What is Alan Johns's strike rate?

Alan Johns has won 226 of 2,261 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Alan Johns do best at?

Newton Abbot by strike rate: 11 wins from 77 rides (14.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Alan Johns ride most for?

Tim Vaughan, with 1,752 rides since 2008 — 77% of the total. That pairing has won 188 (10.7%).

What is Alan Johns's Fair A/E?

0.99, from 2,258 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Alan Johns

2,261 rides in the lifetime window · 614 individual horses

As at 13 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride Sep 2025 100% of rides over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2009→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

226–2,261

Wins / Runs

10%

Strike rate

n=2,261

619 (27%)

Placed

0.99

Fair A/E

n=2,258 · 0.86 incl. margin

−695.40

£1 level stake

n=2,260 at SP · −30.8%

£2.09m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

10.4%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 120 times a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning on 10% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.99). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 19% (228 rides). Rides mostly for Tim Vaughan — 77% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 2,261 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 13 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Mar–May 36% when favourite Tim Vaughan: 10.7% from 1,752 LTO winners: 18.9% Claiming: 11.8% Rides the favourite in 8% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Sedgefield (18.2%, n=55), clear of the rider's 10% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 18.9% (n=228, Fair A/E 1.01), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 0% (n=42, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 4.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.66 and −394.32 to a £1 stake over 614 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Tim Vaughan supplies 77% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (10.7%, A/E 0.99) — the market has that partnership priced right. The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 2% over 49 rides, 8pts below the baseline. The standout partner of the record: Eva's Oskar (IRE) — 7 wins from 26 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Mar–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

4.7%−5.3

n=614 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −394.32

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

18.9%+8.9

n=228 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −53.08

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

6.9%−3.1

n=692 · A/E 0.87 · £1 −349.11

When favourite

36%

n=178 · A/E 1.07 · £1 −16.36

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

11.8%+1.8

n=621 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −143.20

Big fields · 14+ runners

4%−6.0

n=354 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −175.75

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−10.0

n=42 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −42.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 18.9% vs 10% · n=228

With Tom Lacey 22.9% vs 10% · n=35

In Group / Graded races 0% vs 10% · n=42

On first rides for the horse 4.7% vs 10% · n=614

At Sedgefield 18.2% vs 10% · n=55

In Class 1 2% vs 10% · n=49

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 1,412 120 8.5% −600.98

Chase 735 100 13.6% −58.22

NH Flat 113 6 5.3% −35.20

Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 802 96 12% −153.59

Soft 584 56 9.6% −119.25

Good to Soft 530 37 7% −311.34

Heavy 260 26 10% −83.76

Good to Firm 73 9 12.3% −29.66

Standard (AW) 9 1 11.1% +4.00

Firm 3 1 33.3% −1.80

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chepstow 210 13 6.2% −107.25

Ffos Las 189 19 10.1% −40.92

Uttoxeter 162 11 6.8% −95.75

Taunton 125 13 10.4% −12.45

Exeter 95 7 7.4% −43.17

Warwick 91 9 9.9% +7.21

Southwell 86 10 11.6% −22.87

Newton Abbot 77 11 14.3% +4.52

Ludlow 74 7 9.5% −17.38

Worcester 72 5 6.9% −16.50

Hereford 70 4 5.7% −46.62

Bangor-on-Dee 68 6 8.8% −41.02

Wincanton 68 6 8.8% −8.05

Stratford 67 5 7.5% −22.05

Market Rasen 67 6 9% −28.38

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 1,017 100 9.8% −402.30

Class 5 760 76 10% −319.31

Class 3 291 34 11.7% +38.38

Class 2 105 11 10.5% −0.67

Class 1 49 1 2% −40.00

Class 6 39 4 10.3% +28.50

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 204 71 34.8% 1.08 −17.86

2nd–3rd fav 453 73 16.1% 0.95 −95.54

4th–6th fav 756 57 7.5% 0.96 −210.00

7th+ in betting 847 24 2.8% 0.95 −372.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

82.4% completed · 2,147 obstacle rides (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 735 75.2% 22 20 138 1 1

Hurdle 1,412 86.1% 38 13 139 3 3

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Tanit River (IRE) 27 6 9 28 Mar 21

Eva's Oskar (IRE) 26 7 11 14 Oct 23

Bells Of Peterboro (IRE) 24 5 10 10 Mar 25

Bennachie (IRE) 20 3 8 2 Aug 18

Twilight Glory (GB) 18 4 8 20 Mar 25

Silver In Disguise (GB) 18 1 6 15 May 24

Run To Milan (IRE) 17 2 9 11 Feb 24

Point Of Principle (IRE) 17 2 6 20 Nov 21

Theligny (FR) 17 3 7 10 May 21

Nathans Pride (IRE) 17 4 5 30 Oct 19

Honey Pound (IRE) 17 2 4 31 Jul 17

Bempton Cliffs (IRE) 16 3 4 31 Aug 23

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 614 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 10 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1011121213757121089

A jumps rider: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardTim Vaughan

