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Trainer profile

Seb Spencer

544 runners in the last 5 seasons · 67 individual horses
As at 19 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 13 days ago 100% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2018→)
from 1 Jan 2022
43–544
Wins / Runs
7.9%
Strike rate
n=544
139 (26%)
Placed
1.02
Fair A/E
n=541 · 0.85 incl. margin
−144.16
£1 level stake
n=544 at SP · −26.5%
£416k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
4.5%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 110 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 8% of them — level with the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.02).

Deterministic profile computed from 544 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 19 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fires May–Jun Dale Swift: 8.8% from 374
The read

The record is strongest at Redcar (15.2%, n=33) and Catterick (14%, n=50) — all clear of the yard's 7.9% baseline. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.2% (n=89, Fair A/E 0.49). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 5.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.85 and −67.50 to a £1 stake over 123 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Dale Swift rides 69% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (8.8%, A/E 1.07) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 37 runners, 7.9pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard at trips under 6f: Fair A/E 0.41 across 66 runners (3% strike, −55.38 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Desert Dream (GB) — 5 wins from 54 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires May–Jun.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 7.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.2%−5.7
n=89 · A/E 0.49 · £1 −52.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
7.1%−0.8
n=42 · A/E 1.06 · £1 +40.50
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.9
n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.9
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
16.7%+8.8
n=24 · A/E 2.36 · £1 +9.33
When favourite
38.5%
n=26 · A/E 1.49 · £1 +7.18
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.7%−2.2
n=123 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −67.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.9
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners 18.8% vs 7.9% · n=48
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 7.9% · n=37
At Redcar 15.2% vs 7.9% · n=33
At Catterick 14% vs 7.9% · n=50
With C&D winners 12.8% vs 7.9% · n=109
At trips under 6f 3% vs 7.9% · n=66
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 542 43 7.9% −142.16
NH Flat 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 223 15 6.7% −90.19
Good 145 14 9.7% −24.55
Good to Firm 78 5 6.4% +7.08
Soft 47 6 12.8% −8.75
Good to Soft 45 3 6.7% −21.75
Heavy 6 0 0% −6.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Newcastle (AW) 95 5 5.3% −34.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 66 8 12.1% −4.02
Catterick 50 7 14% −9.92
Southwell (AW) 49 2 4.1% −39.17
Doncaster 49 4 8.2% −6.50
Thirsk 34 2 5.9% +38.00
Redcar 33 5 15.2% −2.42
Ayr 27 2 7.4% −6.50
York 17 0 0% −17.00
Beverley 16 0 0% −16.00
Nottingham 12 0 0% −12.00
Carlisle 11 2 18.2% +3.75
Hamilton 10 0 0% −10.00
Ripon 9 2 22.2% −0.50
Haydock 8 0 0% −8.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 208 20 9.6% −11.86
Class 5 184 15 8.2% −28.75
Class 4 109 8 7.3% −60.55
Class 3 28 0 0% −28.00
Class 2 14 0 0% −14.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 30 10 33.3% 1.34 +3.18
2nd–3rd fav 93 14 15.1% 0.97 −16.84
4th–6th fav 181 13 7.2% 0.98 −32.50
7th+ in betting 240 6 2.5% 0.84 −98.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Desert Dream (GB)from Michael Easterby 41 4 17 28 Oct 25
Archduke Ferdinand (IRE)from Tracy Waggott 33 5 11 13 Sep 26
Sense Of Worth (IRE)from Lee Carter 32 3 7 2 Jan 26
Crocodile Power (IRE)from John Quinn 29 4 14 21 May 26
Little Muddy (GB) 29 3 11 7 Jun 25
Muddy Lynn (GB) 20 2 5 17 Dec 24
Victory March (IRE)from Denis Gerard Hogan · then Rebecca Menzies 17 5 9 6 Nov 23
Vince Lombardi (GB)from Jim Boyle 14 3 5 30 Sep 26
Darla's Secret (IRE) 14 0 1 16 Mar 26
Bearaway (IRE)from Hughie Morrison · then Simon Pearce 14 0 2 20 Sep 24
Jenni (IRE)from David O'Meara · then Tony Coyle & Kaine Wood 13 1 2 23 Jul 26
Maveric's Magic (IRE) 12 0 2 1 May 25
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 67 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 36 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John & Sean Quinn (8) and Adrian Paul Keatley (2); 24 had their first archived run for this yard.

