What is Alan Johns's strike rate?

Alan Johns has won 56 of 549 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10.2% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Alan Johns do best at?

Ffos Las by strike rate: 11 wins from 62 rides (17.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Alan Johns ride most for?

Tim Vaughan, with 403 rides since 2022 — 73% of the total. That pairing has won 45 (11.2%).

What is Alan Johns's Fair A/E?

1.00, from 548 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Alan Johns

549 rides in the last 5 seasons · 144 individual horses

As at 19 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Sep 2025 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)

from 1 Jan 2022

56–549

Wins / Runs

10.2%

Strike rate

n=549

152 (28%)

Placed

1.00

Fair A/E

n=548 · 0.86 incl. margin

−123.24

£1 level stake

n=548 at SP · −22.5%

£684k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

10.4%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 110 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.00). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 15% (60 rides). Rides mostly for Tim Vaughan — 73% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 549 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 19 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Feb–May 31% when favourite Tim Vaughan: 11.2% from 403 LTO winners: 15% Rides the favourite in 8% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Ffos Las (17.7%, n=62), clear of the rider's 10.2% baseline. It is weakest at Uttoxeter (2.4% over 41 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15% (n=60, Fair A/E 0.79), but first rides on a horse have been a poor signal at 2% (n=101, Fair A/E 0.39). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 6.2% strike, Fair A/E 0.77 and −97.79 to a £1 stake over 161 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Tim Vaughan supplies 73% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (11.2%, A/E 1.00) — the market has that partnership priced right. The rider also reads well off a 15-30-day break (15.5%, n=155) and on Heavy going (16.7%, n=54). The standout partner of the record: Eva's Oskar (IRE) — 7 wins from 26 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Feb–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.2% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

2%−8.2

n=101 · A/E 0.39 · £1 −90.25

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

15%+4.8

n=60 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −23.17

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

6.2%−4.0

n=161 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −97.79

When favourite

31%

n=42 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −4.50

Big fields · 14+ runners

5.9%−4.3

n=85 · A/E 1.29 · £1 −30.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−10.2

n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On first rides for the horse 2% vs 10.2% · n=101

With debutants 0% vs 10.2% · n=32

At Ffos Las 17.7% vs 10.2% · n=62

At Uttoxeter 2.4% vs 10.2% · n=41

Off a 15-30-day break 15.5% vs 10.2% · n=155

On Heavy going 16.7% vs 10.2% · n=54

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 306 24 7.8% −84.24

Chase 215 32 14.9% −11.00

NH Flat 27 0 0% −27.00

Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 173 24 13.9% +49.28

Good to Soft 172 12 7% −102.13

Soft 146 10 6.8% −85.84

Heavy 54 9 16.7% +18.45

Good to Firm 3 1 33.3% −2.00

Standard (AW) 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chepstow 84 5 6% −40.75

Ffos Las 62 11 17.7% +30.37

Taunton 42 5 11.9% +14.00

Uttoxeter 41 1 2.4% −33.00

Exeter 40 4 10% −4.17

Hereford 29 2 6.9% −16.12

Warwick 24 3 12.5% −13.54

Huntingdon 19 1 5.3% −17.09

Ludlow 19 0 0% −19.00

Lingfield 18 2 11.1% −4.00

Wincanton 15 1 6.7% +8.00

Bangor-on-Dee 15 1 6.7% −11.50

Sandown 14 2 14.3% +7.50

Cheltenham 12 3 25% +15.75

Plumpton 11 1 9.1% −7.25

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 230 26 11.3% −60.14

Class 4 223 18 8.1% −73.68

Class 3 59 7 11.9% +14.25

Class 2 27 4 14.8% −2.67

Class 1 10 1 10% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 50 14 28% 0.97 −8.00

2nd–3rd fav 122 15 12.3% 0.70 −65.74

4th–6th fav 187 18 9.6% 1.24 −15.50

7th+ in betting 189 8 4.2% 1.64 −34.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

83.9% completed · 521 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 215 80.9% 3 3 35 0 0

Hurdle 306 85.9% 2 4 36 0 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Bells Of Peterboro (IRE) 19 2 7 10 Mar 25

Twilight Glory (GB) 18 4 8 20 Mar 25

Silver In Disguise (GB) 14 1 6 15 May 24

Weaver's Answer (GB) 12 2 7 10 Mar 25

Bells Of Stamford (IRE) 12 2 5 26 Jun 24

Run To Milan (IRE) 12 1 7 11 Feb 24

Mistymal (IRE) 11 1 3 5 Feb 25

Airtothethrone (IRE) 11 1 4 28 Nov 24

Mourzouk (IRE) 10 1 2 12 Mar 25

Wonderweasle (GB) 10 1 3 9 Feb 25

Colonial Empire (GB) 10 3 5 23 Jan 25

Kap Chidley (FR) 10 0 2 4 May 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 144 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 3 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