77% of all rides
10.7% SR · A/E 0.99

TrainerRWSR£1

Tim Vaughan 1,752 188 10.7% −455.10

Victor Dartnall 107 13 12.1% +36.58

Sam Allwood 85 6 7.1% −55.30

Tom Lacey 35 8 22.9% −0.08

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2009→

226

Archived wins

£2.09m

Prize money

2019

Best season · 42 wins

Eva's Oskar (IRE) — Dahlbury Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Dec 2022 · Class 1

£39,865

Le Milos (GB) — Virgin Bet Masters Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Sandown · Feb 2022 · Class 2

£26,164

Kalium (FR) — Join Racing TV Now 'Introductory' Hurdle (GBB Race) Wetherby · Nov 2024 · Class 2

£16,338

Notable horses

Eva's Oskar (IRE) Tanit River (IRE) Bells Of Peterboro (IRE) Coopers Square (IRE) Twilight Glory (GB) Nathans Pride (IRE)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Kayf Tara (GB) 14% · 18–129

Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,769 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.

Presenting (GB) 10.1% · 8–79

Progeny have won 11% of 20,053 runs since 2008 (1,686 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 24.3% from 136.

Milan (GB) 10.3% · 8–78

Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,890 runs since 2008 (1,465 horses).

Mahler (GB) 20.8% · 11–53

Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,894 runs since 2014 (790 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.

Stowaway (GB) 7.1% · 3–42

Progeny have won 11.3% of 7,190 runs since 2008 (561 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 124.

Sulamani (IRE) 4.8% · 2–42

Progeny have won 11.5% of 4,247 runs since 2008 (278 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.1% from 479. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.4% from 240.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,261 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,261 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 11 April 2009 to 14 September 2025.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

14 Sep 25 Doncaster Double Time (GB)T: Tim Vaughan IPM Group Leger Legends Classified Stakes (Str)Class 5 · 8f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 6th 33/1

06 Apr 25 Ffos Las Bumpy Evans (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan DragonBet Sponsors Alan Johns Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 1st 8/13F

06 Apr 25 Ffos Las Holeshot (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan RHN Travel Destinations In Comfort Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 10 ran 5th 10/3

06 Apr 25 Ffos Las Mary's Fortune (FR)T: Tim Vaughan RHN Your Professional Travel Partner Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 6th 25/1

06 Apr 25 Ffos Las Ileny Royale (FR)T: Tim Vaughan Welsh Cottage Cakes Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 7th 9/1

05 Apr 25 Chepstow Bells Of Ufford (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan DragonBet 'Remembering John Lovell' Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 9/2

27 Mar 25 Warwick Holeshot (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan Weatherbys & Northampton Town FC Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 4 ran 1st 15/8F

22 Mar 25 Newbury Kalium (FR)T: Tim Vaughan Get Best Odds Guaranteed At BetVictor Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19f · Good · 9 ran 1st 8/1

20 Mar 25 Chepstow Twilight Glory (GB)T: Tim Vaughan Treforest Tiling 52nd Anniversary Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 30.5f · Good · 9 ran PU 5/1

17 Mar 25 Fontwell Chankaya (GB)T: Tim Vaughan BetGoodwin Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 21.5f · Good · 12 ran 7th 20/1

16 Mar 25 Chepstow Benignitas (IRE)T: Gordon Treacy DragonBet Born From The Betting Ring Mares' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 19.5f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 16/1

12 Mar 25 Huntingdon Mourzouk (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan 2025 Season Tickets On Sale Now Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good · 7 ran PU 13/2

10 Mar 25 Taunton Weaver's Answer (GB)T: Tim Vaughan Pricing By Real Bookmakers At DragonBet Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 24f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 11/2

10 Mar 25 Taunton Bells Of Peterboro (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan DragonBet Backing Our Opinion At Cheltenham Handicap Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 28.5f · Good · 5 ran 5th 2/1F

10 Mar 25 Taunton Conniemak (GB)T: Tim Vaughan DragonBet Proud Sponsors of Taunton Racecourse EBF Junior 'National Hunt' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 9 ran 7th 18/1

08 Mar 25 Sandown Celtic Queen (GB)T: Tim Vaughan British Stallion Studs EBF Mares' Standard Open NH Flat Race (Listed) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 16f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 7th 66/1

07 Mar 25 Leicester Bumpy Evans (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan Coldstream Guards Association Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 20f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 1st 11/10F

22 Feb 25 Chepstow Mini Yeats (IRE)T: Tim Vaughan Pertemps Network EMEA Novices' Limited Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Soft · 10 ran 3rd 16/1

20 Feb 25 Lingfield Weaver's Answer (GB)T: Tim Vaughan Sri Lanka Awaits You Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 23f · Soft · 9 ran 2nd 4/1

20 Feb 25 Lingfield Twilight Glory (GB)T: Tim Vaughan Sri Lanka, The Wonder Of Asia Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Soft · 8 ran 2nd 5/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Alan Johns's strike rate?: Alan Johns has won 226 of 2,261 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Alan Johns do best at?: Newton Abbot by strike rate: 11 wins from 77 rides (14.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Alan Johns ride most for?: Tim Vaughan, with 1,752 rides since 2008 — 77% of the total. That pairing has won 188 (10.7%).
What is Alan Johns's Fair A/E?: 0.99, from 2,258 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.