What is Axel Baron's strike rate?

Axel Baron has won 34 of 452 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.5% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Axel Baron do best at?

Longchamp (FR) by strike rate: 5 wins from 66 rides (7.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Axel Baron ride most for?

A Baron, with 193 rides since 2022 — 43% of the total. That pairing has won 17 (8.8%).

Is Axel Baron in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 10 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Axel Baron's Fair A/E?

0.97, from 450 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Axel Baron

452 rides in the last 5 seasons · 171 individual horses

As at 10 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Won yesterday Last ride yesterday 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)

from 1 Jan 2022

34–452

Wins / Runs

7.5%

Strike rate

n=452

120 (27%)

Placed

0.97

Fair A/E

n=450 · 0.80 incl. margin

−72.30

£1 level stake

n=451 at SP · −16.0%

£775k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

6.7%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 90 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.97). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 15% (33 rides). Rides mostly for A Baron — 43% of rides in the window.

Deterministic profile computed from 452 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 10 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Oct–Nov Fresh horses: 8.6% 21.9% when favourite A Baron: 8.8% from 193 LTO winners: 15.2% Claiming: 10.8% Rides the favourite in 7% of races

The read

Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15.2% (n=33, Fair A/E 1.45). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 8.6% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.31 and +22.60 to a £1 stake over 116 rides — a record the market has persistently underpriced. A Baron supplies 43% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8.8%, A/E 1.07) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well over 1m5f – 2m (11.1%, n=63). The record reads poorly on Good going — 0% over 30 rides, 7.5pts below the baseline. 4 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Prix Denisy at Fontainebleau (FR) (Nov 2024, £22,609). Seasonally, the rider fires Oct–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.5% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

4.9%−2.6

n=163 · A/E 0.92 · £1 +12.10

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

15.2%+7.7

n=33 · A/E 1.45 · £1 −5.30

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

8.6%+1.1

n=116 · A/E 1.31 · £1 +22.60

When favourite

21.9%

n=32 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −6.90

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

10.8%+3.3

n=65 · A/E 1.25 · £1 −0.90

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.2%−1.3

n=242 · A/E 0.91 · £1 −68.60

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

19%+11.5

n=21 · A/E 1.38 · £1 −8.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 15.2% vs 7.5% · n=33

On Good going 0% vs 7.5% · n=30

With debutants 1.9% vs 7.5% · n=54

With first-time headgear 2.6% vs 7.5% · n=38

Over 1m5f – 2m 11.1% vs 7.5% · n=63

When claiming 10.8% vs 7.5% · n=65

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 183 12 6.6% −24.70

Good to Soft 97 7 7.2% −39.70

Soft 95 10 10.5% −25.40

Heavy 46 5 10.9% +48.50

Good 30 0 0% −30.00

Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Deauville 145 10 6.9% −10.30

Saint-Cloud 80 5 6.3% −34.20

Longchamp (FR) 66 5 7.6% −25.00

Chantilly (FR) 53 3 5.7% −21.70

Le Lion-D'Angers (FR) 20 1 5% −12.00

Clairefontaine (FR) 12 0 0% −12.00

Craon (FR) 10 1 10% +41.00

Nantes (FR) 10 2 20% +14.00

Dieppe (FR) 9 0 0% −9.00

Saint-Malo (FR) 7 1 14.3% −4.00

Les Sables-d'Olonne (FR) 6 0 0% −6.00

Vichy (FR) 5 0 0% −5.00

Senonnes-Pouance (FR) 5 0 0% −5.00

Le Mans (FR) 5 0 0% −5.00

Chateaubriant (FR) 4 2 50% +10.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 39 2 5.1% −25.00

Class 3 25 2 8% −14.00

Class 1 22 4 18.2% −9.50

Class 2 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 35 7 20% 0.84 −9.90

2nd–3rd fav 81 11 13.6% 1.03 −12.00

4th–6th fav 101 7 6.9% 0.89 −27.80

7th+ in betting 234 9 3.8% 1.11 −22.60

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Young Man (FR) 21 4 10 15 Jun 26

Watt Ohm (FR) 17 2 8 6 Nov 26

Wings Of Fire (FR) 15 1 5 25 Sep 26

Gaillard (FR) 13 1 3 1 Oct 26

Joliepierre (FR) 11 1 4 4 Sep 26

Bel Et Bien (FR) 11 4 9 13 Nov 25

Monte Cinto (IRE) 9 0 1 20 Oct 26

Chica De Ciudad (IRE) 9 1 5 10 Oct 26

Galilee Dream (FR) 8 0 0 29 Aug 26

Over The Clouds (FR) 8 1 1 11 Jun 26

Sommerblau (FR) 8 1 2 14 May 26

Cream Ice (GB) 8 1 1 4 Dec 24

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 171 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 10

Only 10 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

9310845107710122

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardA Baron

43% of all rides
8.8% SR · A/E 1.07

TrainerRWSR£1

A Baron 193 17 8.8% −46.80

P De Chevigny 58 6 10.3% −23.10

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£834k

Prize money

2025

Best season · 12 wins

Bel Et Bien (FR) — Prix Denisy () (3yo+) (Turf) Fontainebleau (FR) · Nov 2024 · Listed

£22,609

Chica De Ciudad (IRE) — Prix du Palais des Glaces (Handicap) (4yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Grande Course) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Jun 2025

£21,901

Zelman (FR) — Prix du Treport (Handicap) (4yo+) (All-Weather Track) (Polytrack) Deauville (FR) · Feb 2025

£21,901

Notable horses

Young Man (FR) Bel Et Bien (FR) Watt Ohm (FR) Escapade Nocturne (FR) Zelman (FR) Mystic (FR)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dabirsim (FR) 12.8% · 5–39

Progeny have won 7.4% of 4,171 runs since 2017 (448 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 3.9% from 258. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12% from 209. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.7% from 146.

