8th 15/2

12 Sep 26 Musselburgh Luna Lacy (IRE)J: Jack Garritty Ebf Restricted Maiden Stakes (for Horses In Bands C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 9 ran 5th 33/1

03 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Hurt You Never (IRE)J: Jack Nicholls Follow @attheraces On X Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 22/1

02 Sep 26 Hamilton Scheffler (IRE)J: Connor Beasley #cleanstay At Hampton By Hilton Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8.5f · Soft · 10 ran 3rd 150/1

01 Sep 26 Ripon Thornaby Annie (IRE)J: Jack Nicholls attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 6th 22/1

31 Aug 26 Ripon Thornaby Pearl (GB)J: Oliver Carmichael Book Online At Ripon-races.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Soft · 9 ran 2nd 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Adrian Nicholls's strike rate?: Adrian Nicholls has won 67 of 750 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 8.9% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Adrian Nicholls do best at?: Hamilton by strike rate: 10 wins from 46 runners (21.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Adrian Nicholls?: Barry McHugh, with 131 runners since 2022 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (7.6%).
Is Adrian Nicholls in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Adrian Nicholls's Fair A/E?: 0.93, from 744 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.