What is Paddy Bradley's strike rate?

Paddy Bradley has won 150 of 1,661 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paddy Bradley do best at?

Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 9 wins from 57 rides (15.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Paddy Bradley ride most for?

Simon Dow, with 281 rides since 2022 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 29 (10.3%).

Is Paddy Bradley in form?

In the last 14 days: 22 rides, 1 winner, a strike rate of 4.5%. That is below the baseline of 9% since 2022.

What is Paddy Bradley's Fair A/E?

1.01, from 1,649 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Paddy Bradley

1,661 rides in the last 5 seasons · 602 individual horses

As at 8 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride yesterday 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2012→)

from 1 Jan 2022

150–1,661

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=1,661

421 (25%)

Placed

1.01

Fair A/E

n=1,649 · 0.85 incl. margin

−343.46

£1 level stake

n=1,661 at SP · −20.7%

£1.38m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

10.2%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 330 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.01). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 12% (147 rides). The rider is quiet just now — 1 winner in the last fortnight, below their own baseline.

Deterministic profile computed from 1,661 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 8 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Feb 29.7% when favourite Simon Dow: 10.3% from 281 LTO winners: 12.2% Rides the favourite in 7% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Southwell (AW) (15.8%, n=57) and Yarmouth (15.6%, n=45) — all clear of the rider's 9% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 12.2% (n=147, Fair A/E 0.72), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 4.6% (n=109, Fair A/E 0.77). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 5.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.81 and −269.95 to a £1 stake over 597 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Right now the rider is in a quiet spell: 1 from 22 rides in the last 14 days (4.5%, 4.5pts below the 9% baseline). Simon Dow supplies 17% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (10.3%, A/E 1.17) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well off a 0-7-day break (21%, n=62). The standout partner of the record: Latin (IRE) — 5 wins from 14 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Jan–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

5.7%−3.3

n=597 · A/E 0.81 · £1 −269.95

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

12.2%+3.2

n=147 · A/E 0.72 · £1 −57.99

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

5.1%−3.9

n=254 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −42.00

When favourite

29.7%

n=118 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −16.52

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

8.9%−0.1

n=426 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −131.43

Big fields · 14+ runners

4.6%−4.4

n=109 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −82.92

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−9.0

n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

Off a 0-7-day break 21% vs 9% · n=62

With James Owen 19% vs 9% · n=79

With Jim Boyle 2.4% vs 9% · n=85

With debutants 2.5% vs 9% · n=81

At Southwell (AW) 15.8% vs 9% · n=57

At Yarmouth 15.6% vs 9% · n=45

This filter uses derived form angles computed for 8.2% of the archive so far (as at 8 Nov 2026); the sample will grow as sequencing completes.

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 1,074 107 10% −47.02

Good 219 12 5.5% −127.34

Good to Firm 218 17 7.8% −148.80

Good to Soft 67 7 10.4% +8.70

Soft 57 5 8.8% −24.50

Heavy 23 0 0% −23.00

Firm 3 2 66.7% +18.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Lingfield (AW) 411 46 11.2% +31.88

Kempton (AW) 292 18 6.2% −81.17

Wolverhampton (AW) 184 23 12.5% +26.47

Chelmsford (AW) 111 8 7.2% −27.75

Brighton 99 9 9.1% −47.55

Windsor 86 5 5.8% −27.25

Lingfield 62 6 9.7% −17.54

Southwell (AW) 57 9 15.8% −16.45

Epsom 51 3 5.9% −38.92

Yarmouth 45 7 15.6% −8.88

Sandown 37 1 2.7% −31.00

Goodwood 29 0 0% −29.00

Bath 25 4 16% +6.20

Newcastle (AW) 19 3 15.8% +20.00

Salisbury 18 1 5.6% −16.38

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 786 90 11.5% −48.89

Class 5 489 37 7.6% −238.32

Class 4 287 19 6.6% +11.25

Class 3 54 3 5.6% −26.00

Class 2 34 1 2.9% −30.50

Class 1 11 0 0% −11.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 137 37 27% 0.94 −28.27

2nd–3rd fav 284 46 16.2% 0.97 −61.02

4th–6th fav 552 51 9.2% 1.20 −24.17

7th+ in betting 688 16 2.3% 0.84 −230.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Arctician (IRE) 23 4 7 14 Apr 26

Tronido (GB) 22 4 5 9 Jul 26

Hul Ah Bah Loo (IRE) 20 3 7 4 Sep 24

Naasma (IRE) 19 3 10 13 Jul 26

Rey De La Batalla (GB) 18 1 6 18 Mar 26

Roundabout Silver (GB) 18 2 6 22 Jul 25

Star Of Epsom (GB) 18 4 7 20 Sep 24

Recuerdame (USA) 18 4 6 13 Apr 24

Dubai Harbour (GB) 17 1 5 11 Aug 26

I'm Mable (GB) 17 1 5 21 May 24

Epsom Faithfull (GB) 16 3 7 16 Feb 25

Cabeza De Llave (GB) 15 2 6 7 Sep 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 602 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Quiet spell

