What is Alan Brown's strike rate?

Alan Brown has won 73 of 775 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 9.4% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Alan Brown do best at?

Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 7 wins from 50 runners (14%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Alan Brown?

Rowan Scott, with 105 runners since 2022 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (9.5%).

Is Alan Brown in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Alan Brown's Fair A/E?

1.06, from 767 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Alan Brown

775 runners in the last 5 seasons · 50 individual horses

As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 4 days ago 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2022

73–775

Wins / Runs

9.4%

Strike rate

n=775

200 (26%)

Placed

1.06

Fair A/E

n=767 · 0.91 incl. margin

−99.41

£1 level stake

n=775 at SP · −12.8%

£557k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.6%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 160 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 9% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.06). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 21% (34 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 775 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Mar 27.3% when favourite Rowan Scott: 9.5% from 105 Headgear returns: 20.6% Claiming riders: 12.6% Sends off the favourite in 7% of races

The read

A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a positive signal at 20.6% (n=34, Fair A/E 2.45), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 4.9% (n=82, Fair A/E 1.25). Runners with a claiming rider up are the standout value angle: 12.6% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.28 and +55.24 to a £1 stake over 175 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. Rowan Scott rides 14% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.5%, A/E 1.03) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 0-7-day break (18.4%, n=49). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 0% over 47 runners, 9.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard in Class 4: Fair A/E 0.40 across 92 runners (2.2% strike, −34.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Meandmyshadow (GB) — 17 wins from 126 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Mar.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9.4% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

4.9%−4.5

n=82 · A/E 1.25 · £1 +11.50

New recruits · first run for the yard

12.5%+3.1

n=24 · A/E 2.38 · £1 +21.50

Debutants · first career start

0%−9.4

n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

5.3%−4.1

n=19 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −4.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

20.6%+11.2

n=34 · A/E 2.45 · £1 +125.40

When favourite

27.3%

n=55 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −7.46

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

12.6%+3.2

n=175 · A/E 1.28 · £1 +55.24

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Ryan Sexton 21.1% vs 9.4% · n=38

With headgear back on 20.6% vs 9.4% · n=34

Off a 61-180-day break 0% vs 9.4% · n=47

Off a 0-7-day break 18.4% vs 9.4% · n=49

In Class 4 2.2% vs 9.4% · n=92

On last-time-out winners 16.2% vs 9.4% · n=74

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 773 73 9.4% −97.41

NH Flat 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 499 53 10.6% −77.61

Good 115 7 6.1% −49.88

Good to Firm 83 6 7.2% +8.83

Good to Soft 38 2 5.3% −26.50

Soft 36 5 13.9% +49.75

Heavy 4 0 0% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Newcastle (AW) 301 31 10.3% −37.13

Southwell (AW) 123 13 10.6% −43.14

Wolverhampton (AW) 50 7 14% +16.33

Beverley 49 5 10.2% +3.08

Redcar 27 0 0% −27.00

Thirsk 27 2 7.4% −15.50

Hamilton 24 3 12.5% +28.00

Musselburgh 24 2 8.3% +30.25

Chelmsford City (AW) 20 2 10% −8.67

Pontefract 17 0 0% −17.00

Catterick 17 1 5.9% −8.50

Doncaster 16 0 0% −16.00

Ripon 15 1 6.7% −8.00

Carlisle 12 1 8.3% +22.00

York 11 0 0% −11.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 444 48 10.8% −19.27

Class 5 227 23 10.1% −34.14

Class 4 92 2 2.2% −34.00

Class 3 10 0 0% −10.00

Class 2 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 68 18 26.5% 1.07 −6.21

2nd–3rd fav 147 27 18.4% 1.16 −5.70

4th–6th fav 213 19 8.9% 1.07 +6.50

7th+ in betting 347 9 2.6% 0.83 −94.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Urban Road (GB) 65 9 24 16 Oct 26

Blackjack (GB) 59 6 18 17 Sep 26

Blackcurrent (GB) 56 7 19 27 Aug 25

Jems Bond (GB) 42 6 17 1 Mar 25

Wreck It Ryley (IRE)from Grant Tuer 38 4 14 12 Oct 26

Princess Niyla (GB)from Hugo Palmer 36 2 11 19 Sep 26

Embla (GB) 30 2 6 10 Aug 24

Crownthorpe (GB)from Richard Fahey 29 3 7 10 Jan 26

Atrafan (IRE) 29 6 12 20 Apr 24

Likeashadow (IRE) 28 2 9 30 Apr 25

Ice Shadow (IRE) 25 2 6 22 Nov 24

Rodborough (GB) 24 3 6 2 Jan 25

All 50 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 50 horses listed, 25 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Richard Fahey (3) and Gavin Cromwell (2); 25 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard, most often for Damien Wingrove (2); 47 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

