Julia & Shelley Birkett
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 60 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.16).
Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0% (n=37, Fair A/E 0.00). Dylan Hogan rides 56% of the entries and edges the yard's average (14% vs 11.8%, A/E 1.22) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well at trips under 6f (19.4%, n=31). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 0% over 32 runners, 11.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good going: Fair A/E 0.66 across 52 runners (5.8% strike, −36.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Rusheen Boy (GB) — 5 wins from 24 runs for the yard.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 11.8% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerRace type
Going
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleWhen the yard fires
strike by month, 5 seasonsJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2025→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 280 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 280 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 1 January 2025 to 3 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
KTB’s figures
the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 6 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 4 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 1) · to 29 Oct 2026.
Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.
Quick answers
- What is Julia & Shelley Birkett's strike rate?
- Julia & Shelley Birkett has won 33 of 280 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 11.8% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Julia & Shelley Birkett do best at?
- Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 6 wins from 40 runners (15%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for Julia & Shelley Birkett?
- Dylan Hogan, with 157 runners since 2022 — 56% of the total. That pairing has won 22 (14%).
- Is Julia & Shelley Birkett in form?
- Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Julia & Shelley Birkett's Fair A/E?
- 1.16, from 280 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.