Elle-May Croot
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 90 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.04). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 18% (33 rides). Rides mostly for Ivan Furtado — 88% of rides in the window.
The record is strongest at Newcastle (AW) (14%, n=50), clear of the rider's 7.5% baseline. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 18.2% (n=33, Fair A/E 1.31), but horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 0% (n=55, Fair A/E 0.00). Ivan Furtado supplies 88% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8%, A/E 1.08) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The rider also reads well on Good to Firm going (13.2%, n=38) and over 1m5f – 2m (13.3%, n=30). The record reads poorly off a 61-180-day break — 0% over 43 rides, 7.5pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the rider on Good going: Fair A/E 0.45 across 55 rides (3.6% strike, −48.77 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The standout partner of the record: Bowood (GB) — 5 wins from 26 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Feb–Apr.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.5% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.5% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleBy month
strike by month, 5 seasonsRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2021→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 484 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 484 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 2 January 2021 to 24 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Elle-May Croot's strike rate?
- Elle-May Croot has won 33 of 442 rides since 2022, a strike rate of 7.5% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Elle-May Croot do best at?
- Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 7 wins from 50 rides (14%) since 2022. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Elle-May Croot ride most for?
- Ivan Furtado, with 388 rides since 2022 — 88% of the total. That pairing has won 31 (8%).
- Is Elle-May Croot in form?
- Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 2 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Elle-May Croot's Fair A/E?
- 1.04, from 437 rides with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.