0 from 4

Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons

JFMAMJJASOND

1515119133777796

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderRowan Scott

14% of all rides
9.5% SR · A/E 1.03

RiderRWSR£1

Rowan Scott 105 10 9.5% −18.17

Dale Swift 75 7 9.3% +3.75

Tom Eaves 71 4 5.6% −48.72

Paula Muir 48 7 14.6% +5.20

Barry McHugh 44 3 6.8% +59.00

Sean Kirrane 43 3 7% −10.50

Ryan Sexton 38 8 21.1% +11.88

Connor Beasley 30 5 16.7% −10.17

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

190

Archived wins

£1.19m

Prize money

2023

Best season · 27 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Malko De Beaumont (FR) — Sodexo Prestige Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase Haydock · Dec 2008 · Class 2

£22,768

River Logic (IRE) — Betfred Poker Juvenile Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Final) Newcastle · Dec 2006 · Class 2

£12,526

Malko De Beaumont (FR) — Lloyd Volvo Xc60 Handicap Chase Carlisle · Nov 2008 · Class 3

£9,758

Notable horses

Meandmyshadow (GB) Blackcurrent (GB) Jebel Tara (GB) Urban Road (GB) Sudden Impulse (GB) Atrafan (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Monsieur Bond (IRE) 13.2% · 18–136

Progeny have won 8.9% of 5,979 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.4% from 158.

Kuroshio (AUS) 10.1% · 7–69

Progeny have won 7.3% of 1,298 runs since 2008 (118 horses). Weakest on Good going: 3.8% from 288.

Sleeping Indian (GB) 10.2% · 6–59

Progeny have won 8.9% of 3,714 runs since 2008 (238 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 0.9% from 108.

Mayson (GB) 15.2% · 7–46

Progeny have won 10.7% of 7,363 runs since 2008 (442 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 13.8% from 1,726. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 2.8% from 106.

Night Of Thunder (IRE) 6.7% · 3–45

Progeny have won 16.3% of 5,064 runs since 2008 (561 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7% from 157.

Gutaifan (IRE) 10.5% · 4–38

Progeny have won 8.9% of 3,747 runs since 2008 (301 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 2,600 · newest first

The latest 50 of 2,600 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 12 May 2005 to 16 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Urban Road (GB)J: Sean Kirrane Margaret Macklam Memorial Handicap StakesClass 4 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 33/1

16 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Charlie Darling (FR)J: Sean Kirrane quinnbet.com Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12.5f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 66/1

12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Not Me (GB)J: Tom Eaves Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 7th 40/1

12 Oct 26 Newcastle (AW) Wreck It Ryley (IRE)J: Tom Eaves Download The Raceday Ready App Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 3rd 20/1

27 Sep 26 Epsom Wreck It Ryley (IRE)J: Hector Crouch Betfred 'Follow Us On X' Handicap StakesClass 4 · 7f · Good · 10 ran 7th 8/1

23 Sep 26 Redcar Lilac Dandy (GB)J: Tom Eaves Weatherbysshop.co.uk Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 7f · Good · 8 ran 8th 300/1

19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Princess Niyla (GB)J: Kyle McHugh Get The Inside Track With Raceday-ready.com Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 18/1

19 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Galistra (FR)J: Alistair Rawlinson Quinnbet Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12.5f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 125/1

17 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Blackjack (GB)J: Luke Morris Follow @AtTheRaces On X Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 16/1

17 Sep 26 Ayr Quiet Resolve (IRE)J: Tom Eaves Idp Supporting Care Through Better Purchasing Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 5 · 8f · Soft · 13 ran 9th 14/1

11 Sep 26 Doncaster Quiet Resolve (IRE)J: Gay Kelleway Betfred Leger Legends Classified StakesClass 5 · 8f · Good · 13 ran 12th 40/1

05 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Wish This (GB)J: Tom Eaves Free Tips On attheraces.com Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 11/1

05 Sep 26 Haydock Wreck It Ryley (IRE)J: Ray Dawson HKJC World Pool Handicap StakesClass 3 · 7f · Soft · 11 ran 11th 33/1

05 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Princess Niyla (GB)J: Alex Jary Quinnbet.com Fillies' Handicap StakesClass 5 · 12.5f · Standard · 6 ran 6th 11/1

03 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Bantz (IRE)J: Rowan Scott Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 3rd 10/1

02 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Galistra (FR)J: Tom Eaves Mini Golf At High Gosforth Park Handicap StakesClass 6 · 10f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 50/1

01 Sep 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Blackjack (GB)J: Ray Dawson Free Tips On Attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 13/2

24 Aug 26 Musselburgh Bantz (IRE)J: Tom Eaves Watch On Racing TV Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Good · 13 ran 7th 22/1

24 Aug 26 Musselburgh Princess Niyla (GB)J: Tom Eaves 'Celebrating Veteran Armed Forces' Selling Handicap StakesClass 5 · 9f · Good · 11 ran 3rd 14/1

21 Aug 26 Hamilton Wreck It Ryley (IRE)J: Cieren Fallon Patersons Of Greenoakhill Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 7th 4/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Alan Brown's strike rate?: Alan Brown has won 73 of 775 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 9.4% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Alan Brown do best at?: Wolverhampton (AW) by strike rate: 7 wins from 50 runners (14%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Alan Brown?: Rowan Scott, with 105 runners since 2022 — 14% of the total. That pairing has won 10 (9.5%).
Is Alan Brown in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Alan Brown's Fair A/E?: 1.06, from 767 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.