Lightning Bay (GB)
Lightning Bay is a maiden who has failed to win in 17 starts with four places. His best effort came when second of 12 at Wolverhampton in Jul 2024. All wins for the sire’s progeny have come over 1m – 1m1f on good to soft. He finished fourth of 11 at Southwell in Oct 2024.
- 0–17Wins / Runs
- 0%Strike rate
- 4 (23.5%)Placed
- −17.00£1 level staken=17 at SP
- 0.00Fair A/E n=17 · 0.00 incl. margin
- 47Highest OR
- 19dAvg between runs
A/E compares actual wins with what starting prices implied. "Fair" strips the bookmaker margin from the expectation, so favourites and longshots are judged on the same footing — figures near 1.00 mean the market priced this horse about right.
KTB Speed and Rating
Best recent Speed 91
How fast the horse ran, as points against the day-corrected standard time for its course and distance: 100 is the median GB Class 4 handicap winner on that code; one point is 0.1% of the standard time. A, B or C is how much the day's card could tell us, not how good the run was.
| Going | Runs | Best | Median | Since 14 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 16 | 96B | 79 | — |
| Good | 1 | — | — | — |
| Distance | Runs | Best | Median | Since 14 Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 12 | 96B | 79 | — |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 3 | 82A | 71 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 2 | 87A | 64.5 | — |
KTB Speed v1 · batch 15 Sep 2026 · GB & Irish racing only · 17 figures from 17 runs · as at 3 Oct 2026 · a record, not a forecast
Both figures are KTB's own, computed from the archive; no vendor rating enters either. Every run's figure is on its form line below with its grade. Grades measure how much the archive could see, never the merit of the run.
Run style from 3 analysed runs
- Held up 2 (67%) · 0 wins
- Prominent 1 (33%) · 0 wins
Pedigree intelligence
Progeny in our archive have won 9.9% of 3,703 runs since Jan 2008 (243 horses).
Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.9% from 640. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 288.
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Firm | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | +3.4 | — |
| Good to Firm | 629 | 77 | 12.2% | +2.3 | — |
| Good | 811 | 84 | 10.4% | +0.5 | 0 from 1 |
| Good to Soft | 329 | 26 | 7.9% | −2 | — |
| Soft | 354 | 37 | 10.5% | +0.6 | — |
| Heavy | 99 | 9 | 9.1% | −0.8 | — |
| Standard (AW) | 1,466 | 132 | 9% | −0.9 | 0 from 16 |
| Distance (all codes) | Runs | Wins | SR | vs sire | This horse |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6f | 640 | 89 | 13.9% | +4 | — |
| 6f – 7f | 1,888 | 174 | 9.2% | −0.7 | 0 from 2 |
| 1m – 1m1f | 776 | 79 | 10.2% | +0.3 | 0 from 12 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 288 | 16 | 5.6% | −4.3 | 0 from 3 |
| 1m5f – 2m | 79 | 7 | 8.9% | −1 | — |
| 2m1f – 2m4f | 30 | 2 | 6.7% | −3.2 | — |
| 2m5f – 3m | 2 | 0 | 0% | −9.9 | — |
Flat and jumps together (all codes) · since Jan 2008 · as at 14 Oct 2026 · rows under 30 runs muted · win % is the measure, a record not a forecast
6 siblings in the archive, 4 winners — best of them Solanna (GB) (10 wins).
The wins came over 7f–1m3½f; the highest grade won is Class 3 (Final Night (GB)).
Family form: Final Night (GB) finished 2nd of 17 at York, 9 Oct 2026.
| Produce | Runs | Wins | Win trips | Best grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solanna (GB) | 58 | 10 | 1m–1m3f | Class 5 |
| Light Lily (GB) | 39 | 8 | 7f–1m | Class 5 |
| Final Night (GB) | 26 | 4 | 1m | Class 3 |
| Knight Of Kings (GB) | 16 | 1 | 1m3½f | Class 6 |
| Lily Cliff (GB) | 5 | 0 | — | — |
| She's Still Mine (GB) | 12 | 0 | — | — |
Record by conditions
| Going | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard (AW) | 16 | 0 | 0% | −16.00 |
| Good | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Class | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Class 6 | 13 | 0 | 0% | −13.00 |
| Class 5 | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Course | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolverhampton (AW) | 7 | 0 | 0% | −7.00 |
| Lingfield (AW) | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Chelmsford City (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Kempton (AW) | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Southwell (AW) | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Brighton | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Distance | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m – 1m1f | 12 | 0 | 0% | −12.00 |
| 1m2f – 1m4f | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| 6f – 7f | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Jockey | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Bradley | 4 | 0 | 0% | −4.00 |
| Luke Morris | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Darragh Keenan | 2 | 0 | 0% | −2.00 |
| Daniel Muscutt | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Silvestre De Sousa | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Callum Shepherd | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Adam Farragher | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Tyler Heard | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Harry Burns | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Cam Hardie | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| George Wood | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Headgear | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| Tongue tie + cheekpieces | 6 | 0 | 0% | −6.00 |
| Tongue tie | 3 | 0 | 0% | −3.00 |
| Cheekpieces | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Visor | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
| Season | Runs | Wins | SR | £1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 16 | 0 | 0% | −16.00 |
| 2023 | 1 | 0 | 0% | −1.00 |
Splits include every sample, however small — muted rows are under 3 runs. A one-from-one record is a fact, not a trend: read the Runs column before the strike rate.