1 from 22 4.5% · −4.5pts vs baseline

Last 14 days4.5%

5-season base9%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

111371269109951210

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardSimon Dow

17% of all rides
10.3% SR · A/E 1.17

TrainerRWSR£1

Simon Dow 281 29 10.3% −28.88

Michael Attwater 267 22 8.2% −60.42

Pat Phelan 240 23 9.6% +59.08

Charlie Fellowes 110 14 12.7% +13.32

Jim Boyle 85 2 2.4% −68.25

James Owen 79 15 19% −22.61

Patrick Morris 68 6 8.8% −18.25

John Butler 39 1 2.6% −29.50

Ismail Mohammed 39 5 12.8% −0.75

Gary & Josh Moore 36 5 13.9% +7.63

Simon Pearce 33 5 15.2% +20.50

Kevin Philippart De Foy 30 4 13.3% −0.50

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2012→

204

Archived wins

£1.76m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 44 wins

Forceful Appeal (USA) — Sunbets All-weather Championships Apprentice Handicap Lingfield (AW) · Apr 2017 · Class 2

£31,125

Cosi Bello (GB) — William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap Haydock · Apr 2026 · Class 2

£25,770

Dembe (GB) — Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Handicap Lingfield (AW) · Jan 2025 · Class 3

£18,319

Notable horses

Latin (IRE) Arctician (IRE) Tronido (GB) Star Of Epsom (GB) Recuerdame (USA) Settle Petal (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dark Angel (IRE) 7% · 4–57

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,953 runs since 2011 (1,596 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Churchill (IRE) 11.3% · 6–53

Progeny have won 11% of 4,851 runs since 2021 (462 horses).

Kodiac (GB) 10.4% · 5–48

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,603 runs since 2010 (1,666 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 254.

Dandy Man (IRE) 14.9% · 7–47

Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,988 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 170.

No Nay Never (USA) 15.9% · 7–44

Progeny have won 12.1% of 6,375 runs since 2018 (710 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 9.1% from 618. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 186.

Cable Bay (IRE) 10.3% · 4–39

Progeny have won 9.9% of 3,727 runs since 2019 (243 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 645. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 290.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 8 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,375 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,375 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 19 November 2012 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Doncaster Ongombo (GB)T: Charlie Fellowes Virgin Bet Supports Safer Gambling Nursery Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 3rd 6/1

06 Nov 26 Newcastle (AW) Book Of Life (GB)T: Patrick Morris All-Weather Championship Season 14 Has Begun Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 3rd 15/2

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Maliqui (IRE)T: Charlie Fellowes AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 16/1

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Cavalry Call (IRE)T: Patrick Morris Midnite Built Different Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 13 ran 3rd 20/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Cosi Bello (GB)T: Charlie Fellowes Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Handicap StakesClass 2 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 9 ran 2nd 7/4F

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Soy Loco (IRE)T: Simon Dow Unibet's New VAR Goal Guarantee Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 13th 50/1

03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Tan Rapido (GB)T: Charlie Fellowes Midnite Aint Your Grandads Bookie Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 2nd 12/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Light Of Aurora (GB)T: Gihan Arnolda AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 4th 300/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Frumoasa (IRE)T: Charlie Fellowes AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 33/1

02 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Big Bear Hug (GB)T: Jim Boyle Make The Move To Midnite Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 13.5f · Standard · 6 ran 5th 20/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket George Wickham (IRE)T: Jamie Moore & Josh Moore Munich's Allianz-grosser Preis Von Bayern Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 1st 6/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Miss Faithfull (IRE)T: Charlie Fellowes Cologne's 65 Preis Von Europa British Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 10th 250/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Brigand (GB)T: Jim Boyle Westminster-137 Grosser Preis Von Berlin Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 7th 125/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Sail On Sailor (GB)T: Simon Dow Munich's Grosser Dallmayr-preis Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 10th 10/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket China In Your Hand (GB)T: Charlie Fellowes Irish Stallion Farms Ebf 'bosra Sham' Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 6f · Good To Soft · 13 ran 5th 28/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) King Chaos (IRE)T: Rebecca Menzies Make The Move To Midnite Handicap StakesClass 5 · 11f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 14/1

29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Wild Rock (IRE)T: Ross Burdon AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Novice Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 8f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 66/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Zero Carbon (FR)T: Mark Loughnane Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 6th 12/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Imperial Cult (IRE)T: Pat Phelan Try Unibet's New Racing Bet Builder Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 10th 40/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Upsomdowns (GB)T: Pat Phelan Unibet's New VAR Goal Guarantee Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 4th 100/30

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 6 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 3 runs (won 1) · fastest on KTB Speed in 6 runs (won 0) · to 7 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Paddy Bradley's strike rate?: Paddy Bradley has won 150 of 1,661 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 9% (as at 8 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paddy Bradley do best at?: Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 9 wins from 57 rides (15.8%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Paddy Bradley ride most for?: Simon Dow, with 281 rides since 2022 — 17% of the total. That pairing has won 29 (10.3%).
Is Paddy Bradley in form?: In the last 14 days: 22 rides, 1 winner, a strike rate of 4.5%. That is below the baseline of 9% since 2022.
What is Paddy Bradley's Fair A/E?: 1.01, from 1,649 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.