Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming: 10.4%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10.3% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
11.1%+0.8
n=27 · A/E 1.48 · £1 +2.50
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−10.3
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
12.5%+2.2
n=8 · A/E 2.52 · £1 +5.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=3 · A/E 1.14 · £1 +0.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
10.4%+0.1
n=67 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −6.75
Big fields · 14+ runners
9.1%−1.2
n=11 · A/E 1.42 · £1 +2.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Standard (AW) going5.9% vs 10.3% · n=34
In Class 65.9% vs 10.3% · n=34
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)3425.9%−8.00
Good to Firm17317.6%−5.75
Good9222.2%+14.00
Soft400%−4.00
Good to Soft300%−3.00
Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW)10110%+3.00
Newmarket8225%−1.25
Southwell (AW)700%−7.00
Chelmsford City (AW)600%−6.00
Lingfield (AW)600%−6.00
Yarmouth6116.7%−1.50
Kempton (AW)5120%+8.00
Newmarket4125%+8.00
Windsor300%−3.00
Brighton3133.3%+8.00
Newbury200%−2.00
Sandown100%−1.00
Bath100%−1.00
Doncaster100%−1.00
Nottingham100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 63425.9%−16.50
Class 525520%+17.75
Class 4600%−6.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite5120%0.81−2.00
2nd–3rd fav12216.7%0.95−3.75
4th–6th fav3139.7%1.22+5.00
7th+ in betting2015%1.47−7.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f2229.1%−7.00
1m5f – 2m1616.3%−3.00
Under 6f14321.4%+5.25
1m2f – 1m4f800%−8.00
1m – 1m1f8112.5%+5.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2022400%−4.00
2023200%−2.00
20241100%−11.00
20252214.5%−9.00
202629620.7%+18.25
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps6369.5%−7.25
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners2300%−23.00
5-7 runners22627.3%+25.25
11-13 runners1200%−12.00
14-16 runners9111.1%+4.00
17+ runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 27 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0001425003025000
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 10.1% of 11,577 runs since 2008 (996 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.6% from 108.
English Channel (USA)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 10.6% of 529 runs since 2008 (35 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 14.3% from 105. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.6% from 106.
Zoustar (AUS)40% · 2–5
Progeny have won 10.8% of 2,736 runs since 2008 (313 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.3% from 328. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.6% from 193.
Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,172 runs since 2008 (133 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 15.9% from 107. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 354.
Progeny have won 9.5% of 5,049 runs since 2008 (402 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.3% from 116. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 522. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.2% from 177.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 68 · newest first
The latest 50 of 68 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 24 August 2022 to 7 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Chloe Lyons's strike rate?
Chloe Lyons has won 7 of 68 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10.3% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Chloe Lyons in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 1 ride, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Chloe Lyons's Fair A/E?
1.08, from 68 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Chloe Lyons·SR 10.3%·A/E 1.08
KTB
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