Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB at a glanceClaiming: 10.3%
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10% baseline
First ride on the horse · first captured pairing
10.7%+0.7
n=28 · A/E 1.36 · £1 +1.50
Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win
0%−10.0
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Fresh horses · 61+ days off
12.5%+2.5
n=8 · A/E 2.52 · £1 +5.00
When favourite
33.3%
n=3 · A/E 1.14 · £1 +0.00
Claiming rides · riding with a claim
10.3%+0.3
n=68 · A/E 1.10 · £1 −7.75
Big fields · 14+ runners
9.1%−0.9
n=11 · A/E 1.42 · £1 +2.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On Standard (AW) going5.7% vs 10% · n=35
In Class 65.7% vs 10% · n=35
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW)3525.7%−9.00
Good to Firm17317.6%−5.75
Good9222.2%+14.00
Soft500%−5.00
Good to Soft300%−3.00
Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW)1119.1%+2.00
Newmarket8225%−1.25
Southwell (AW)700%−7.00
Yarmouth7114.3%−2.50
Chelmsford City (AW)600%−6.00
Lingfield (AW)600%−6.00
Kempton (AW)5120%+8.00
Newmarket4125%+8.00
Windsor300%−3.00
Brighton3133.3%+8.00
Newbury200%−2.00
Sandown100%−1.00
Bath100%−1.00
Doncaster100%−1.00
Nottingham100%−1.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 63525.7%−17.50
Class 525520%+17.75
Class 4700%−7.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite5120%0.81−2.00
2nd–3rd fav13215.4%0.88−4.75
4th–6th fav3139.7%1.22+5.00
7th+ in betting2114.8%1.45−8.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
6f – 7f2229.1%−7.00
1m5f – 2m1616.3%−3.00
Under 6f15320%+4.25
1m – 1m1f9111.1%+4.00
1m2f – 1m4f800%−8.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
2022400%−4.00
2023200%−2.00
20241100%−11.00
20252214.5%−9.00
202631619.4%+16.25
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps6569.2%−9.25
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners2500%−25.00
5-7 runners22627.3%+25.25
11-13 runners1200%−12.00
14-16 runners9111.1%+4.00
17+ runners200%−2.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
All 28 horses ridden in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Current form
significance-gated
Last 14 days
Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.
By month
strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0001425003025000
A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Progeny have won 10.2% of 11,616 runs since 2008 (998 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 109.
English Channel (USA)0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 10.6% of 530 runs since 2008 (35 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 14.3% from 105. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.6% from 106.
Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,179 runs since 2008 (133 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 15.9% from 107. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.7% from 357.
Zoustar (AUS)40% · 2–5
Progeny have won 10.8% of 2,750 runs since 2008 (314 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 14.2% from 330. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 3.6% from 193.
Progeny have won 9.5% of 5,058 runs since 2008 (402 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 4.3% from 117. Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13% from 523. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 6.2% from 177.
Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 28 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 70 · newest first
The latest 50 of 70 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 24 August 2022 to 27 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Chloe Lyons's strike rate?
Chloe Lyons has won 7 of 70 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 10% (as at 28 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Is Chloe Lyons in form?
Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 2 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Chloe Lyons's Fair A/E?
1.05, from 70 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Chloe Lyons·SR 10%·A/E 1.05
1Tap Share in the toolbar2Scroll down the sheet3Tap Add to Home Screen, then Add
1Open your browser's menu (the three dots)2Tap Add to Home screen or Install app
KTB
Cookies on Kickthebookies
We use essential cookies to run the site and remember your betslip. No advertising or tracking cookies, ever. By continuing to use this site, you agree. Cookie policy