Form
| Date | Course | Race | Pos | Btn | Wgt | OR | Spd | KTB | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct 24+28d | Southwell (AW) | Golf And Gallop Package Handicap Sat close behind the front-runner early - pushed along and stayed on from over 2f out - lacked the speed to get on terms - finished 4th | 4/11 | 2¼ | 9-0 | 45 | 83A | 59A | Daniel Muscutt | 33/1 |
| 23 Sep 24+16d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Get The Inside Track With raceday-ready.com Handicap Settled among the pack early - blocked for room approaching final 2f - unable to find more inside the last 100 yards - beaten into 8th | 8/12 | 1 | 9-3 | 45 | 91A | 54A | Luke Morris | 10/1 |
| 07 Sep 24+11d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Stone Cleaning & Restorative Handicap Held up towards the back throughout - never a threat - finished well held in 10th | 10/12 | 4½ | 9-0 | 46 | 76A | 38A | Darragh Keenan | 5/1 |
| 27 Aug 24+12d | Lingfield (AW) | National Racehorse Week 7th-15th September Handicap Handy position on the wide side - pushed along with two furlongs left - stayed on inside the last but lacked the speed to get closer | 5/10 | 1¼ | 8-10 | 47 | 96B | 58A | Luke Morris | 16/1 |
| 15 Aug 24+23d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Each Way Extra At bet365 Handicap Settled among the leading group - pressed for effort inside final furlong - closed strongly through the line to take third | 3/9 | 1½ | 8-10 | 47 | 82A | 52A | Luke Morris | 5/1 |
| 23 Jul 24+15d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Tips For Every Race At raceday-ready.com Handicap | 2/12 | ½ | 9-0 | 46 | 89A | 70A | Silvestre De Sousa | 7/1 |
| 08 Jul 24+18d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Get The Inside Track With raceday-ready.com Handicap (Div 1) | 7/11 | hd | 8-9 | 46 | 87A | 47A | Callum Shepherd | 12/1 |
| 20 Jun 24+51d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Tips For Every Race At Raceday-Ready Classified Stakes | 5/11 | ¾ | 9-0 | 47 | 95A | 54A | Adam Farragher | 25/1 |
| 30 Apr 24+20d | Brighton | Old Ship Brightons Oldest Hotel Handicap | 10/12 | nk | 9-1 | 47 | 57C | 27C | Paddy Bradley | 9/1 |
| 10 Apr 24+8d | Lingfield (AW) | Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap | 2/7 | nse | 9-0 | 45 | 66A | 54A | Paddy Bradley | 8/1 |
| 02 Apr 24+19d | Wolverhampton (AW) | Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap | 2/8 | ¾ | 9-0 | 45 | 56A | 51A | Paddy Bradley | 11/1 |
| 14 Mar 24+7d | Chelmsford City (AW) | Betsi Handicap | 4/6 | 2½ | 8-11 | 45 | 82A | 46B | Paddy Bradley | 28/1 |
| 07 Mar 24+22d | Lingfield (AW) | Best Racing Odds Guaranteed At Betmgm Handicap | 5/7 | nk | 8-6 | 45 | 71A | 43A | Tyler Heard | 125/1 |
| 14 Feb 24+21d | Kempton (AW) | Unibet More Extra Place Races Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2) | 7/7 | 6½ | 8-11 | — | 30C | 36C | Darragh Keenan | 250/1 |
| 24 Jan 24+12d | Kempton (AW) | Unibet More Boosts In More Races Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) | 9/9 | 13 | 8-9 | — | 42C | 45C | Harry Burns | 200/1 |
| 12 Jan 24+23d | Wolverhampton (AW) | BetMGM: It's Showtime Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) | 10/11 | 1¾ | 8-9 | — | 38A | 32A | Cam Hardie | 150/1 |
| 20 Dec 23 | Lingfield (AW) | BetMGM: It's Showtimes/EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (GBB Race) (Div 2) | 9/9 | 24 | 9-7 | — | 27C | 40C | George Wood | 28/1 |
Quick answers
- How many races has Lightning Bay (GB) won?
- Lightning Bay (GB) has yet to win, from 17 archived starts between 2023 and 2024. Placed 4 times in total (23.5% of starts).
- Who trained Lightning Bay (GB)?
- Lightning Bay (GB) was trained by John Butler on the most recent run on record, at Southwell (AW) on 21 October 2024.
- Who is Lightning Bay (GB)'s sire?
- Lightning Bay (GB) is by Cable Bay (IRE) out of Night Lily (IRE), whose sire is Night Shift.
- What is Lightning Bay (GB)'s official rating?
- The most recent official rating on record is 45, from the run on 21 October 2024. The highest on record is 47.
- What is Lightning Bay (GB)'s sire's record?
- Cable Bay (IRE)'s progeny in our archive have won 9.9% of 3,703 runs since Jan 2008 (243 horses), Flat and jumps together. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.9% from 640. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 288.
- Who are Lightning Bay (GB)'s siblings?
- Out of Night Lily (IRE), Lightning Bay (GB) has 6 other produce in our archive, 4 of them winners. Most wins: Solanna (GB) (10). Highest grade won: Class 3 (Final Night (GB)). The wins came over 7f–1m3½f. As at Oct 2026.