1:46 Nottingham
This Class 3 EBF Stallions Golden Horn Maiden Stakes for colts and geldings over 1m0f75y at Nottingham on heavy ground features a field of just six juveniles. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 55 and 44, reflecting a race where experience, pedigree and yard strength will matter. Silent Force heads the KTB rankings on the back of two solid placed efforts and the highest official rating in the line-up.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is described as muddling and tactical with low confidence. There is no obvious front-runner, which should suit horses ridden close to the pace. With several runners having prominent run-styles, including Silent Force, Fulcrum and Fort McHenry, the key question is which one can secure the best position without using up too much energy in the heavy conditions.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Silent Force KTB Selection55/100
Silent Force has the best recent form in the race, finishing third then second in two starts, and he carries the highest official rating of 83. Andrew Balding's 12% strike rate at Nottingham from 230 runs is solid, while Rob Hornby has a 15% strike rate at the track from 197 rides. The half-brother to Listed winner Golden Story comes from a dam that has produced four winners from four runners to race, giving him a strong family line. Usually prominent, he races handily on or close to the lead with medium confidence in that assessment. He is unproven on heavy ground and has no course form, yet he tops the KTB Fit ratings at 55 and is the clear selection.
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2Fulcrum51/100
Fulcrum showed ability when finishing fourth on debut and now drops in class. The John & Thady Gosden yard has a strong 22% strike rate with 239 wins from 1110 runs, and their 21% strike rate at Nottingham from 75 runs adds further appeal. Robert Havlin has an 11% strike rate at the track from 407 rides. Half-brother to Pelean, he comes from a dam that has had one winner from two runners to race. Usually prominent with limited evidence and low confidence in the assessment, he is unproven on heavy ground and has one previous run at Nottingham where he finished fourth without winning or placing. He sits second on KTB Fit at 51.
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3Noble Mariner50/100
Noble Mariner represents the powerful William Haggas yard, which has a 19% strike rate at Nottingham from 393 runs, and pairs with Cieren Fallon who has an 18% strike rate at the track from 156 rides. By Australia, a sire with an 11% overall win rate, he is half-brother to Thankfully and comes from a dam that has produced two winners from four runners to race. He has no course win on record and no specific going or run-style details supplied. Rated 50 on KTB Fit, he brings strong yard and jockey figures into a race where connections will hope his pedigree translates quickly on heavy ground.
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4Leo Phelps49/100
Leo Phelps is in the care of Owen Burrows, whose 24% strike rate at Nottingham from 58 runs is a notable positive, and he teams up with Callum Rodriguez who has a 14% strike rate at the track from 76 rides. The pair hold a strong trainer-jockey record of 26%. By Zarak, a sire with a 15% overall win rate, he has no course win on record. He sits fourth in the KTB Fit order on 49 and will need to show his pedigree to good effect in these testing conditions, with the Burrows yard's local record giving him a solid chance to feature.
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5Bantry Bay47/100
Bantry Bay is another from the William Haggas yard, which has a 19% strike rate at Nottingham. By New Bay, a sire with a 14% overall win rate, he is from a dam that has had one other runner which did not win. Harry Davies rides with a 9% strike rate at the track from 58 rides. Rated 47 on KTB Fit, he has no course win on record.
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6Fort McHenry44/100
Fort McHenry has one piece of form, finishing sixth on debut. Usually prominent with limited evidence and low confidence, he is unproven on heavy ground and has no course form on record. Trained by Charlie Fellowes, who has a 14% strike rate at Nottingham from 101 runs, he is partnered by Kaiya Fraser who has a 25% strike rate at the track from 24 rides. The yard's trainer-jockey record stands at 9% and he is rated 44 on KTB Fit.
KTB verdict
Silent Force stands out as the KTB Selection. He brings the best recent form having been placed twice, holds the highest official rating of 83, and has a strong family line as half-brother to a Listed winner from a dam that has produced four winners from four runners to race. His prominent run-style should be an asset in a muddling, tactical pace shape that favours those ridden close to the pace. The main dangers are Fulcrum, who drops in class after a fair debut for the Gosden yard, and Noble Mariner, who has the powerful Haggas-Fallon combination behind him along with a useful pedigree.
KTB Selection Silent Force
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:31am, 28 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Silent Force | 5/2 | 7Bet, 12:13am |
| Fulcrum | 10/11 | LiveScore Bet, 12:13am |
| Noble Mariner | 8/1 | Bet365, 12:13am |
| Leo Phelps | 15/2 | Bet365, 12:13am |
| Bantry Bay | 18/1 | Bet365, 12:13am |
| Fort McHenry | 40/1 | Bet Victor, 12:13am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:46 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Nottingham results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Nottingham racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest family line in the race?
Silent Force, half-brother to Golden Story, a Listed winner from 5 runs, from a dam that has had 4 other runners, 4 of them winners.
How many runners are unproven on heavy ground?
Three runners are unproven on heavy ground: Silent Force, Fulcrum and Fort McHenry.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Nottingham among those represented?
Owen Burrows with a 24% strike rate at Nottingham from 58 runs.
Who is the only horse with previous course form?
Fulcrum, who finished 4th on his one run at Nottingham without winning or placing.
Which horses are noted as usually racing prominently?
Silent Force, Fulcrum and Fort McHenry all have prominent run-styles.
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