M Brasme
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 120 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 0.90). Horses in first-time headgear strike at 14% (59 runs, true-first definition).
It is weakest at Chantilly (FR) (3.8% over 133 runners) — the widest gap in the record. A horse in first-time headgear has been a positive signal at 13.6% (n=59, Fair A/E 1.77). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 5% strike, Fair A/E 0.62 and −48.40 to a £1 stake over 101 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. A Madamet rides 18% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.3%, A/E 0.79). The yard also reads well on Good going (14.6%, n=41). 3 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Prix des Reves d'Or - Jacques Bouchara at Vichy (FR) (May 2026, £23,870). Seasonally, the yard fires Dec–Apr.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.6% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
SteadyWhen the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasonsJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2017→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 854 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 854 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 26 December 2017 to 22 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is M Brasme's strike rate?
- M Brasme has won 46 of 609 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 24 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does M Brasme do best at?
- Saint-Cloud by strike rate: 11 wins from 108 runners (10.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for M Brasme?
- A Madamet, with 110 runners since 2022 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 8 (7.3%).
- Is M Brasme in form?
- In the last 14 days: 21 runners, 2 winners, a strike rate of 9.5%. That is in line with the baseline of 7.6% since 2022.
- What is M Brasme's Fair A/E?
- 0.90, from 609 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.