Hunter's Light (IRE) 20% · 4–20

Progeny have won 11% of 1,349 runs since 2019 (153 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 14.2% from 169. Weakest on Heavy going: 6.5% from 168. Strongest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 14.2% from 212. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 133.

Kamsin (GER) 11.8% · 2–17

Progeny have won 9.7% of 849 runs since 2015 (110 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12.8% from 187.

Wings Of Eagles (FR) 6.3% · 1–16

Progeny have won 10.1% of 1,038 runs since 2021 (159 horses). Strongest on Good going: 13.7% from 299. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.5% from 134.

City Light (FR) 6.7% · 1–15

Progeny have won 13.3% of 1,000 runs since 2023 (160 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 16.7% from 341. Weakest on Soft going: 10.3% from 223. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 7.6% from 185.

Sommerabend (GB) 6.7% · 1–15

Progeny have won 7.4% of 1,198 runs since 2018 (133 horses).

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 491 · newest first

The latest 50 of 491 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 18 July 2019 to 9 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

09 Nov 26 Nantes (FR) Arown (FR)T: L Edon Prix De La Place Royale12f · Heavy · 13 ran 1st 5/1

09 Nov 26 Nantes (FR) Shaloha (GER)T: G Nicot Prix Du Chateau des ducs de Bretagne12f · Heavy · 13 ran 10th 20/1

06 Nov 26 Deauville (FR) Intention Borget (FR)T: Mme Stephanie Jaffrelot-Bedon Prix De BraudiereClass 3 · 12.5f · Standard · 16 ran 13th 16/1

06 Nov 26 Deauville (FR) Watt Ohm (FR)T: A Baron Prix De Berd'huisClass 3 · 12.5f · Standard · 16 ran 9th 12/1

02 Nov 26 Nantes (FR) Blanquette (FR)T: P De Chevigny Prix Alexandre Roussel8f · Heavy · 14 ran 3rd 10/1

02 Nov 26 Nantes (FR) Angel Breizh (FR)T: L Edon Prix Des SablonnetsClass 2 · 8f · Heavy · 7 ran 4th 10/1

31 Oct 26 Angers (FR) Ange Noir Pelem (FR)T: Adrien Fouassier Prix RabelaisClass 4 · 11.5f · Soft · 16 ran 9th 9/1

31 Oct 26 Angers (FR) Orion Rock (FR)T: A Baron Handicap De La MaineClass 3 · 20f · Soft · 11 ran 2nd 7/1

28 Oct 26 Le Mans (FR) Kumran (FR)T: A Baron Prix Jean MenandClass 4 · 9.5f · Heavy · 14 ran 10th 12/1

28 Oct 26 Le Mans (FR) Fighting Spirit (FR)T: P Adda Prix De La Sarthe9.5f · Heavy · 13 ran 8th 33/1

22 Oct 26 Les Sables-d'Olonne (FR) Cartaam (FR)T: Mme Stephanie Jaffrelot-Bedon Prix De La Baie Des SablesClass 4 · 13.5f · Very Soft · 15 ran 15th 20/1

22 Oct 26 Les Sables-d'Olonne (FR) King Motif (FR)T: Adrien Fouassier Prix Marcel CardinClass 4 · 9.5f · Very Soft · 9 ran 3rd 14/1

22 Oct 26 Les Sables-d'Olonne (FR) Arown (FR)T: L Edon Prix Roger CrossouardClass 4 · 13.5f · Very Soft · 16 ran 3rd 9/1

20 Oct 26 Clairefontaine (FR) Monte Cinto (IRE)T: D Mahe Prix Du Mini Meeting D'octobre (Prix Des Panicauts)14.5f · Heavy · 13 ran 8th 25/1

20 Oct 26 Clairefontaine (FR) Cerere (FR)T: D Zarroli Px Merci A La Boutique Gourmande Expl. Des Resto De Cf (Px Filiberto)9f · Heavy · 15 ran 10th 40/1

19 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Intention Borget (FR)T: Mme Stephanie Jaffrelot-Bedon Prix De La Foret D'ecouves9.5f · Standard · 16 ran 6th 33/1

14 Oct 26 Nantes (FR) Niia (FR)T: Adrien Fouassier Prix De Bretagne8f · Heavy · 12 ran 2nd 12/1

14 Oct 26 Nantes (FR) Yellow Hawk (FR)T: L Edon Prix Madhmoon8f · Heavy · 13 ran 11th 16/1

13 Oct 26 Les Sables-d'Olonne (FR) Mention Extra (FR)T: Mme Sophie Geffriaud Prix Blanpain De Saint-mars17f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 10th 20/1

13 Oct 26 Les Sables-d'Olonne (FR) Guardian (GER)T: A Baron Prix Yves Priouzeau9.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 7th 17/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Axel Baron's strike rate?: Axel Baron has won 34 of 452 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.5% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Axel Baron do best at?: Longchamp (FR) by strike rate: 5 wins from 66 rides (7.6%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Axel Baron ride most for?: A Baron, with 193 rides since 2022 — 43% of the total. That pairing has won 17 (8.8%).
Is Axel Baron in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 10 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Axel Baron's Fair A/E?: 0.97, from 450 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.