15 have since run for another yard, most often for John Wainwright (2) and Lawrence Mullaney (2); 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
4532119711610817
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDale Swift
69% of all rides
8.8% SR · A/E 1.07
RiderRWSR£1
Dale Swift 374 33 8.8% −42.91
Alex Jary 39 5 12.8% +2.00
Shay Farmer 34 2 5.9% −25.75
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2018→
47
Archived wins
£463k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 14 wins
Archduke Ferdinand (IRE) — JenningsBet Grey Horse Handicap Newmarket · Aug 2024 · Class 4
£10,308
Lorna B (IRE) — British EBF Fillies' Handicap Carlisle · Jul 2025 · Class 4
£8,505
Top Juggler (IRE) — John Smith's Handicap Chester · Jul 2026 · Class 4
£7,731
Notable horses
Desert Dream (GB) Archduke Ferdinand (IRE) Victory March (IRE) Little Muddy (GB) Crocodile Power (IRE) Sense Of Worth (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Oasis Dream (GB) 9.1% · 4–44
Progeny have won 11.8% of 17,996 runs since 2008 (1,509 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 17.3% from 150. Weakest on Heavy going: 8.5% from 482. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.1% from 790.
Kodiac (GB) 8.1% · 3–37
Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,530 runs since 2008 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 252.
Gutaifan (IRE) 15.2% · 5–33
Progeny have won 8.9% of 3,746 runs since 2008 (301 horses).
Street Sense (USA) 9.4% · 3–32
Progeny have won 11.2% of 510 runs since 2008 (62 horses). Weakest on Good going: 6.9% from 101.
Mr Medici (IRE) 10.3% · 3–29
Progeny have won 5.4% of 74 runs since 2008 (7 horses).
Slade Power (IRE) 13.8% · 4–29
Progeny have won 9.5% of 2,937 runs since 2008 (207 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.4% from 125.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 19 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 690 · newest first

The latest 50 of 690 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 19 January 2018 to 6 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
06 Oct 26 Leicester Soca Star (IRE)J: Shay Farmer Willpower Group Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 5th 11/1
02 Oct 26 Ascot Suspicious Mindz (GB)J: Dale Swift Colliers Business Rates Experts Classified StakesClass 3 · 8f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 8th 10/1
01 Oct 26 Nottingham Perineighs (IRE)J: Dale Swift Construction Day 14th Oct Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Good · 15 ran 10th 40/1
30 Sep 26 Catterick Sea The Power (FR)J: Dale Swift Amstel Gallop Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 12f · Good · 7 ran 6th 18/1
30 Sep 26 Catterick Vince Lombardi (GB)J: Dale Swift Bet At racingtv.com Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 9th 50/1
25 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Janora (IRE)J: Shay Farmer Mmb Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Standard · 5 ran 3rd 8/1
25 Sep 26 Haydock Great Dream (GB)J: Dale Swift Christopher Ward Watchmaking Handicap StakesClass 3 · 7f · Soft · 11 ran 10th 80/1
23 Sep 26 Redcar Night Wolf (GB)J: Dale Swift Weatherbys & Birdie Calendars Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good · 12 ran 9th 25/1
19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Muddy Marvellous (GB)J: Shay Farmer Quinnbet.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 50/1
19 Sep 26 Chester Top Juggler (IRE)J: Dale Swift Kidsbank Chester Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Heavy · 10 ran 8th 10/1
18 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) G'Emmethegreenlite (IRE)J: Shay Farmer Pertemps Network Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 12 ran 9th 80/1
18 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Enjoy The Night (IRE)J: Shay Farmer Jjx Logistics Going The Distance Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 7/2
17 Sep 26 Ayr Green Pursuit (IRE)J: Dale Swift Idp Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 6th 7/1
14 Sep 26 Thirsk Soca Star (IRE)J: Dale Swift decronhorsecare.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 3rd 14/1
13 Sep 26 Doncaster Archduke Ferdinand (IRE)J: Shay Farmer Duncan Pearce Memorial Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Good · 16 ran 10th 15/2
09 Sep 26 Redcar Sea The Power (FR)J: Dale Swift racingtv.com/freetrial Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 10f · Good · 11 ran 8th 40/1
06 Sep 26 York Great Dream (GB)J: Dale Swift Eboracum Security Handicap StakesClass 3 · 7f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 11th 50/1
05 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Perineighs (IRE)J: Dale Swift Download The Racecourse App Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 5 · 6f · Standard · 14 ran 4th 25/1
05 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Janora (IRE)J: Dale Swift Quinnbet Extra Place Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 4th 200/1
04 Sep 26 Ascot Suspicious Mindz (GB)J: Dale Swift Big Ascot Food & Wine Festival Classified StakesClass 3 · 7f · Good · 8 ran 2nd 18/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Seb Spencer's strike rate?
Seb Spencer has won 43 of 544 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 7.9% (as at 19 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Seb Spencer do best at?
Redcar by strike rate: 5 wins from 33 runners (15.2%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Seb Spencer?
Dale Swift, with 374 runners since 2022 — 69% of the total. That pairing has won 33 (8.8%).
Is Seb Spencer in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Seb Spencer's Fair A/E?
1.02, from 541 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 19 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).