1:20 Worcester
This Class 3 Beginners' Steeple Chase at Worcester over 2m7f on good to soft ground brings together a compact but high-quality field of seven, several of whom arrive with strong recent form and significant ability. The KTB Fit scores highlight a clear top four, headed by Johnny's Jury on 71, with the next three clustered between 58 and 61, while the remainder sit in the low-to-mid 40s. Several runners are dropping in class and in trip, which adds layers of intrigue to what looks a genuinely-run, fair test on the figures.
How the race shapes up
With a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types, the pace shape is genuinely run and confidence in that assessment is high. Dalston Lad is the one who tends to make the running, while J J Moon, Henri The Second and A Perfect Day are all prominent racers who will be on or close to the speed. Johnny's Jury and Harbour Island prefer to be held up and produce their efforts late, as does Crest of Fortune, so the key question is whether the prominent group can dictate a strong enough gallop to blunt the late challengers or whether the hold-up horses will be able to come through in the latter stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Johnny's Jury KTB Selection71/100
Johnny's Jury is a high-class performer who has won three of his five starts and finished a close third when last seen. He drops back in trip today to 2m7f having last run over 3m0½f which poses a fresh question. The yard records a 17% strike rate at Worcester from 205 runs, in line with their overall figure, while Gavin Sheehan also shows a 17% strike rate at the track from 263 rides. He has won once and been placed once from two runs on good to soft ground. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come through in the latter stages. Half-brother to Appreciate It, a Grade 1 winner who scored 10 times from 27 runs, he comes from a dam who has had seven other runners, three of them winners.
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2J J Moon61/100
J J Moon is a high-class performer on his best days with a solid official rating of 130 and recent form that includes a win and two placed efforts from his last five starts. The yard records a 16% strike rate at Worcester from 217 runs, in line with their overall figure, while Jonathan Burke has an 11% strike rate at the track from 219 rides. He drops back in trip to 2m7f today as a fresh question. He has won once and been placed four times from five runs on good to soft ground. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead, he will be prominent from the outset in what is his first appearance at Worcester.
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3Henri The Second60/100
Henri The Second is a high-class performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins and two seconds from his last four completed starts. He drops back from 3m1f to a trip he has won twice from three starts while handling good to soft ground, where he has one win and three places from eight runs. The trainer strikes at 28% at Worcester from 394 runs which is above his overall rate though this is the horse's first run here. Freddie Gingell has a 0% strike rate at the track from eight rides. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead, he will be prominent throughout.
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4Harbour Island58/100
Harbour Island is a high-class performer who has won three times from just seven career starts and arrives off the back of two victories last season. He is proven on good to soft ground with three wins from four runs. His full brother Saint Le Fort was a Listed winner who scored twice from 13 runs, and the dam has had five other runners, four of them winners. The yard has a 22% strike rate at Worcester from 174 runs while Sean Bowen has a 23% strike rate at the track from 466 rides. Dropping in class, he is usually held up and produces his effort late.
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5Crest of Fortune50/100
Crest of Fortune is a high-class performer on his official rating of 135 and consistent recent form figures of 24635. He drops back in trip to 2m7f today having last run over 3m1f, which asks a fresh question, while this is his first run at Worcester. The yard has a 20% strike rate here from 137 runs, in line with their record elsewhere, and he has a win and a place from five runs on good to soft. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is dropping in class.
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6Dalston Lad48/100
Dalston Lad is a high-class performer who arrives in excellent order after two wins from his last three starts and holds an official rating of 136. He has four wins from eight runs on good to soft and the drop back from 3m is simply a fresh question. Trainer at Worcester shows an 18% strike rate from 441 runs in line with his record elsewhere while this is the horse's first appearance at the track. Usually front-running, he tends to make the running or race on the pace and is dropping in class.
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7A Perfect Day48/100
A Perfect Day is a high-class performer who arrives in solid recent form with figures of 13523. He has won both starts on good to soft ground and is 1 from 2 at today's trip, though he steps up in distance from 2m5½f. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from five runs at Worcester while the dam has had only one other runner who failed to win. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead, he is dropping in class.
KTB verdict
Johnny's Jury looks the one to beat. A high-class performer who has won three of his five starts and finished a close third when last seen, he drops back in trip to 2m7f having last run over 3m0½f. The yard and jockey both operate at 17% at Worcester, in line with their records elsewhere, and he has form on good to soft. His late run-style should suit a genuinely-run race. The main dangers are J J Moon and Henri The Second, both prominent racers with strong recent form and solid official ratings, while Harbour Island is another who could come into it late having won three times from seven starts.
KTB Selection Johnny's Jury
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:03am, 1 Nov. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Johnny's Jury | 5/6 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| J J Moon | 18/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Henri The Second | 12/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Harbour Island | 11/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Crest of Fortune | 4/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Dalston Lad | 4/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| A Perfect Day | 30/1 | 7Bet, 12:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 1:20 Worcester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Worcester racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Worcester results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Worcester racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping back in trip from the furthest previous distance?
Johnny's Jury last ran over 3m0½f and now drops to 2m7f.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Worcester among the principals?
Paul Nicholls with a 28% strike rate from 394 runs.
Which runner has the best going record on good to soft among those with multiple wins on the surface?
Dalston Lad with four wins from eight runs on good to soft.
How many principals are usually held up?
Two: Johnny's Jury and Harbour Island.
What is the family note for the KTB selection?
Half-brother to Appreciate It, a Grade 1 winner (10 wins from 27 runs). The dam has had 7 other runners, 3 of them winners.
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