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Trainer profile

Julia & Shelley Birkett

280 runners in the last 5 seasons · 33 individual horses
As at 4 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner yesterday 99% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2025→)
from 1 Jan 2022
33–280
Wins / Runs
11.8%
Strike rate
n=280
89 (32%)
Placed
1.16
Fair A/E
n=280 · 0.99 incl. margin
−43.85
£1 level stake
n=280 at SP · −15.7%
£225k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
13.9%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 60 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 12% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.16).

Deterministic profile computed from 280 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 4 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Dylan Hogan: 14% from 157
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0% (n=37, Fair A/E 0.00). Dylan Hogan rides 56% of the entries and edges the yard's average (14% vs 11.8%, A/E 1.22) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well at trips under 6f (19.4%, n=31). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 0% over 32 runners, 11.8pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard on Good going: Fair A/E 0.66 across 52 runners (5.8% strike, −36.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Rusheen Boy (GB) — 5 wins from 24 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−11.8
n=37 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −37.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
4%−7.8
n=25 · A/E 0.57 · £1 −20.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−11.8
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−11.8
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−11.8
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
20%
n=20 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −9.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.2%−7.6
n=48 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −25.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 61-180-day break 0% vs 11.8% · n=32
On last-time-out winners 21.2% vs 11.8% · n=33
With claiming riders up 4.2% vs 11.8% · n=48
At trips under 6f 19.4% vs 11.8% · n=31
On Good going 5.8% vs 11.8% · n=52
With a new jockey booking 6.7% vs 11.8% · n=75
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 278 33 11.9% −41.85
Hurdle 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 126 18 14.3% +9.03
Good to Firm 61 8 13.1% +6.50
Good 52 3 5.8% −36.00
Good to Soft 23 1 4.3% −17.00
Soft 12 1 8.3% −9.38
Firm 5 2 40% +4.00
Heavy 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Yarmouth 50 7 14% +3.62
Southwell (AW) 40 6 15% +2.50
Wolverhampton (AW) 36 4 11.1% −7.00
Chelmsford City (AW) 28 5 17.9% −3.47
Leicester 17 0 0% −17.00
Windsor 15 1 6.7% −9.00
Brighton 13 0 0% −13.00
Kempton (AW) 12 2 16.7% +24.25
Bath 11 3 27.3% +0.50
Lingfield 9 1 11.1% +3.00
Nottingham 7 1 14.3% +0.00
Newmarket 7 1 14.3% −1.50
Newmarket 6 0 0% −6.00
Lingfield (AW) 6 1 16.7% −3.25
Epsom 5 1 20% +0.50

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 199 28 14.1% −1.85
Class 5 54 4 7.4% −20.50
Class 4 18 1 5.6% −12.50
Class 3 7 0 0% −7.00
Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 23 5 21.7% 0.79 −7.00
2nd–3rd fav 62 18 29% 1.72 +31.15
4th–6th fav 107 7 6.5% 0.79 −39.00
7th+ in betting 88 3 3.4% 1.12 −29.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Rusheen Boy (GB)from Julia Feilden 24 5 7 10 Oct 26
Show Biz Kid (IRE)from Julia Feilden 20 2 6 2 Nov 26
Sam's Xpress (IRE)from Kieran P Cotter 19 4 7 3 Nov 26
Heer's Sadie (GB)from Julia Feilden 19 3 5 30 Oct 26
Stintino Sunset (GB)from Julia Feilden 19 1 11 6 Oct 26
Smokey Malone (GB)from Julia Feilden 17 5 8 29 Oct 26
Top Biller (GB)from Jamie Osborne · then Denis Gerard Hogan 16 1 5 18 Jun 26
Diamond Ali (GB) 12 1 2 26 Oct 26
Grand Duchess Olga (GB)from Julia Feilden 12 1 7 24 Feb 26
Girls Allowed (IRE) 10 2 3 28 Oct 26
Mrs Meader (GB)from Julia Feilden 9 0 2 14 Mar 26
One For Harvey (GB)from Julia Feilden · then Clare Hobson 9 1 2 9 Oct 25
All 33 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 33 horses listed, 25 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Julia Feilden (15) and Alice Haynes (2); 8 had their first archived run for this yard.