71216131170009611

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardTim Vaughan

73% of all rides
11.2% SR · A/E 1.00

TrainerRWSR£1

Tim Vaughan 403 45 11.2% −101.82

Victor Dartnall 74 7 9.5% +37.33

Sam Allwood 36 3 8.3% −25.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→

226

Archived wins

£2.09m

Prize money

2019

Best season · 42 wins

Eva's Oskar (IRE) — Dahlbury Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Dec 2022 · Class 1

£39,865

Le Milos (GB) — Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Sandown · Feb 2022 · Class 2

£26,164

Kalium (FR) — Join Racing TV Now 'Introductory' Hurdle (GBB Race) Wetherby · Nov 2024 · Class 2

£16,338

Notable horses

Eva's Oskar (IRE) Tanit River (IRE) Bells Of Peterboro (IRE) Coopers Square (IRE) Twilight Glory (GB) Nathans Pride (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Fame And Glory (GB) 14.8% · 4–27

Progeny have won 12.5% of 6,203 runs since 2008 (504 horses).

Kayf Tara (GB) 4.2% · 1–24

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,739 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Mahler (GB) 20.8% · 5–24

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,836 runs since 2008 (784 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Dunaden (FR) 9.5% · 2–21

Progeny have won 9.6% of 628 runs since 2008 (69 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 15.7% from 102.

Carlotamix (FR) 10.5% · 2–19

Progeny have won 10.1% of 1,031 runs since 2008 (114 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 15% from 160. Weakest on Good going: 6.7% from 270.

Yeats (IRE) 5.9% · 1–17

Progeny have won 11.9% of 9,807 runs since 2008 (704 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 6.9% from 203. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.3% from 816.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 19 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,261 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,261 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 11 April 2009 to 14 September 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

14 Sep 25 Doncaster Double Time (GB)T: Tim Vaughan IPM Group Leger Legends Classified Stakes (Str)Class 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 6th 33/1

06 Apr 25 Ffos Las Bumpy Evans (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan DragonBet Sponsors Alan Johns Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 1st 8/13F

06 Apr 25 Ffos Las Holeshot (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan RHN Travel Destinations In Comfort Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 5th 10/3

06 Apr 25 Ffos Las Mary's Fortune (FR)T: Tim Vaughan RHN Your Professional Travel Partner Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 6th 25/1

06 Apr 25 Ffos Las Ileny Royale (FR)T: Tim Vaughan Welsh Cottage Cakes Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 7th 9/1

05 Apr 25 Chepstow Bells Of Ufford (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan DragonBet 'Remembering John Lovell' Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 9/2

27 Mar 25 Warwick Holeshot (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan Weatherbys & Northampton Town FC Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 4 ran 1st 15/8F

22 Mar 25 Newbury Kalium (FR)T: Tim Vaughan Get Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19f · Good · 9 ran 1st 8/1

20 Mar 25 Chepstow Twilight Glory (GB)T: Tim Vaughan Treforest Tiling 52nd Anniversary Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 30.5f · Good · 9 ran PU 5/1

17 Mar 25 Fontwell Chankaya (GB)T: Tim Vaughan BetGoodwin Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Good · 12 ran 7th 20/1

16 Mar 25 Chepstow Benignitas (IRE)T: Gordon Treacy DragonBet Born From The Betting Ring Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 16/1

12 Mar 25 Huntingdon Mourzouk (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan 2025 Season Tickets On Sale Now Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 7 ran PU 13/2

10 Mar 25 Taunton Weaver's Answer (GB)T: Tim Vaughan Pricing By Real Bookmakers At DragonBet Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 11/2

10 Mar 25 Taunton Bells Of Peterboro (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan DragonBet Backing Our Opinion At Cheltenham Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 28.5f · Good · 5 ran 5th 2/1F

10 Mar 25 Taunton Conniemak (GB)T: Tim Vaughan DragonBet Proud Sponsors of Taunton Racecourse EBF Junior 'National Hunt' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 9 ran 7th 18/1

08 Mar 25 Sandown Celtic Queen (GB)T: Tim Vaughan British Stallion Studs EBF Mares' Standard Open NH Flat Race (Listed) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 7th 66/1

07 Mar 25 Leicester Bumpy Evans (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan Coldstream Guards Association Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 1st 11/10F

22 Feb 25 Chepstow Mini Yeats (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan Pertemps Network EMEA Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Soft · 10 ran 3rd 16/1

20 Feb 25 Lingfield Weaver's Answer (GB)T: Tim Vaughan Sri Lanka Awaits You Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23f · Soft · 9 ran 2nd 4/1

20 Feb 25 Lingfield Twilight Glory (GB)T: Tim Vaughan Sri Lanka, The Wonder Of Asia Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Soft · 8 ran 2nd 5/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Alan Johns's strike rate?: Alan Johns has won 56 of 549 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10.2% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Alan Johns do best at?: Ffos Las by strike rate: 11 wins from 62 rides (17.7%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Alan Johns ride most for?: Tim Vaughan, with 403 rides since 2022 — 73% of the total. That pairing has won 45 (11.2%).
What is Alan Johns's Fair A/E?: 1.00, from 548 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.