5 have since run for another yard, most often for Darryll Holland (2); 28 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 6
Only 6 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
191901014131214511033
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDylan Hogan
56% of all rides
14% SR · A/E 1.22
RiderRWSR£1
Dylan Hogan 157 22 14% −1.97
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2025→
33
Archived wins
£225k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 17 wins
Zurna (GB) — End Of Summer Season Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race) Newmarket (July) · Aug 2026 · Class 4
£6,442
Rusheen Boy (GB) — Bet 10 Get 40 With BetMGM Handicap (Div 2) Southwell (AW) · Jan 2026 · Class 6
£4,711
Zurna (GB) — Betfred 'Follow Us On X' Handicap Epsom Downs · Jul 2026 · Class 5
£4,449
Notable horses
Rusheen Boy (GB) Smokey Malone (GB) Sam's Xpress (IRE) Heer's Sadie (GB) Show Biz Kid (IRE) Girls Allowed (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Coach House (IRE) 20.8% · 5–24
Progeny have won 8.6% of 2,479 runs since 2018 (145 horses).
Acclamation (GB) 10% · 2–20
Progeny have won 10% of 19,709 runs since 2008 (1,327 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15.2% from 151. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 6.7% from 195.
Fulbright (GB) 21.1% · 4–19
Progeny have won 6.7% of 629 runs since 2019 (52 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 9.8% from 215.
Heeraat (IRE) 15.8% · 3–19
Progeny have won 8% of 2,999 runs since 2018 (194 horses).
Twilight Son (GB) 5.3% · 1–19
Progeny have won 9.6% of 3,660 runs since 2020 (283 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 12.8% from 619.
Outstrip (GB) 29.4% · 5–17
Progeny have won 8.8% of 3,286 runs since 2019 (240 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 634. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.7% from 264.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 4 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 280 · newest first

The latest 50 of 280 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 1 January 2025 to 3 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Sam's Xpress (IRE)J: Dylan Hogan Midnite It's Actually Pretty Good Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 11/8F
02 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Show Biz Kid (IRE)J: Dylan Hogan Midnite A Next Generation Betting App Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9.5f · Standard · 9 ran 6th 18/1
30 Oct 26 Newmarket Heer's Sadie (GB)J: Warren Fentiman German G1 Racecourses Thank World Pool Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 14th 125/1
29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Smokey Malone (GB)J: Dylan Hogan Midnite Ain't Your Grandad's Bookie Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 33/1
28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Girls Allowed (IRE)J: Dylan Hogan Unibet's New VAR Goal Guarantee Handicap Stakes (London Mile Series Qualifier) (Div I)Class 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 1st 5/4F
26 Oct 26 Leicester Diamond Ali (GB)J: Dylan Hogan Fireworks Festival Here Saturday 7th November Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Soft · 16 ran 9th 12/1
20 Oct 26 Yarmouth Gemini Star (IRE)J: Dylan Hogan Brandford Restaurants & Bar Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 6f · Soft · 9 ran 4th 14/1
20 Oct 26 Yarmouth Regulus Black (GB)J: Ross Coakley Seadell Shops & Holiday Chalets Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Soft · 15 ran 3rd 33/1
12 Oct 26 Yarmouth Diamond Ali (GB)J: Dylan Hogan Moulton Racing Club Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 10th 11/1
12 Oct 26 Yarmouth Heer's Sadie (GB)J: Christian Howarth Moulton Racing Club Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good To Soft · 12 ran 5th 25/1
12 Oct 26 Yarmouth Sam's Xpress (IRE)J: Dylan Hogan Quinnbet Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 6th 33/1
10 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Rusheen Boy (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Erdinger Weissbier Stein Selling Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 14/1
09 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Girls Allowed (IRE)J: Dylan Hogan Unibet Supports Safer Gambling Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 1st 33/1
06 Oct 26 Brighton Stintino Sunset (GB)J: Dylan Hogan Bet £20 Get £40 In Free Bets At matchbook.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 5th 100/30
26 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Sam's Xpress (IRE)J: Dylan Hogan Gent's Night Sat 24th October Handicap StakesClass 6 · 5f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 3/1
24 Sep 26 Newmarket Zurna (GB)J: Dylan Hogan Budds Horseracing Memorabilia Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 6/1
21 Sep 26 Leicester Heer's Sadie (GB)J: Alice Bond Visit racingtv.com Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 14 ran 12th 50/1
21 Sep 26 Leicester Sheer Beauty (IRE)J: Dylan Hogan Racing Bet-Builder At Spreadex Sports Fillies' Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 14 ran 13th 80/1
19 Sep 26 Newmarket Majestic Ruler (IRE)J: Paddy Bradley Turners Of Soham Novice Stakes (gbb/gbbplus Race)Class 3 · 10f · Good · 10 ran 10th 300/1
17 Sep 26 Yarmouth Rusheen Boy (GB)J: Sean Levey LA Continental Cafe Of Great Yarmouth Handicap StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good · 14 ran 4th 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 6 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 4 runs (won 1) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 1) · to 29 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Julia & Shelley Birkett's strike rate?
Julia & Shelley Birkett has won 33 of 280 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 11.8% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Julia & Shelley Birkett do best at?
Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 6 wins from 40 runners (15%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Julia & Shelley Birkett?
Dylan Hogan, with 157 runners since 2022 — 56% of the total. That pairing has won 22 (14%).
Is Julia & Shelley Birkett in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 6 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Julia & Shelley Birkett's Fair A/E?
1.16, from 280 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 4 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).